Start vs. Sit: Who to Play, Who to Bench Week 3

Welcome to the Week 3 edition of Start vs. Sit. We may be lacking in ranked matchups but there are still some exciting games on tap with Iowa taking on Iowa State, Florida heading to Kentucky and USC going to BYU. Oh, and the Washington State-Houston game will hold all of the fantasy community's attention Friday night as well. Let's dive into this week's toughest start- sit decisions heading into Week 3.

AAC

START

D'Eriq King, QB, Houston (vs. Washington State)

Two weeks in and I'm already sensing some panic in the Twitterverse about King's slow start. It's fair to an extent — you'd want your No. 1 overall pick to have a little bit better than 51.5 fantasy points through two weeks. If this is giving your flashbacks of having your Khalil Tate shares from last season go up in smoke, I can't fully blame you. Below are the game logs from King's first two games from 2019 and Tate's first two outings from 2018 when he was getting acclimated to coach Kevin Sumlin's system.

What's concerning with King's early start to the season is his ineffectiveness as a passer in this new system. King was completing nearly 64 percent of his passes, a sample of 487 attempts, with an 8.8 YPA before this season. This year, he's down to 54.7 percent with a 5.8 YPA. With all of his top receivers from 2018 still in the fold, what gives? It's hard to say one way or the other just yet. 

King's slow start has come against two vastly different opponents. In the opener, he was on the road against an improved Oklahoma defense. In Week 2, he went against an FCS-level defense, and Houston might not have necessarily been giving its A-Grade effort. This weekend's game against Washington State should give us a useful glimpse of what King can be under this new system. I just believe that King has done too much in his career to rattle our confidence in him after two games with abnormal circumstances.

SIT

Jager Gardner, RB, Temple (vs. Maryland)

Gardner will be ready to roll for the Owls coming off a bye, but this is a concerning setup for him. For one, Temple is more than a touchdown underdog at home, and even that line might be light. If Maryland gets out to a hot start with its offense, Temple will have to shift into catch-up mode in a hurry, which means the run game will be left by the wayside. 

Even if Temple keeps this close, Gardner is in jeopardy of losing carries. He scored two touchdowns in the opener but it was Re'Mahn Davis who was more explosive in the backfield and more involved in the passing game. There's also the matter of the matchup itself. Maryland held a competent Syracuse rushing offense to just 70 yards on 29 carries (2.41 YPC) in Week 2 Gardner has too many risk factors to be started with confidence against the Terrapins.

ACC

START

Zonovan Knight, RB, North Carolina (-6.5) at West Virginia

Vegas might not have caught up to how bad West Virginia is just yet, with NC State going up to Morgantown as just a touchdown favorite. This will be the first road start for quarterback Matt McKay, so the run game figures to be a significant part of the Pack's plan of attack.

Knight has established himself as the leader of this backfield, taking 27 carries for 161 yards and three scores through two games. No other NC Stat running back has more than 15 rushes or more than 108 rushing yards. West Virginia ranks 88th in the nation in yards per carry allowed at 4.12, and that's having gone against James Madison and Missouri. North Carolina State likely has the best rushing attack that West Virginia will have faced and Knight looks like he's a star in the making. Fire him up for this matchup. 

A deeper cut of a recommendation is Zay Flowers, a freshman on Boston College. In two games, Flowers has recorded two catches for 91 yards and a touchdown along with six carries for 117 yards and a touchdown. That's 26 yards per touch to start his career. He gets to face Kansas this week and might be a sneaky-good play in deeper formats.

I'd also start Maurice Ffrench in PPR formats. Saturday might get ugly for the Panthers but his bottom line should be fine thanks to sheer volume alone.

SIT

Trishton Jackson, WR, Syracuse (+27.5) vs. Clemson

Jackson's line from Week 2 in a blowout loss (seven catches, 157 yards, two touchdowns) might give his owners some confidence to start him again in what could be a similar situation this week. I'm not so sure. Clemson is coming off a hard-fought game against Texas A&M but won't be in letdown mode given how the last two matchups with Syracuse have gone. The Tigers have the No. 4 defense in the nation per S&P+, so it'll be markedly tougher for Jackson to even rack up garbage time production. Meanwhile, the numbers he put up against Maryland were against the No. 64 defense. Jackson is the Syracuse receiver to own in the long run, but he's one I'd strongly consider benching in Week 3.

BIG 12

START

Armand Shyne, RB, Texas Tech (-2.5) at Arizona

All of your pieces of the Texas Tech passing game are in play, of course, but Shyne is worth consideration as well.  He only saw eight carries in Week 2 and has to compete with the likes of Ta'Zhawn Henry and SaRodorick Robinson for snaps in the backfield. The competition for carries is a legitimate knock against him. That said, no other Texas Tech back is as effective as Shyne is as a pure rusher, as he averages nearly 9.0 yards per carry. He faces an Arizona defense that ranks 120th in S&P+, and given the high over/under in this game, it'd be surprising if Shyne didn't get in on the scoring action.

