Each week of the season I will look at matchups, usage, pace of play and the injury report to highlight my favorite "higher" and "lower" picks on Chalkboard.
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Higher
Justin Fields 
vs. DAL - higher than 187.5 passing yards
Garrett Wilson vs. DAL - higher than 60.5 receiving yards
Mason Taylor vs. DAL - higher than 35.5 receiving yards
I see no reason not to target the Cowboys defense for a third consecutive week. Ever since Giants QB Russell Wilson threw for 450 yards against them in Week 2, the Dallas D hasn't been able to stop anyone.
I realize that Justin Fields isn't the same type of QB as Caleb Williams and Jordan Love, but the number set at 187.5 passing yards is a considerably lower bar. He threw for 226 last week against Miami, and 211 in Week 1 against Pittsburgh. The Jets will also be without RB Braelon Allen, and might not be able rely on the running game like before. They also might not have a choice but to throw if the Cowboys keep putting up points like they have been. Either way, Fields has proven himself capable.
Jets WR Garrett Wilson has at least 82 receiving yards in three of four games this season. He's one of the most talented WRs in the league and the Jets only legitimate weapon at the position. TE Mason Taylor is coming off the best game of his young career after catching five of seven targets for 65 yards against the Dolphins. He's drawn 6+ targets in back-to-back games and Fields has a history of favoring his TEs.
Cam Skattebo 
at NO - higher than 58.5 rushing yards
Giants RB Tyrone Tracy remains out. Skattebo had 25 rushing attempts last week against the Chargers. Now he gets a softer matchup against the Saints. So long as Tracy is out, the ball will be in Skattebo's hands often as the Giants ease Jaxson Dart into the starting QB role. The Saints play fast and their games usually produce outsized play volume. I like the rookie to score a TD in this spot, too, and the 1.67x multiple on that is enticing.
Jaylen Waddle 
at CAR - higher than 60.5 receiving yards
Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill is done for the year, so that sets the stage for Jaylen Waddle to resume his role as Miami's No. 1 WR. I expect a significant bump in target share, and we've seen him handle that volume successfully in the past. The last time Waddle played a full game without Hill, he caught eight passes for 142 yards and a TD. Sunday's matchup against the lowly Panthers is a prime opportunity, one where he should have chances to find the end zone as well.
Tetairoa McMillan 
vs. MIA - higher than 56.5 receiving yards
McMillan has led the Panthers in receiving yards all four games. QB Bryce Young has been inconsistent, but gets one of the best possible matchups on Sunday against Miami's subpar secondary. McMillan also correlates nicely with Waddle if you're planning to pair some picks together.
Quinshon Judkins 
vs. MIN - higher than 71.5 rushing yards
Judkins ran 21 times for 82 yards against a stout Detroit Lions defense last week on the road. The week before that, he took 18 carries for 91 yards against Micah Parsons and the Packers. We just saw Pittsburgh Steelers RB Kenneth Gainwell rush for 99 yards against this Minnesota Vikings defense last week. Judkins looks like the real deal and he's already seeing big volume. He's scored TDs in back-to-back weeks too.
Marvin Harrison 
at TEN - higher than 50.5 receiving yards
Trey McBride at TEN - higher than 0.5 TDs at 2.36x
Harrison had another big drop in the first half of Monday night's loss to the Seattle Seahawks, but he responded well with six catches on 10 targets for 66 yards and a score. The Cardinals have a soft matchup against the Tennessee Titans, and they'll be missing their top two RBs in James Conner and Trey Benson. I'm expecting them to rely more on the passing game in this spot and that favors Harrison and Trey McBride, who has an anytime TD multiple of 2.36x that looks appealing. He should see multiple red-zone/end-zone targets Sunday.
