Heineken Dutch Grand Prix
Location: Zandvoort, Netherlands
Course: Circuit Zandvoort
Course Length: 4.26km
Laps: 72
Dutch Grand Prix Race Preview
F1 is ready to make its return from the summer break for the Dutch Grand Prix. After a month-long layoff, it can be a bit difficult to predict whether the momentum we saw the last time teams and drivers were on the track will carry over. After losing ground to his McLaren teammate, Lando Norris has won three of the last four races and has pulled within nine points of Oscar Piastri for the lead in the driver championship.
There is less driver for the constructor championship, with McLaren running away with the title. Ferrari and Mercedes should be in for an intriguing battle for second and third in the standings, while Sauber and Aston Martin have both gained momentum in recent races.
Key Stats at Zandvoort
- Races: 34
- Winners from pole: 16
- Winners from top-5 starters: 31
- Winners from top-10 starters: 34
Previous Zandvoort Winners
2024- Lando Norris
2023 - Max Verstappen
2022 - Max Verstappen
2021 - Max Verstappen
Zandvoort has become a mainstay on the F1 calendar after a long layoff, with this being the fifth consecutive year it will host a race. Max Verstappen has unsurprisingly been dominant at his home, though his run came to an end last season and he'll likely face an uphill battle once again in 2025.
The constant that we've seen from the race is that track position is king. All four of the race winners since F1 returned to Zandvoort won pole. The track is relatively narrow and has limited straights, making overtaking very difficult.
Pirelli has worked with the FIA to try to make the race a bit more interesting by sending softer compound tires, introducing the potential that a team will attempt a two-stop strategy – though still unlikely.
For those making lineups on DraftKings it is imperative to wait until after qualifying to lock in rosters. For those looking to put down a wager or two, the best value is likely to come before qualifying, so look for outlier performances in the practice sessions.
DraftKings Value Picks for the Dutch Grand Prix
(Based on standard $50K salary cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Oscar Piastri - $13,800
Lando Norris - $13,600
Max Verstappen - $10,600
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Charles Leclerc - $10,200
George Russell - $9,600
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Fernando Alonso - $6,400
Alex Albon - $6,000
Nico Hulkenberg -$5,800
DraftKings Tier 4 Values
Liam Lawson - $4,600
Gabriel Bortoleto – $3,800
Lance Stroll - $3,400
DraftKings Constructor Values
McLaren - $16,900
Ferrari - $10,000
Aston Martin- $3,300
Sauber - $3,000
Formula 1 DFS Picks for the Dutch Grand Prix
Captain – Max Verstappen - $15,900
Carlos Sainz Jr. - $5,400
Liam Lawson - $4,600
Gabriel Bortoleto - $3,800
Lance Stroll - $3,400
Constructor – McLaren - $16,900
As is pretty clear from the tiers, the pricing sets up a pretty straightforward stars and scrubs build because there is extreme pricing on both the high and low ends of the range. We'll start with the highest-priced pieces, which is the captain and constructor. Perhaps one McLaren driver will put forward a dominant effort in qualifying, in which case it may be more comfortable to choose between Norris and Piastri. By rostering McLaren, we're likely to capture the race winner and two podium finishers. They are priced aggressively, but it will almost certainly be worth it.
It's nearly impossible to stack McLaren with one of the drivers, so it's time to get creative after locking in the Constructor. The next best option is Verstappen, because he's the most likely driver to put together one outstanding lap to surprisingly take pole position. Leclerc would be a decent second choice and saves $600.
After landing on the high-end pieces of the lineup, it will be necessary to find savings. Luckily, there are a number of value options that are strong plays, and we'll lean heavily into recent form. Lawson and Bortoleto have both been on impressive runs. Lawson has three straight points finishes after recording only one across his first 10 races. After looking like the inferior option to Isack Hadjar early in the season, the duo has switched form. Bortoleto's turnaround has been even more extreme, but the improvement in the Kick Sauber is legitimate, and he has shown the ability to get the most out of it.
Stroll is everyone's favorite punchline, but he has been another driver who has taken advantage of an improved car. He's beaten Fernando Alonso or finished in the points in each of his last three races.
Formula 1 Betting Picks for the Dutch Grand Prix
Race Winner - Max Verstappen (+700)
Points Finish – Liam Lawson (+145), Lance Stroll (+200), Fernando Alonso (-165), Nico Hulkenberg/Gabriel Bortoleto (+225)
Fastest Qualifier – Max Verstappen (+390)
Given McLaren's dominance, there isn't much value to be had betting on either Piastri or Norris to win the race. There are two reasonable alternatives to consider in Verstappen and Leclerc. Verstappen, Norris and Leclerc each have four poles, yet they aren't priced remotely closely. McLaren deserves some edge, but the current odds are probably overstated.
There's also value to be had when looking at points finishers. As was discussed in the intro, it's difficult to determine if momentum will carry over from the Hungarian Grand Prix to this weekend. If it does, Lawson, Stroll and one of the Kick Sauber drivers are very undervalued and are worth jumping on now.
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