SIT

Brock Purdy, QB, Iowa State (+2) vs. Iowa

The battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy promises to be a good one even though Iowa State got off on a rocky start this year with a triple-overtime game against Northern Iowa and didn't get to exercise its demons while on by last week. On the other side we have Iowa, which has rolled to a 2-0 start with a 68-14 scoring differential and a top-20 ranking in both the polls and the S&P+ metrics. 

Purdy has the added bonus of being at home for this matchup, but I'm still on the fence with him. He looked over-reliant on Deshaunte Jones and not comfortable enough with his other passing game options in Week 1, showing that it could take some time for this offense to hit its stride in the post-Hakeem Butler era. If Iowa puts the clamps on Jones, it'll be on Purdy to create with receivers he hasn't proven to have a rapport with.

BIG TEN

START

KJ Hamler, WR, Penn State (-17) vs. Pittsburgh

The Week 2 dud against Buffalo needs to be forgiven as Hamler heads into a prime matchup this week against Pittsburgh. Although Hamler had just three catches against the Bulls, he had seven targets to lead all Penn State receivers (tight end Pat Freiermuth had a team-high nine targets). Hamler is Penn State's most dangerous receiver, averaging 10.3 yards per target dating to last season. He won't be held to less than 50 percent on his catch rate against a Panthers pass defense that has yet to face a receiver or a passing game of this caliber yet this season.

SIT

Brian Lewerke, QB, Michigan State (-13.5) vs. Arizona State

It's not so much that I expect Lewerke to struggle in this spot against Arizona State. It's about the context. We're looking at the lowest implied total of any game involving a Big Ten team, with Lewerke's team favored by nearly two touchdowns. Lewerke the rusher seems to be a thing of the past (we'll always have 2017), so we're relying on him to post starter-worthy numbers through the air in what projects to be a slow-paced and low-scoring affair where Michigan State is nursing a lead. He should be fine on a per-throw basis (63.8 completion rate, 7.3 YPA), it's just a matter of him having enough volume to post a viable stat line for fantasy purposes. I'd bet against that this week.

C-USA

START

Your Charlotte 49ers (-18.5) vs. Massachusetts

I couldn't give a bigger green light to the Niners this week as heavy home favorites against a Massachusetts team that is ... a Massachusetts team. The Minutemen rank 129th in defensive S&P+, ahead of only Georgia State (sorry, Tennessee). Meanwhile, Charlotte ranks right in the middle of the FBS in offense (64) with plenty of viable options in play for this weekend. Running back Benny LeMay is the star of the show with two 100-yard, two-touchdown outings to start the season. He's the engine of the offense and is set to continue his torrid start this weekend. Victor Tucker had a huge bounce back game against Appalachian State in Week 2 with six catches for 90 yards and two scores, showing why he is the top target in this offense. Quarterback Chris Reynolds is also an interesting streaming option after throwing for four touchdowns on App State and he's a sneaky contributor on the ground, having rushed for more than 100 yards and two touchdowns already this season. Any starting 49ers out on your waiver wire can be picked up and immediately inserted into your lineups this weekend. Go! Go! Go!

SIT

DeAndre Torrey, RB, North Texas at California

The whole North Texas offense could be in trouble this week in Berkeley as it faces one of the nation's top defenses. California is a heavy favorite (13.5) in a projected low-scoring matchup, and Vegas' implied total for the Mean Green comes out to just 18.75 points. If North Texas' offense can struggle against SMU, it can definitely struggle against California.

When it comes to Torrey specifically, there are other concerns. North Texas has a deep stable of running backs that got deeper last weekend with the breakout game from Tre Siggers, who rushed for 164 yards and a touchdown against SMU on 18 carries. Even if Siggers doesn't fully overtake Torrey for the starting role, he'll likely continue to command a share of the rushing offense that's enough to sting the Torrey owners. 

I'd also be wary of starting Frank Harris against Army.

MAC

START

LeVante Bellamy, RB, Western Michigan (-10) vs. Georgia State

If you're sensing a theme here, I'm pushing back against early season panic. You didn't draft Bellamy expecting him to rip up the Michigan State defense in Week 2. You drafted him to shred the MAC and defenses like Georgia State's, which, as I mentioned above, is the worst in the nation. Bellamy has 33 carries through the first two weeks while no other Western Michigan runner has more than nine. Sure, you would have liked to see Bellamy do better than 2.9 YPC against Monmouth in the opener, but this is the spot where he starts paying off. Georgia State gave up 215 rushing yards and two touchdowns to Furman. On 5.2 YPC. Come on now.

SIT

Jerome Buckner, WR, Ohio (+5.0) at Marshall

Buckner leads the Bobcats in receiving, though that's not a particularly high benchmark to clear as he holds that distinction with just 108 receiving yards. Now, he's been efficient on top of that, averaging a team-best 9.8 YPT among receivers with at least five targets. He and the Bobcats will be on the road facing one of the lowest tempo teams in the nation in Marshall at 62.5 plays per game (62.5). Ohio is low-tempo in its own right at 58.5 plays per game. The offensive philosophies on both sides here and the low implied total makes me shy away from even the best receiver Ohio has to offer.

