Mexico City Grand Prix
Location: Mexico City, Mexico
Course: Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez
Course Length: 4.30km
Laps: 71
Mexico City Grand Prix Race Preview
The Drivers Championship looked to be a two-man fight between McLaren teammates Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, but suddenly, Max Verstappen sits only 40 points off total of Piastri and 26 off that of Norris. One of the two McLaren drivers should still hang on, but their big pace advantage appears to be gone and perhaps the pressure has affected them in a way that it won't for Verstappen. This won't rival the 2021 championship push, but it's far more interesting than anyone could have expected even a few weeks ago.
The race for second through fourth in the constructors standings is also interesting, if not particularly compelling for most viewers. Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull are all separated by less than 10 points. The season may be winding down, but there's still plenty to be decided.
Key Stats at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez
- Races: 25
- Winners from pole: 11
- Winners from top-5 starters: 23
- Winners from top-10 starters: 23
Previous 10 Mexico Winners
2024- Carlos Sainz Jr.
2023- Max Verstappen
2022 - Max Verstappen
2021 - Max Verstappen
2019 - Lewis Hamilton
2018 - Max Verstappen
2017 - Max Verstappen
2016 - Lewis Hamilton
2015 - Nico Rosberg
1992 - Nigel Mansell
This looks to be a great place for Verstappen to continue his push for the championship, as he's been dominant at the track. Carlos Sainz Jr. won from pole last year, but this isn't a track that demands a full weekend of dominance. Verstappen has won from a starting position as poor as third in recent years.
The other factor that makes the Mexican Grand Prix stand out from the rest is the altitude. The Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez sits 7,340 feet above sea level, the highest on the F1 calendar. Combined with the fact that the track isn't used regularly for other racing genres, tire wear is very high. McLaren's have been the easiest on their tires among the elite teams, so that should benefit Norris and Piastri, despite recent form.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS for the Mexico City Grand Prix
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Max Verstappen - $13,400
Lando Norris - $12,800
Oscar Piastri - $12,400
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
George Russell - $10,800
Charles Leclerc-$10,400
Lewis Hamilton - $8,600
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Fernando Alonso -$6,400
Alex Albon - $5,400
Nico Hulkenberg - $4,800
DraftKings Tier 4 Values
Oliver Bearman - $4,200
Yuki Tsunoda- $4,000
Pierre Gasly- $3,600
DraftKings Constructor Values
McLaren - $13,500
Ferrari- $10,5000
Red Bull - $10,000
Formula 1 DFS Picks for the Mexico City Grand Prix
Captain – Max Verstappen $20,100
Fernando Alonso- $6,400
Alex Albon- $5,400
Oliver Bearman - $4,200
Pierre Gasly - $3,600
Constructor- Red Bull Racing -$10,000
With the dominance of McLaren slipping, the pricing has also started to loosen. There's room to pair an elite driver with an elite team and still find one or two more midfield drivers with the chance to bring home points.
Building through a strong constructor makes sense this weekend. Mercedes is likely to struggle relative to other weekends due to tire wear, while Williams isn't as strong of a midfield team as is typically the case due to a grid penalty for Carlos Sainz. Perhaps Kick Sauber or Haas can pull off a qualifying surprise to potentially open up even more value, but paying up at constructor is the most logical decision for the time being.
Typically, it would make sense to wait for qualifying to see how the top of the field shakes out. Barring a big mistake from Verstappen, it's hard not to have the most confidence in him and his Red Bull given his recent form and history at the track. As long as he starts from the second row or better, he'd likely be my choice as Captain.
With two elite pieces locked in, it's time to find values. Pierre Gasly and Ollie Bearman fit the mold. Both are very likely to beat their teammates. Bearman has bettered Esteban Ocon in five consecutive grand prix and seven of the last eight. Gasly should have beaten Franco Colapinto in three of the last four races, but Colapinto defied team orders last weekend at COTA. Bearman is the stronger choice to lock in five points, but the savings from Gasly might be needed.
We can move back into the midfield after filling in with some value. Alex Albon should have a lot on his side this weekend. Sainz has a five-place grid penalty for a sloppy overtake attempt on Bearman last weekend, so Albon will have both a chance for a points finish and should beat his teammate. Alonso is in a similar position, typically beating his teammate and vying for points.
Formula 1 Betting Picks for the Mexico City Grand Prix
Race Winner – Lando Norris (+285), Oscar Piastri (+600)
Top-10 Finish – Oliver Bearman (+240), Alex Albon (-105)
Double Top 6 Finish – Ferrari (-165)
There are still a lot of unknowns for the race weekend, which offers some potential value but also increases risk. We see that particularly in the race winner odds. Verstappen would be my favorite driver if odds were even, but Verstappen currently sits as heavy favorite at -110. That makes the McLaren drivers interesting, particularly Piastri. He struggled at Mexico City last year, but he's mostly shown the ability to improve at tracks he has previously struggled at.
Similarly, Fernando Alonso is the priciest midfield driver to back for points finish, so we can shift to some of the other better midfield drivers. Albon likely won't have to fight with his teammate to finish in the points, who is generally a key competitor for the top 10. Bearman has finished inside the top 12 in eight of the last nine races, so he's consistently in the mix for points.
Ferrari is a good team to back for a pair of solid showings. They have two strong drivers and are likely to be the third fastest car this weekend (ahead of Mercedes). Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton should also both beat Yuki Tsunoda, giving them a solid opportunity to finish in the top six.
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