NFL Picks: NFL Week 6 Betting Odds and Key Line Movement

NFL Picks: NFL Week 6 Betting Odds and Key Line Movement

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Week 6 Betting Odds and Key Line Movement

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention. 

Now that we have three weeks in the books, we have more cluster injuries, but more of a sense of where teams stand.  

The key here is figuring out what games will go under and what team totals will go under. 

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Latest Odds For This Week in The NFL

For more, take a look at NFL Week 6 odds.

Washington Commanders (-1.0) @ Chicago Bears O/U 38.5

San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) @ Atlanta Falcons O/U 43.5

New England Patriots @ Cleveland Browns (-3.0) O/U 42.5

New York Jets @ Green Bay Packers (-7.5) O/U 46.5

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) O/U 42.0

Minnesota Vikings (-3.0) @ Miami Dolphins O/U 45.5

Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) @ New Orleans Saints O/U 44.0

Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) @ New York Giants O/U 44.0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers O/U 44.0

Carolina Panthers @ Los Angeles Rams (-11.0) O/U 41.0

Arizona Cardinals (-3.0) @ Seattle Seahawks O/U 52.0

Buffalo Bills (-2.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs O/U 53.5

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) O/U 42.5

Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) O/U 46.0     

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NFL Week 6 Line Movement: Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

No team has seen their power rating decline more than the Indianapolis Colts. This line opened Colts -7.0, dropped to -2.5 last week, and is now even more in the -1.0-2.0 range. I can see this line eventually going to EVEN by kickoff. The total has also dropped from 44.0 to 42.0.  Both teams laid eggs in their last games with the Jaguars losing to the Texans at home and the Colts winning the worst game in a long time against the Broncos 12-9 on Thursday. 

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NFL Week 6 Line Movement: Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams

This game opened Rams -9.0 and dropped to -7.5 in early July, but then went back up to -9.5 and has kept climbing to -11.0. I can see this line getting out of hand and potentially getting as high as -13.5. The total opened at 42.0 and dropped to 41.0. Much like the side, I can see this total dropping a little further based on the Panthers' issues.

The Panthers fired their coach Matt Rhule on Monday morning and Baker Mayfield is in a walking boot, so P.J. Walker will get the start.  As bad as the Rams have looked, there is very little faith in the Panthers from the betting public right now.

NFL Week 6 Line Movement: Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles have seen their power rating improve the most since the season started as they are 5-0 0 and face the Dallas Cowboys this week. The Cowboys have played incredible ball as well with backup quarterback Cooper Rush and a shutdown defense. 

The game opened a pick 'em and has moved to -5.5, but then -5.0, -4.5, and then back to -5.0. I do not think we will see much line movement on the side here, but the total has fallen from 45.5 all the way to 42.0. 

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NFL Week 6 Line Movement: Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins come into Week 6 on quarterback #3 with rookie Skylar Thompson which is the main reason this line has moved from Miami -3 to Miami +3. It is hard to see a game line move more than 6 points so if Thompson starts it should remain there. If Teddy Bridgewater is cleared to play and gets the start, we should see some buyback on the Dolphins but I'm not sure it really moves a ton. 

The Dolphins gave up 40 points to the New York Jets Sunday which is also a key factor in the line movement.  

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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