This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week was a bloodbath if you didn't take the chalk. The Rams, Colts, Ravens and Packers took down roughly 42 percent of pools. I lost some entries myself by diversifying to the Rams, illustrating that while diversity protects against losing everything, it greatly increases the chances of losing something.
Let's take a look at this week's slate.
|Team||Opponent||%Taken*||Vegas ML**||Vegas Odds||Expected Loss|
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game in London
The Patriots – as usual – are the clear pick, far less owned than the top two choices, and with the best chance to win. But the choice between the Eagles and Chiefs is a close one.
An Eagles win/Chiefs loss happens (per Vegas) 86.5*16.5 percent of the time = 14.27%. A Chiefs win/Eagles loss is 11.4. The ratio of 14.27 to 11.4 is 1.25
In our hypothetical 100-person, $10 pool, an Eagles win/Chiefs