Survivor pools thinned a little last week with the Chargers losing to the Jaxson Dart Giants and, to a lesser extent, the Packers tying the Cowboys, which counts as a loss in most pools.
The Chargers were our third-favorite pick last week. Perhaps we overlooked the spark Dart would give the Giants. Hopefully, unlike user rico4566, readers went with the Bills or Lions — sorry, Rico.
In my pool, 53 (17.3 percent) were eliminated, 21 on the Chargers. Of the original 451 entrants, 306 remain (67.8 percent).
On to Week 5.
Those unfamiliar with our strategy should start by reading here and here, or for a more concise explanation, read Week 1's article.
Ownership percentages below come from Yahoo. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CARDINALS | Titans | 27.6% | 375 | 78.9% | 5.81 |
| Lions | BENGALS | 24.9% | 537.5 | 84.3% | 3.90 |
| COLTS | Raiders | 22.3% | 270 | 73.0% | 6.02 |
| RAMS | 49ers | 4.2% | 270 | 73.0% | 1.13 |
| Chiefs | JAGUARS | 4.2% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 1.56 |
| BILLS | Patriots | 3.5% | 375 | 78.9% | 0.74 |
| Vikings | Browns* | 2.5% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.87 |
| Cowboys | JETS | 2.2% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.94 |
| Giants | SAINTS | 2.1% | 122.5 | 55.1% | 0.93 |
| EAGLES | Broncos | 1.9% | 190 | 65.5% | 0.65 |
| RAVENS | Texans | 1.8% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.81 |
| CHARGERS | Commanders | 1.3% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 0.53 |
| Dolphins | PANTHERS | 0.6% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.30 |
| SEAHAWKS | Buccaneers | 0.1% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 0.04 |
Survivor pools thinned a little last week with the Chargers losing to the Jaxson Dart Giants and, to a lesser extent, the Packers tying the Cowboys, which counts as a loss in most pools.
The Chargers were our third-favorite pick last week. Perhaps we overlooked the spark Dart would give the Giants. Hopefully, unlike user rico4566, readers went with the Bills or Lions — sorry, Rico.
In my pool, 53 (17.3 percent) were eliminated, 21 on the Chargers. Of the original 451 entrants, 306 remain (67.8 percent).
On to Week 5.
Those unfamiliar with our strategy should start by reading here and here, or for a more concise explanation, read Week 1's article.
Ownership percentages below come from Yahoo. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CARDINALS | Titans | 27.6% | 375 | 78.9% | 5.81 |
| Lions | BENGALS | 24.9% | 537.5 | 84.3% | 3.90 |
| COLTS | Raiders | 22.3% | 270 | 73.0% | 6.02 |
| RAMS | 49ers | 4.2% | 270 | 73.0% | 1.13 |
| Chiefs | JAGUARS | 4.2% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 1.56 |
| BILLS | Patriots | 3.5% | 375 | 78.9% | 0.74 |
| Vikings | Browns* | 2.5% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.87 |
| Cowboys | JETS | 2.2% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.94 |
| Giants | SAINTS | 2.1% | 122.5 | 55.1% | 0.93 |
| EAGLES | Broncos | 1.9% | 190 | 65.5% | 0.65 |
| RAVENS | Texans | 1.8% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.81 |
| CHARGERS | Commanders | 1.3% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 0.53 |
| Dolphins | PANTHERS | 0.6% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.30 |
| SEAHAWKS | Buccaneers | 0.1% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 0.04 |
Home teams in CAPS
*Vikings vs. Browns at London
This week has three teams nearly equal in popularity — the Cardinals (27.6 percent), Lions (24.9) and Colts (22.3). Obviously, a pot-odds pick does not exist.
If you haven't used the Lions, that's an easy pick against the Bengals, as are the Bills against the Patriots. After that, you have choices. Vegas likes the Cardinals, Colts and Rams better than the Eagles, though that seems a bit dismissive of the Eagles.
We've used the Lions, Bills and Eagles, which leaves the Cardinals, Colts or Rams. Arizona seems like the best option among that bunch, if for no other reason than its opponent, the Titans, are probably the worst team in the league — they've scored one first-half touchdown this season.
Picks below are in order of preference.
MY PICKS
Detroit Lions
The Lions are playing at high level and the Bengals are playing at perhaps the lowest level in the league. The Jake Browning-led Bengals have scored one TD the last two weeks, and that came in garbage time of a blowout. On a short week after playing Monday, the Bengals aren't likely to find answers in time for Detroit. The only reason the Lions aren't more popular this week is they've already been used by many Survivors.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills are the AFC's best team by a mile and at home Sunday night face a Patriots team that's beaten only the Dolphins and Panthers. Like the Lions, the Bills have been used by many Survivors, and thus are not too popular this week. It might not be the best spot to use them anyway, considering things have been known to go goofy in division games and there are plenty of Survivor options. But that's about the only hesitation.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals aren't great, but the Titans are just that bad. It's not often a team coming off consecutive losses is a touchdown favorite (7.5, to be exact). The Titans just got shut out by a struggling Houston team. That probably won't happen this week, but Tennessee doesn't have any playmakers on offense, aside from Tony Pollard, if we're being generous.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles hung on at Tampa Bay last week in 100-degree heat and now return home to play a Broncos team that has beaten only Tennessee and the Joe Burrow-less Bengals. Denver dropped close ones to the Colts and Chargers, which about sums up the team — competitive with good teams but not quite good enough to win. The Eagles are the best team they'll face all season, and it's in Philly.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts played the Rams even last week, aside from allowing a long TD pass on broken coverage for the deciding score. That's probably not sitting well this week. Maybe the Colts aren't as good as their 3-1 record suggests — with wins against the Dolphins, Broncos, Titans — but they're fourth in points per game and the only team better in EPA metrics is the Bills. They get another slouching opponent this week in the Raiders at Indy. The Colts should take care of business.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are solid if unspectacular and face a beat-up 49ers team Thursday. Los Angeles would be 4-0 if not for a blocked field goal, while the 3-1 Niners barely scraped by in each of their wins (Seahawks, Saints, Cardinals). Christian McCaffrey might have to be a one-man team, which is certainly possible, but the Rams are deeper on both sides of the ball and San Francisco's wideout corps is getting perilously thin.
NOTABLE OMISSION
Kansas City Chiefs
The noteworthiness of this is debatable, but the Chiefs are the fifth-most popular team this week, according to Yahoo. Granted, it's only 4 percent, but it's a head-scratching pick when there are so many good options (even if you've used the Lions, Bills and Eagles). Do we really think the Chiefs are a safe pick at Jacksonville on Monday night?
