College Football Picks: Ohio State vs Illinois Best Bets
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The Ohio State Buckeyes travel to Champaign, Illinois to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini with the hopes of staying undefeated this season. Illinois is trying to stay in the Big Ten race as it enters with a conference loss already, another loss and it's probably curtains for the Illini's chances at making the Big Ten Championship game. Ohio State has bigger things in mind as the Buckeyes have their eyes set on the CFB, which is almost a certainty if they continue to play like they have in the first six weeks of the season.
Ohio State vs Illinois Betting Odds for Week 7
Spread: Ohio State -14.5 (BetMGM); Illinois +14.5 (ESPN Bet)
Total: Over 50.5 (Caesars Sportsbook), Under 50.5 (BetMGM)
Money line: Ohio State -620 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Illinois +500 (Caesars Sportsbook)
This line opened at Ohio State -13.5 and has crept up to the magic number of 14.5. It will take a lot to get higher than that, however, as it's settled there over the past day or so. The total opened at 50.5 and has not moved.
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Ohio State vs Illinois Betting Picks for Week 7
This is a battle of two of the best Big Ten teams, both ranked in the top-20 right now, but for many betters, it will be hard to shake the memory of Illinois getting trucked by Indiana last month. In the minds of many, this doesn't seem like two evenly matched teams; it's one contender and one pretender.
That's in the minds of many; however, that's not necessarily reality. Illinois certainly took its lumps against Indiana this past month, but it rebounded with impressive wins over USC and Purdue.
It's tough to get a true feel for Illinois by looking at the stats because the Indiana game inflated all of its defensive metrics, but even outside of that game, the defense has been an issue. Illinois allowed 27 points at Purdue and 32 to USC, which isn't the end of the world, but I dare say Ohio State is bringing a better offense than either of those two teams. On offense, the Illini have been a bit one-dimensional. They rank in the top-40 through the air, but they barely crack the top-100 on the ground. A lack of balance could definitely be a problem this week.
Ohio State, meanwhile, is doing just about everything right this season. The defense is ahead of the offense, but the offense might have found something this past week against Minnesota. The offense ranks top-30 through the air, but just 56th in yards per game on the ground this season. The defense, meanwhile, has been terrific, ranking 21st in rushing yards allowed per game and 4th against the pass. It's that number against the pass that could prove problematic for the home team on Saturday.
Complacency might be Ohio State's biggest enemy for the rest of the season, as the Buckeyes only have two ranked teams left on their schedule and none in the top-10, thanks to Penn State's downward spiral. With the schedule opening up, I expect Ryan Day to place a higher priority on this game, as Illinois is likely Ohio State's toughest test until the Michigan game in November.
With that in mind, I'm expecting the Buckeyes to bring their best game and put the hurt on the Illini. If Illinois was more balanced on offense or if it didn't have such a gaping hole on defense, I think this would be a more competitive game, but as long as Ohio State shows up, it'll win by a healthy margin.
Ohio State vs. Illinois Expert Pick: Ohio State -14.5 (BetMGM)
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Ohio State vs. Illinois Predictions for Week 7
I'm going to start by stating that I don't hold Illinois' game at Indiana against them, or at least, I'm not picking against the Illini because they were blown out at Indiana. Those types of games happen; sometimes things just get out of hand.
With that said, as mentioned previously, they have a considerable problem stopping the pass, and it looks like the Buckeyes got their passing game going this past week, so there's no reason to think they'll have trouble moving the ball. On the other side, I don't see how Illinois can move the ball, as its only successful avenue so far this season has been through the air, and that's just not going to work against OSU.
The early start isn't helping matters either. Illinois doesn't generally have a huge home-field advantage, and adding an early start only negates any advantage it had.
Ohio State is going to come out firing through the air, and with little resistance from the other side, the Buckeyes are going to build an early lead, take away the home-field advantage entirely, and start to cruise.
The only scenario where Illinois keeps this close is if it starts hot and somehow rattles OSU, but I don't see that happening.
Ohio State 38 - Illinois 13
