This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Bets: 2024 College Football Win Totals Wagers for ACC
We're rounding the corner and heading for the 2024 NCAA Football regular season. And, the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) will have quite a different look this season, as the league folds in new members California, Southern Methodist and Stanford.
It's rather strange to see a league with 17 teams. It's also rather strange to see a league named Atlantic, with two teams bordering the Pacific Ocean, and one from Dallas. It's going to take some getting used to.
The college football landscape continues to change rapidly. After another crazy transfer portal period, and a juggling of the conference scheduling process, we'll take a look at the best regular-season win total bets for the 2024 season.
RotoWire has up-to-date college football win totals for every team this season as kickoff approaches. Dig into the best sportsbook promos to get a jump start on your college football betting this season, like the offer available with the BetMGM bonus code.
Duke Blue Devils Win Totals (4.5 at ESPNBet)
Heading into the 2024 season, the Blue Devils will have quite a different look. Head coach Mike Elko did an amazing job in Durham. The Blue Devils fired out of the chute last season, landing in the Top 25 for a time. I went to the game against Notre Dame, and the Blue Devils were one fourth-down stop away from one of the biggest regular-season wins in school history.
However, on that fateful play, QB Riley Leonard, who is now with Notre Dame, ironically enough, suffered an injury, and the season started to spiral a little out of control. The Blue Devils still ended up with eight total wins, a Birmingham Bowl win over Troy, and renewed optimism for 2024.
Elko went back to Texas A&M to take the head coaching gig, and no one can fault him for making that jump. The Blue Devils turn to Manny Diaz to steer the ship. He had his first chance as a head coach at Miami (Fla.) from 2019-21, going 21-15, and 0-2 in bowls, before being fired on Dec. 6, 2021. He then spent the past two seasons as the defensive coordinator at Penn State. The Nittany Lions were 2nd in the nation in total defense, and that's his calling card. Expect Duke to be nasty defensively.
As far as the offense goes, QB Maalik Murphy transfers in from Texas to give Diaz and the Blue Devils athleticism and experience under center, with Grayson Loftis at the ready, should he be needed. And with RB Jaquez Moore and WR Jordan Moore back at the skill positions, Duke has some potential on offense if it can stay healthy.
The schedule sets up well for Duke to get off to another fast start. Home games against Elon and UConn, and road trips to Northwestern and Middle Tennessee, should mean at least three wins barring a disaster. Can Duke find at least three or four wins in the conference schedule?
Unfortunately for Duke, while it misses Clemson, it has to face Miami and NC State on the road, two ACC teams ranked in The Associated Press' Top 25, as well as a home date with Florida State. And rival North Carolina heads up 15-501 from Chapel Hill for the Victory Bell battle Sept. 28. It also faces teams with potential to be ranked, such as SMU, Virginia Tech at home. Trips to Georgia Tech and Wake Forest will be no bargain, either.
Bowl eligibility at 6-6 will be a stretch, even with a nasty defense, but seven or more wins looks like a stretch with this challenging schedule. A finishing mark of 5-7 or lower looks a lot more likely. If you shop around, you can find an Over/Under of 4.5 wins, such as ESPNBet. This roster doesn't look like a team capable of a winning record, but it also doesn't look like an 8- or 9-loss team, either.
Duke Win Totals Best Bet
- OVER 4.5 WINS (-160 at ESPNBet)
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Miami (Fla.) Win Totals (9.5 at FanDuel)
The U is back! We've heard that message every season for the past two decades. Miami is showered with tremendous praise, expectations are sky-high that this program will return to the glory days...and then reality sets in. Head coach Mario Cristobal is in Year 3, and he is just 12-13 so far. Howard Schnellenberger, Jimmy Johnson, even Dennis Erickson, Mario is not...or at least he hasn't been.
Usually, it takes a while to find out if Miami is a contender or a pretender. But, we'll find out Aug. 31 when the Hurricanes battle the Florida Gators in Gainesville whether the preseason hype and ranking in the Top 25 is warranted.
