Heineken Dutch Grand Prix
Location: Zandvoort, Netherlands
Course: Circuit Zandvoort
Course Length: 4.26km
Laps: 72
Dutch Grand Prix Race Preview
Formula 1 returns to action in this week's Heineken Dutch Grand Prix. Hometown hero Max Verstappen will be seeking his fourth straight home-race win, but he and Red Bull Racing have gone winless since the Spanish Grand Prix in June and are expecting a tougher time this year at Zanvoort than they've experienced in the past. McLaren and Mercedes have gotten the most out of their 2024 development efforts and are making the championship a four-team battle alongside Red Bull and Ferrari. Mercedes returns from the summer break with the most momentum of the bunch after capturing three of the last four race wins. McLaren, despite winning in Hungary, are seeking to eliminate some of the mistakes that have cost them. Those three teams are facing a tight contest at Zandvoort this week while Ferrari attempt to prevent falling further behind. All might be chasing Verstappen again this week, though. Since returning to the Formula 1 calendar in 2021, Verstappen has won all three races from pole. A fourth win for him this weekend would tie the series record for most consecutive home wins alongside Juan Manuel Fangio, Jim Clark, and Lewis Hamilton.
Key Stats at Zandvoort
- Races: 33
- Winners from pole: 15
- Winners from top-5 starters: 30
- Winners from top-10 starters: 33
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 0
- Fastest race: 204.228 kph
Previous 10 Zandvoort Winners
2023 - Max Verstappen
2022 - Max Verstappen
2021 - Max Verstappen
1985 - Niki Lauda
1984 - Alain Prost
1983 - Rene Arnoux
1982 - Didier Pironi
1981 - Alain Prost
1980 - Nelson Piquet
1979 - Alan Jones
Zandvoort Circuit is a compact and undulating road course situated on the Dutch coast. After modernization work, the track returned to the Formula 1 calendar in 2021 for the first time since 1985. The track features 14 turns, some with significant banking, and two DRS zones. However, the twisty track is challenging to make passes on, especially with the current generation's larger cars. The circuit's unique turns and shorter straights favor the defending car versus the challenger. However, the two best spots for overtaking are the braking areas into turns 1 and 11. Getting the best possible run through the banked turn 14 will set up the passing attempts drivers make into turn 1, and the DRS detection zone located just after turns 11 and 12 can play an important factor in those challenges. Drivers need a nimble car that can exit the track's tight turns at maximum velocity to protect their positions. Qualifying up front to lead into the first turn is the biggest advantage, but pit strategy can enable cars further behind to mount a challenge later in the race. The weekend's expected wet weather could also spice up the action as the track's unique turns become even more treacherous in less than ideal conditions.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS for the Dutch Grand Prix
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Max Verstappen - $13,600
Lando Norris - $13,000
Lewis Hamilton - $10,400
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Charles Leclerc - $9,000
Sergio Perez - $7,400
Fernando Alonso - $6,000
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Alex Albon - $5,000
Nico Hulkenberg - $4,800
Yuki Tsunoda - $4,000
DraftKings Constructor Values
Mercedes - $11,300
Red Bull Racing - $11,100
Ferrari - $9,500
Formula 1 DFS Picks for the Dutch Grand Prix
Team Captain - Lewis Hamilton - $15,600
Max Verstappen - $13,000
Carlos Sainz Jr. - $8,000
Alex Albon - $5,000
Nico Hulkenberg - $4,800
Constructor - RB Formula 1 Team - $3,200
Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton took a significant step forward prior to the summer break. The team's upgrades have put them into the championship fight and, with three wins from the last four races, they are the team with the most momentum. That good news makes Hamilton a top choice for this weekend's Dutch Grand Prix. With rain in the weekend forecast, Hamilton's chances of a top finish increase even more, too. He is one of the best drivers in wet conditions and he has not finished lower than sixth in the last three Zandvoort stops. However, Max Verstappen may still be the favorite at his home track. Red Bull Racing hasn't been invincible recently but Verstappen has been the best in Holland since the track's reappearance on the schedule. He won all three races from pole and is also one of the best in the wet. The hometown crowd is expected to be a boost to him again and Verstappen remains the driver to beat at Zandvoort. The resurgence of Mercedes and McLaren have come at the expense of Carlos Sainz Jr. and Ferrari. Sainz has one victory in 2024 and five total podium finishes but hasn't finished better than fifth in the last three races. At Zandvoort, his best result was his fifth-place finish last season. Ferrari and Sainz will be seeking the fixes they need to re-enter the championship discussion following the conclusion of the summer break.
A return to Zandvoort good be a good thing for Alex Albon and Williams. Albon finished eighth in last year's Dutch Grand Prix but only had one top-10 finish in the six races leading into the break. Williams is bringing upgrades to this race weekend, and Albon qualified fourth for last year's race. The combination of those new parts along with a top qualifying effort could boost Albon back inside the top 10 this week. Another driver anxious for this week's race is Nico Hulkenberg. Having been born near the Dutch border, Zandvoort is near to a home race for the German. He speaks Dutch and has plenty of experience at the track in his days leading up to Formula 1. He finished 12th in last year's race, which was his only series start at the track.
Lastly, RB Formula 1 Team sits outside of the four-team battle for the constructor's championship, but are in a hot battle to be the best of the rest. They exit the summer break just 39 points behind a struggling Aston Martin and seven points ahead of Haas. RB can sense their ability to break away to claim the fifth spot in the championship, which would be a big boost to the organization. The drivers have scored points in the last four races and should be expected to do the same again at Zandvoort with the upside of potentially putting both drivers inside the top 10.
Formula 1 Betting Picks for the Dutch Grand Prix
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Race Winner - Max Verstappen +165, Lewis Hamilton +850
Winning Constructor - Red Bull Racing +155, Mercedes +450
Winning Margin - Under Six Seconds -150, Between Six and 12 Seconds +275
Safety Car - Yes -200, No +150
While a fourth home win would come against the run for form for Verstappen, there has been no better driver at the track since its return to the schedule. With rain expected to affect the weekend's proceedings, Verstappen may even have an advantage. He tamed the tricky conditions at this track to win in the past, and the wet may level the playing field this time as well. Lewis Hamilton is also one of the top drivers in the wet, though. Mercedes brings the most momentum into the return to action, and that wet surface that could help Verstappen might also boost Hamilton's chances of another 2024 victory. The top choice may be Verstappen, but Hamilton could be a great hedge against a potential Verstappen upset. Similar reasons make Red Bull Racing and Mercedes the two best bets from the constructor's standpoint. Fans looking to Ferrari should wait to see if they can stop their slide in performance. They simply have not had the race pace necessary to challenge for recent wins, while McLaren must overcome their missed strategy calls as well as some of the internal drama amongst the drivers fighting for victories.
The last two Dutch Grands Prix have been won by less than five seconds. With the convergence of competition at the front of the field, Sunday's race should be expected to be a relatively close one again. Wet conditions are likely to throw some unexpected surprises, and a late caution isn't out of the question along with the closeness of the competition currently in play among the front runners. Wagerers will not get the best odds as a result. Similarly, a wet track and this unique course means safety car periods are likely. Even under the best conditions, Zandvoort doesn't boast a ton of runoff room and there are plenty of spots drivers can make mistakes that will bring a safety car into play. A close finish (margin of less than six seconds) along with a safety car appearance appear to be the most likely scenarios but odds for each reflect that.
