Using data from TeamRankings.com, RotoWire.com pulled out the most lucky and unlucky college football teams among the Power 4 conferences, based on the luck rankings from Week 1 of the season. We also ranked the conferences against one another based on average team rankings in terms of luck, with the Big Ten having the best overall luck score.
Keep up with our rankings all season as you peruse sports betting apps ahead of the weekend matchups.
Most Lucky Power 4 Teams
Rank | Team | Lucky Rating |
1 | Florida State Seminoles | 0.6 |
T2 | Miami Hurricanes | 0.5 |
T2 | LSU Tigers | 0.5 |
T4 | Iowa State Cyclones | 0.4 |
T4 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.4 |
T4 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | 0.4 |
T4 | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 0.4 |
T8 | Auburn Tigers | 0.3 |
T8 | Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 0.3 |
T8 | Kentucky Wildcats | 0.3 |
T8 | Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 0.3 |
T8 | NC State Wolfpack | 0.3 |
When it comes to luck, the Week 1 leaders were the Florida State Seminoles, who pulled down a lucky rating of 0.6 after drubbing Alabama, 31-17, in Tallahassee on Saturday afternoon.
The 'Noles wound up winning by two scores over the Crimson Tide, despite being outgunned in the passing game, 254-to-152 (yardage wise), making up for that by gashing the SEC power's defense for 230 yards on 49 attempts on the ground.
Florida State's luck score was also bolstered by the team's edge over Alabama, despite failing to force a single Crimson Tide turnover in the contest, speaking to the benefit that comes from playing sound football, with FSU limiting their mistakes to four penalties for 40 yards and a single lost fumble, while the visitors from the Yellowhammer State had eight infractions for 70 yards in the contest.
Outside of the Alabama-FSU upset, the teams that benefitted the most from a bit of good luck were LSU and Miami, who notched matching lucky scores of 0.5 in their respective victories over Clemson and Notre Dame.
In the Tigers' case, Brian Kelly's team managed to pull off a 17-10 win in 'Death Valley,' despite committing twice the number of turnovers (2-to-1) and struggling through a 4-for-11 day on third down conversion attempts.
They did all that, thanks to the Tigers' swarming defense, which limited Clemson to 261 yards of offense and 31 yards on the ground, while limiting the other Tigers' time of possession to 22:50 (to LSU's 37:10), earning them the No. 2 spot on our luckiest teams list this week.
In Miami's case, the Hurricanes emerged with a 27-24 victory over No. 6 Notre Dame on Sunday by holding on for dear life after a hot start, going from being up 21-7 at the end of the third to being engaged in a knock-down, bare knuckle fight, with kicker Carter Davis sealing the contest with a 47-yard field goal in the game's final minutes to ensure a three-point victory for Mario Cristobal's team.
Outside of those three, the other CFB teams that scored well, luck wise, were Iowa State, Ohio State, Nebraska and Georgia Tech, who all had matching 0.4 lucky scores, while five teams (Auburn, Rutgers, Kentucky, Wake Forest and NC State) rounded out the collective with dueling 0.3 lucky scores.
Most Unlucky Power 4 Teams
Rank | Team | Lucky Rating |
1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | -0.6 |
2 | Clemson Tigers | -0.5 |
3 | Cincinnati Bearcats | -0.4 |
T4 | Kansas State Wildcats | -0.3 |
T4 | Baylor Bears | -0.3 |
T6 | Northwestern Wildcats | -0.2 |
T6 | Virginia Tech Hokies | -0.2 |
T6 | Syracuse Orange | -0.2 |
9 | North Carolina Tar Heels | -0.1 |
10 | Arkansas Razorbacks | 0.0 |
While FSU's win over Alabama has already been covered, the converse of the 'Noles good luck ultimately bit the Crimson Tide, with the SEC stalwarts pulling down the worst lucky rating of the week, at -0.6.
Head coach Kalen DeBoer's bunch managed to fall by 14 points to FSU, despite getting 254 passing yards in Ty Simpson's debut and 146 yards on eight catches from wideout Germie Bernard, speaking to the bad tidings that awaited the Crimson Tide in Tallahassee on Saturday afternoon.
Outside of Alabama, the other team with the worst luck this week was Clemson, who lost that 17-10 game to LSU at home despite QB Cade Klubnik throwing or 230 yards in the contest and the Tigers' defense forcing two LSU fumbles on the night.
All of that led to a lucky score of -0.5 for Clemson, putting the Tigers ahead of other CFB teams like the Cincinnati Bearcats (-0.4), Kansas State Wildcats and Baylor Bears (-0.3 each).
Of that trio, only Kansas State managed to win their contest this weekend, with the Wildcats surviving a valiant upset bid by North Dakota of the FCS ranks, with a 38-35 final score, while Cincinnati fell to Nebraska in Kansas City, 20-17, while the Bears lost to Auburn, 38-24.
Five others, in Northwestern, Virginia Tech and Syracuse (-0.2 lucky scores each), UNC (-0.1 lucky score) and Arkansas (0.0 lucky score) rounded out the list of this week's unlucky college football teams, illustrating just how true the adage that football is a game of inches is in reality.
Power 4 Conference Luck Index
Rank | Conference | Average Team Ranking |
1 | Big Ten | 20 |
2 | SEC | 21 |
3 | ACC | 25 |
4 | Big 12 | 28 |
When broken down on a conference-by-conference level, the Big Ten was the luckiest collective this week, with an average team ranking of 20, finishing just ahead of the SEC's ranking (21) and the ACC's figure, which wound up at 25.
Of the Power Four conferences, the Big 12 had the worst luck of the lot, with an average team ranking of 28, speaking to the bad bounces that ultimately hindered the teams that call the expanded conference home in Week 1 of the season.
Unsurprisingly, when it comes to college football betting, the conference that fares the best, CFP title wise, is the Big Ten, with members like Ohio State (+550) and Penn State (+600) currently atop the worldwide betting brand's odds board after Week 1 of the season, while Georgia (+650), Texas (+750), LSU (+1000) and Oregon (+1200) are next in line in the chase to take home the sport's grandest prize.
Q&A:
Q: Which Power 4 college football team was ranked the luckiest after Week 1?
A: According to TeamRankings.com data compiled by RotoWire, the Florida State Seminoles were ranked the luckiest Power 4 team after Week 1, posting a luck rating of 0.6. Miami and LSU followed closely behind at 0.5, while Iowa State, Ohio State, Nebraska, and Georgia Tech were tied at 0.4.
Q: Who were the unluckiest Power 4 teams in Week 1 of the college football season?
A: The Alabama Crimson Tide topped the "unlucky" list with a luck rating of -0.6, followed by Clemson (-0.5) and Cincinnati (-0.4). Other teams struggling with bad breaks included Kansas State, Baylor, and Northwestern, all finishing with negative scores in the Week 1 luck rankings.
Q: Which Power 4 conference had the best overall luck score in Week 1?
A: The Big Ten came out on top with the highest average team luck ranking (20), making it the "luckiest" conference of Week 1. The SEC ranked second (21), followed by the ACC (25), while the Big 12 was the unluckiest Power 4 conference with an average team ranking of 28.
