This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Tennessee vs. Alabama Best Bets
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Week 8, better known to the Alabama and Tennessee fans as the Third Saturday in October, brings us one of college football's oldest rivalries. The Crimson Tide hold a favorable lead in the rivalry with a record of 58-39-7. Alabama had won the previous 15 matchups until last year when Hendon Hooker and the Vols snuck out a 52-49 victory. Much has changed in the course of a year, however, as both teams have lost historic quarterbacks for their programs. Bryce Young finished his three-year career at Alabama as the school's second all-time passer behind AJ McCarron while also setting the single-season passing record with 4,872 yards. Hooker departs Tennessee after leading an offense that broke the single-season passing yard record with 4,239 yards, 3,135 of which Hooker accounted for before getting injured to end the season. Hooker also set records for passing efficiency and completion percentage, while the Vols set new records in total offense, total points and points per game. With all that history lost between the two quarterbacks, we now have two teams that are nearly unrecognizable from where they were last year. Jalen Milroe has taken over at quarterback for the Crimson Tide, and Joe Milton, who finished out the season for Tennessee last year, has taken complete control of the reigns this year.
Tennessee vs Alabama Betting Odds for Week 8
Spread: Tennessee +8.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Alabama -8.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Tennessee +275 (PointsBet); Alabama -325 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Over/Under: Over 47.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Under 48.5 (BetMGM)
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Tennessee vs Alabama Betting Picks for Week 8
These teams have completely changed how they play football from a year ago, so don't expect another 52-49 game, as defense is now leading the way. Taking a look at some of the numbers, Alabama and Tennessee rank 12th and 13th, respectively, in defensive expected points added (EPA) and 55th and 38th in offensive EPA (EPA metrics via CFB-Graphs). On offense, Tennessee will likely look to win with their running game as they rank 11th in EPA/Rush as opposed to just 65th in passing, and Alabama ranks ninth against the pass and 25th against the run. The Crimson Tide have a bit of a more balanced and unintimidating split, ranking 51st in EPA/Pass and 54th in EPA/Rush, but the passing attack has started to come alive in the past few weeks as Milroe has started to settle in.
Tennessee vs Alabama Expert Pick: Under 48.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook) and Tennessee +8.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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As seen from the EPA numbers, these two teams match up pretty evenly. Both defenses are the focal point, and both offenses have struggled at times. Slightly different from last season, both of these teams are doing an extremely good job at limiting big plays on defense and forcing teams to sustain long drives down the field. This play style matched with Tennessee's likely desire to run the ball sets up well for an under. I expect these teams to play a tight, low-scoring game as both offenses have struggled to sustain success, which leads me to take the points here as well but favor the under in a likely low-scoring affair.
Tennessee vs Alabama Predictions for Week 8
I think Alabama will win a tight, low-scoring game here; both teams are playing very well defensively right now. The difference maker here is Milroe and Milton; Milroe has been playing much better as of late. Over the past two games against Arkansas and Texas A&M, Milroe has completed 57.4 percent of his passes for 559 yards with five touchdowns and one interception. In the past two games against South Carolina and Texas A&M, Milton has completed 60 percent of his passes for 339 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. This game being in Tuscaloosa at Bryant-Denny Stadium doesn't do Tennessee any favors either, as they have struggled on the road recently, going 1-3 in the last four matchups, with their only win coming last year against Vanderbilt.
