Surviving Week 5
Surviving Week 5

This article is part of our Survivor series.

Last week was a bloodbath if you didn't take the chalk. The Rams, Colts, Ravens and Packers took down roughly 42 percent of pools. I lost some entries myself by diversifying to the Rams, illustrating that while diversity protects against losing everything, it greatly increases the chances of losing something. 

Let's take a look at this week's slate. 

TeamOpponent%Taken*Vegas ML**Vegas OddsExpected Loss
EAGLESJets46.30%637.586.446.28
CHIEFSColts25.00%537.584.313.92
PatriotsREDSKINS17.40%82589.191.88
CHARGERSBroncos2.80%27573.330.75
BearsRaiders***2.30%21568.250.73
VikingsGIANTS2.00%23069.700.61
TEXANSFalcons1.30%22068.750.41
SAINTSBuccaneers0.50%17563.640.18
RavensSTEELERS0.50%17062.960.19
BENGALSCardinals0.40%17563.640.15

Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com 
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game in London

The Patriots – as usual – are the clear pick, far less owned than the top two choices, and with the best chance to win. But the choice between the Eagles and Chiefs is a close one. 

An Eagles win/Chiefs loss happens (per Vegas) 86.5*16.5 percent of the time = 14.27%. A Chiefs win/Eagles loss is 11.4. The ratio of 14.27 to 11.4 is 1.25

In our hypothetical 100-person, $10 pool, an Eagles win/Chiefs

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chris Liss
Chris Liss is RotoWire's Managing Editor and Host of RotoWIre Fantasy Sports Today on Sirius XM radio.
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