This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: UNLV vs. Kansas
Games like the Guaranteed Rate Bowl are why I still dig bowl season. Either Kansas or UNLV is going to win a bowl game to end the year. The Jayhawks could go 9-4! The Rebels (apparently only the men's hoops team is Runnin') could go 10-4! These are two programs with limited success on the football field. One of them gets to end an unusually good season with a bowl win. Also, games like this (which kicks off Tuesday night at 9 p.m. ET) give us more betting opportunities, which is always nice. That goes double when a team from Vegas is involved.
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UNLV vs. Kansas Betting Odds for the Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Spread: Kansas -12.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook), UNLV +13 (ESPN BET Sportsbook)
Total: 66.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook), 67.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Kansas -450 (BetMGM Sportsbook), UNLV +400 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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When Barry Odom's Rebels squad was having their best season in ages, even at the end of the year, the lines were coming in and making them underdogs. In the Mountain West title game, Boise State was the favorite, and not by a limited margin. The talk was that Vegas-based bettors, who are vast in number and wizened through experience, had seen too much of the local team over the years to believe in UNLV when it comes to football. Then, Boise State smashed UNLV 44-20. Anyway, doesn't seem like those setting the lines are any more enthused about UNLV in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl.
UNLV vs. Kansas Betting Picks for the Guaranteed Rate Bowl
The big loss for the Jayhawks is not on the field but on the sideline. Andy Kotelnicki, an esteemed offensive coordinator, was poached by Penn State, where esteemed offensive coordinators go to die. However, Lance Leipold's crew have had to deal with adversity all season. Jalon Daniels, the team's ostensible offensive star, barely played this year. Jason Bean fit in admirably at quarterback, and Devin Neal has not announced he is going to sit this one out, even though he probably has an NFL future. Kansas finished the season 33rd in SP+, in the top half offensively, defensively and on special teams.
UNLV didn't end up losing Barry Odom to a bigger job, but it did end the year with back-to-back losses. Honestly, there is not a single impressive win among the nine the program picked up in 2023. Perhaps owing to the opportunity to go down as one of the best, maybe the best, team in UNLV history, none of the key offensive cogs are sitting out for Odom. UNLV finished 49th in SP+, but with a defense that ranks 89th, a clear weak spot among these two teams emerges.
Are the Jayhawks two touchdowns better than the Rebels on a neutral field? If you don't think that, you take UNLV +13, clearly. That's a big line for a bowl game, especially with two teams that are largely intact. Some of these bowl games have gone exactly like I expected, but bowl season remains unpredictable in the bigger picture. I don't think Kansas is "pick as a heavy favorite" level good, so I'll take the points.
UNLV vs. Kansas Best Bet: UNLV +13 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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UNLV vs. Kansas Predictions for the Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Assuming Neal plays, he should be able to run on the Rebels. However, there's a reason why Bean lost the starting gig to Daniels backs in 2021, and only has gotten playing time the last two years due to Daniels' injuries. He's an experienced game manager, but the coordinator that helped him manage games is gone. Jayden Maiava is not the best quarterback, but UNLV has three backs that ran for more than 450 yards and a receiver in Ricky White who had 81 catches for 1,386 yards and seven touchdowns. Kansas deserves to be the favorite. If I was just picking a winner, I'd take the Jayhawks. However, I am not so sure they win comfortably. These should be two motivated teams. I hope they deliver in the desert. Kansas, led by Neal, likely wins in a close one, perhaps after some early kinks in the offense. UNLV could win, though. That's the mystery of bowl season.
