Each week of the season I will look at matchups, usage, pace of play and the injury report to highlight my favorite "higher" and "lower" picks on Chalkboard.
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Higher
- Trevor Lawrence
vs. SEA - higher than 229.5 passing yards - Brian Thomas vs. SEA - higher than 4.5 receptions and 57.5 receiving yards
The Seattle defense has been a pass funnel through five weeks. It ranks 22nd in EPA per dropback, and 3rd in EPA per rush. It is also decimated by injuries and likely to be missing multiple starters. We just saw QB Baker Mayfield and the shorthanded Bucs cook the Seahawks for 379 passing yards. Lawrence looked good against the Chiefs on Monday night, and I trust him enough here. Brian Thomas is coming off his best game of the season, and he should see a bump in target share with Brenton Strange hitting the Reserve/Injured list, while Dyami Brown is also banged up.
- Justin Herbert
at MIA - higher than 1.5 passing touchdowns - Ladd McConkey at MIA - higher than 4.5 catches and 55.5 receiving yards
The Chargers have now lost their top two RBs after Omarion Hampton went down last week. They've already been passing at one of the highest rates in the league, and won't have a choice but to throw more going forward. Miami has one of the weaker secondaries, and Justin Herbert is more than capable of taking advantage. McConkey is coming off five catches and his first touchdown of the season. Expect him to be heavily involved against Sunday.
- Tetairoa McMillan
vs. DAL - higher than 4.5 receptions
I'm going to keep targeting the Cowboys defense until they prove me wrong. We've hit on Odunze, Doubs and Wilson in consecutive weeks against the Dallas secondary. McMillan looks like the real deal, one of few bright spots for the Panthers thus far. With at least five catches in three of five games, he's Bryce Young's only legitimate weapon in the passing-game.
- Ashton Jeanty
vs. TEN - higher than 75.5 rushing yards and 0.5 touchdowns
Despite their struggles, the Raiders are sizeable home favorites because the Titans are even worse. Two weeks ago we saw Jeanty break out against the Bears with 138 yards on 21 attempts. He should be in line for that type of volume on Sunday, especially if Brock Bowers is ruled out again. He's been more involved in the passing game recently too, making higher than 94.5 rush + rec yards also appealing.
- Josh Jacobs
vs. CIN - higher than 79.5 rushing yards - Matthew Golden vs. CIN - higher than 45.5 receiving yards
The Packers are fresh off a bye and 14-point favorites against the Bengals, who will be starting Joe Flacco after acquiring him by trade on Monday. Cincinnati's defense has allowed at least 118 rushing yards in four consecutive games. Jacobs should see 20+ carries on Sunday, and I think it leads to a 100-yard day. Golden has 52 and 58 receiving yards in his last two games on nine catches as Green Bay continues to increase his workload. The rookie has the type of speed and explosiveness to score from anywhere on the field. Expect Jordan Love to keep targeting him on deep balls.
Lower
- Joe Flacco
at GB - lower than 211.5 passing yards - Chase Brown at GB - lower than 70.5 rush + rec yards or 43.5 rushing yards
- Ja'Marr Chase at GB - lower than 6.5 receptions
Cincinnati really has its work cut out. The offensive line is atrocious, and Joe Flacco has been there less than week. It isn't like he was any good in Cleveland, either. I'm expecting Micah Parsons and company to dominate. You could correlate some of these with Jacobs and/or Golden above. Chase Brown hasn't seen more than 10 carries since Week 2, when he rushed for a season-high 47 yards. Ja'Marr Chase has been held under 6.5 receptions in four of five games. Flacco topped 200 passing yards in one of four games as a Brown. Green Bay's defense will raring to go after a disappointing performance last time out against Dallas in Week 4.
