NFL Win Totals 2025: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The betting market is projecting regression for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after a surprising playoff run in 2024. But if you're looking for value on NFL win totals 2025, Tampa Bay is being underestimated.
At Caesars Sportsbook, you can still find the Buccaneers over 9.5 wins at -110. That's a number worth attacking, even if it means going against the public.
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Why Tampa Bay's Offense Can Still Thrive
Much of the market's hesitation stems from the departure of offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who took over as head coach of the Jaguars. While Coen played a role in last season's success, the notion that he was the only reason for the offense's rise is misguided.
Baker Mayfield has now posted four strong seasons as a starting quarterback. His struggles in earlier seasons were mostly tied to extreme shoulder injuries and poor coaching. But when healthy and well-supported, Mayfield has consistently delivered as a high-level passer.
That support structure remains intact. Tampa Bay's offensive line gives Mayfield both time to throw and opens up running lanes. Even if Chris Godwin's (ankle) status remains uncertain early in the year, Mike Evans continues to play at a high level, and the Buccaneers still have quality depth at receiver, including the promising rookie Emeka Egbuka. 2024 rookie sensation Bucky Irving may not fully replicate his first-year performance, but he's clearly above average in both rushing and receiving.
You can explore more about individual player usage and roles with our up-to-date NFL depth charts.
Defensive Concerns Are Overblown
Is Tampa Bay's defense elite? No. But it doesn't need to be.
The pass rush is middle of the pack, and the cornerback group is slightly below average. Still, the defense remains competent enough to hold serve while the offense puts pressure on opponents.
In a league where scoring rules the day, having one of the better offenses in the NFL gives Tampa Bay consistent paths to victory, even in games where the defense bends or breaks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Schedule is Favorable
The schedule gives further reason to bet the over on Tampa Bay's NFL win projections.
The Buccaneers play in the NFC South, which remains one of the weakest divisions in football. Their six divisional games are very winnable. Outside of that, Tampa Bay only faces four true contenders, three of which are road games. Even if they go 0-4 in those matchups, they'd just need to go 10-3 against a very manageable group of remaining games.
Importantly, many of their softer opponents will come to Tampa, giving the Bucs an edge in swing games. That favorable balance between tough road matchups and easier home tilts enhances their ability to reach double-digit wins.
Stay on top of evolving schedule dynamics and team expectations using our latest NFL projections and betting tools.
Bottom Line: Take the Over
Tampa Bay is a proven veteran team with a top-tier offense, solid coaching, and a favorable schedule. Even with a few defensive flaws, they have the personnel to win games in multiple ways, especially if Mayfield continues playing with confidence.
They're unlikely to shatter expectations, but 10 or 11 wins is a realistic outcome. That makes the NFL over and under wins market for Tampa Bay one of the best spots for value.
For more betting insights, player outlooks, and positional analysis, visit our fantasy football articles.
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