This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Last week wasn't great – 7-8 ATS, lost my third-straight best bet (Colts) and went 2-3 in the Supercontest.
This week, I especially like the Bears, Broncos, Dolphins and Patriots.
Cowboys -4.5 at Saints
Both teams have played poorly of late, but the Saints could get Taysom Hill back, and that's probably enough given the decent-sized line at home. Take the points.
Cowboys 24 - 23
Vikings -7 at Lions
Dalvin Cook is an important player for the Vikings, but so is D'Andre Swift for the Lions. Jared Goff looked healthy on Thanksgiving though, the Lions will have had 10 days off and the Vikings pass defense is beatable. Take the points.
Vikings 24 - 20
Cardinals -7.5 at Bears
We don't yet know whether Kyler Murray will play, and this is a big number in any event to lay on the road in what could be a bad weather environment. Take the points.
Cardinals 23 - 20
Buccaneers -11 at Falcons
The Bucs could destroy the Falcons, but 11 is a massive line in a divisional road game. Take the Falcons.
Buccaneers 27 - 17
Colts -9 at Texans
I had the Texans based on my numbers, but the Colts are a bully team that should be able to pull away late behind their running game. Lay the wood.
Colts 31 - 20
Eagles -6.5 at Jets
Jalen Hurts' status is in question, but Gardner Minshew is a capable backup, and the Eagles should handle