Mountain West

START

Juwan Washington, RB, San Diego State (-15.5) at New Mexico State

Not unlike LeVante Bellamy, Washington has had a shaky start to the season. Injury played a role in part of it as he was quoted as being around 90 percent before kickoff of the Aztecs' win over UCLA. It didn't stop Washington from handling 20 carries and six targets against the Bruins. I still have the same concerns regarding Washington that I did a week ago -- this offense is so one dimensional that it could burn his value in the long run. But when he gets to go against New Mexico State's 118th-ranked defense (S&P+), those concerns get put on the shelf. If Washington can handle a workload similar to what he had in the first two weeks, he could easily outproduce what he did in those two outings combined. 

SIT

Collin Hill, QB, Colorado State (+9.5) at Arkansas

I know, I know. Benching someone because they're playing Arkansas seems like a ridiculous idea. And in fairness, Arkansas has looked every bit of an SEC Basement Dweller, especially after falling to Mississippi over the weekend. The offense has been the issue behind Arkansas' woes, though. Not the defense. S&P+ has Arkansas as the No.20 defense and the 116th-rated offense. Basically, this sets up as a tougher matchup than one might expect for Hill, who has been rock-solid to start the season with 741 yards, seven touchdowns and a 9.4 YPA.  

PAC-12

START

Andre Baccellia, WR, Washington (-21) vs. Hawaii

Baccellia wasn't the only Washington player to get down by California in last week's bizarre loss that ended well past my bedtime. He was held to three catches for 27 yards on six targets just one week after a strong season opener against Eastern Washington.

Hawaii is expected to offer an amount of resistance closer to Eastern Washington than California, so it's a green light for Baccellia once again for Week 3. Baccellia leads the team in targets (15) and is in a spot to improve upon his 7.4 YPT against the Rainbow Warriors.

SIT

Jayden Daniels, QB, Arizona State (+14) at Michigan State

The true freshman has smashed expectations since arriving on campus, having beat out some talented quarterbacks for the starting job and leading the Sun Devils to a 2-0 record. Daniels has been great for fantasy purposes, too. He has completed 62.7 percent of the passes with an 11.5 YPA while adding four total touchdowns. 

This week is a completely different beast, though. He and the Sun Devils will be traveling to East Lansing to face a Michigan State team that ranks 12th in defensive S&P+ and has given up a grand total of ... negative six rushing yards in two games. And it's not all just sack yardage. So if Eno Benjamin struggles, which is entirely possible, it'll be on Daniels to lead the Arizona State offense. Daniels is no doubt the quarterback of the present and the future for this program, it's just going to be tough for him to produce starter-worthy numbers for fantasy Saturday in East Lansing.

SEC

START

Demetris Robertson, WR, Georgia (-33) vs. Arkansas State

It's a big spread, of course, but Georgia is likely to keep its first unit on the field for long enough for players like Jake Fromm and D'Andre Swift to do damage as it gets ready for the Week 4 matchup against Notre Dame. Robertson also stands to be out there long enough produce, and he's starting to establish himself as the team's go-to receiver. He leads all Georgia receivers in targets with seven and has turned that into six catches for 44 yards and two touchdowns. Freshman George Pickens looks like he'll be playing a major role in this offense, too, but Robertson seems to be the No.1 option heading into this matchup.

SIT

Asim Rose, RB, Kentucky (+8) vs. Florida

The Terry Wilson injury is significant for this Kentucky offense beyond just one game as the Wildcats are so thin at quarterback behind him. Rose is the starting running back who has seen a strong workload through the first two weeks and his utility as a pass catcher (seven catches on seven targets, 38 yards) has bolstered his value. However, the Wilson absence could very well crater this entire offense, not just the passing game. Florida will be able to load up the box and stop Rose, forcing Kentucky to go to the air more than it might want. This is a potentially ugly spot for both Rose and the Wildcats on Saturday.

SUN BELT

START

Omar Bayless, WR, Arkansas State (+33) at Georgia

I'm not calling an Andy Isabella 2.0 game here but I'm also not overthinking this and leaving Bayless on my bench. He has 22 targets through two games and has turned those looks into 16 grabs for 281 yards (12.7 YPT) and five touchdowns, making him the highest-scoring fantasy receiver in the land through two games. Arkansas State is going to have next to no reason to run the ball Saturday, so look for quarterback Logan Bonner to air it out upwards of 40 times, with Bayless commanding a large share of those targets.  Bayless' efficiency may take a dip this week but he's still the most explosive receiver in this offense and he'll have enough target volume to produce a quality stat line.

SIT

Tra Minter, RB, South Alabama (+19) vs. Memphis

Game script could get out of hand here with South Alabama settling in as heavy home under dogs, which would lead to the run game going by the wayside. Memphis has shown some backbone in stopping the run if South Alabama does try the Tigers there, though. Mississippi's Scottie Phillips mustered just 3.3 YPC over 19 attempts against this Memphis defense, and I'd be willing to bet that Mississippi's offensive line is just a bit better than South Alabama's. 

Minter may have shredded Jackson State, but he looked pedestrian against Nebraska in Week 1 with 37 yards on 10 carries. Look for an outing closer to what he did against the Cornhuskers than what he did against those Jackson State Tigers.