The non-conference schedule, which features Florida A&M, Ball State and South Florida, should be a walk in the park after the Florida game. Miami misses Clemson and NC State, as well as North Carolina, on the schedule. The only current ranked opponent is Florida State, and that game is at Hard Rock Stadium.
However, road trips to Cal, Georgia Tech, Louisville and Syracuse will be daunting, and it's not hard to see three losses despite a bevy of unranked teams. Miami also seems to have more bark than bite, and it finds way to lose late games against unranked teams. Under is the safe play with Miami, as it just cannot be trusted.
Miami (Fla.) Win Totals Best Bet
- UNDER 9.5 WINS (-155 at FanDuel)
Pittsburgh Panthers Win Totals (5.5 at BetMGM)
The Panthers have an uphill battle to get to six victories, and bowl eligibility, but at least Pittsburgh has just one team ranked in The AP Top 25 on the schedule - Clemson.
The Panthers will not have to face Florida, Miami or NC State, and the Clemson game is at home. That's great news. In addition, Pitt gets early-season lay-ups against Kent State and Youngstown State to get the ball rolling.
Pitt is going to have to figure out a way to win on the road, something it didn't do in 2023, going 0-5, as well as 0-1 in a neutral-site battle with Syracuse.
However, the schedule is a lot more friendly than it was last season, too. The Panthers have the potential to win six games at home, as long as the injury bug doesn't strike. If Pitt wins at Cincinnati on Sept. 7, Over bettors will be able to feel really good about their ticket. But if Pitt opens 1-2, with losses to Cincinnati and West Virginia, it's going to be a nail-biter of a season. I'm optimistic about Pitt, especially since RB Rodney Hammond Jr. is back, as well as TE Gavin Bartholomew and WR Konata Mumpfield.
Pittsburgh Win Totals Best Bet
- OVER 5.5 WINS (+120 at BetMGM)
SMU Mustangs Win Totals (8.5 at FanDuel)
The Mustangs make the transition to the ACC, and of the three new teams coming in, SMU might have the best opportunity of challenging for a spot in the upper division. In fact, the Mustangs are fully expected to go bowling.
However, the question will be whether head coach Rhett Lashlee's team is ready for the move from the American Athletic Conference (AAC) to the ACC, considered a big step up. The SMU job is Lashlee's first head coaching gig, and he is 18-9 in his first two seasons. However, his last stop was as the quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator at Miami (Fla.), an ACC team, from 2020-21.
The Mustangs won 11 games last season, going 8-0 in the AAC to win the conference, although SMU lost in the Fenway Bowl against Boston College, an ACC team. Those teams have a rematch in Dallas on Nov. 16, by the way.
Looking at the schedule, SMU will face two Big 12 teams in the offseason schedule, BYU and TCU, but at least it gets those two games at home. The Mustangs also avoid Clemson, Miami and NC State, three of four teams ranked in the preseason AP Top 25 poll. SMU will have to face Florida State, however, but at least it is at home. And, FSU is the only ranked team in the preseason poll on the SMU schedule.
Breaking it down, SMU should be able to make it through September with at least two or three wins. Trips to Louisville and Duke in October might make the difference between cashing Over or Under on the season win total. But even the most optimistic team SMU fan and bettor has to look at this schedule and see eight wins as the ceiling, as they acclimate to the big time, and all of the travel that comes with the new season.
SMU Mustangs Win Totals Best Bet
- UNDER 8.5 WINS (-128 at FanDuel)
ACC Win Totals Best Bets
- Duke OVER 4.5 WINS (-160 at ESPNBet)
- Miami UNDER 9.5 WINS (-155 at FanDuel)
- Pitt OVER 5.5 WINS (+120 at BetMGM)
- SMU UNDER 8.5 WINS (-128 at FanDuel)
