Payne's Perspective: Super Bowl Prop Bets

The last five years or so I've done a prop/special bets column for the Super Bowl. This (generally speaking) is done for entertainment purposes only. Feel free in the comments section to add any others you've found. These views are mine only and in no way shape or form should you hop on a flight to Vegas and bet your week's pay, this month's mortgage or you children's college tuition fund.

Thanks to the Westgate Las Vegas for the following odds:

First, I'll get this out of the way. Give me the Broncos +5.5. I don't have a strong feeling about this unlike the last two (I liked Seattle in each, FWIW). My logic here is this: it appears on the surface that Vegas will stand to lose money should the Panthers win and cover. That would have happened two weeks ago had the Patriots won and covered. I expect late (sharp) money to show up on the Broncos (as of Wednesday it was rumored it started to) but I don't think it'll be enough to cover the total amount wagered on the Panthers. Another thought in my head being a Bills fan: the Bills thumped the Raiders 51-3 in the AFC championship in 1991 only to lose to the Giants in Super Bowl XXV as seven-point favorites. Note: that was the Whitney Houston National Anthem game, the greatest in Super Bowl history.

Onto the prop/special bets:

Panthers -7.5 (+140)

I know, I know. I just wrote how I Iike the Broncos to cover with the 5.5 points. However, if you are going to wage on the Panthers, perhaps adjusting the line is the right move. Some places have the Panthers listed at six and I think it's worth it to move the spread 1.5 or two points to get +140 instead of -110. Another wager I'd consider as a Panthers backer (or a Broncos hedger) is the Panthers -21.5 for (+600). This would suggest a blowout, a scenario I think only has the real possibility to happen in Carolina's favor.

Josh Norman (28:1) or Aqib Talib (33:1) named MVP

Cam Newton (-130) is the big favorite, which is not a surprise considering he's the quarterback of the favored team. However, should the game be swung on a pick-six, chances are it's Talib or Norman who have a hand in it. Including the playoffs, Kurt Coleman (150:1) has nine interceptions, which is five more than Norman, but it's the latter who has two pick-sixes to Coleman's one this season. Talib has two pick-sixes both this season and last, showing his penchant for the big play.

Peyton Manning will throw an interception, -220

If you're going to bet on the Panthers ATS or the money line it might be a wise idea to parlay it with this prop. Manning threw interceptions in nine of his 10 regular-season games and many of those were of the multi-interception kind. However, including the postseason, he's gone three straight games without a pick, though there have been several close calls. The Panthers were the top team in the league in interceptions this season with 24 and have another six in the postseason against "good" playoff teams. I'll be very surprised if Manning gets through this game without a pick.

Cam Newton's longest pass over 37.5 yards, -110

Granted, the Broncos have one of the best defenses in the league. Cam and the Panthers come into the game hitting the over for this wager in three consecutive games. The game before that against Atlanta was an under, before that was an under (but Olsen had a 37-yard grab) and then two more overs. Meanwhile, the Broncos come into the game giving up at least a 38-yard reception in three straight. There are enough numbers there for me to buy into the over.

Mike Carey will NOT be wrong on a challenge, -190

Typically, I hate taking odds like this, but according to this piece, Mike Carey was 90 percent correct this season on replay challenge questions. According to the wager, there has to be a call that is challenged for any action and then Carey has to make a definitive ruling about it. The downside is if there are somehow multiple challenges. In the unlikely event there are four-plus let's say, Carey only has to get one wrong to lose. Still, the odds on that are a long shot.

Lady Gaga under 2:20 to sing the National Anthem, -140

The only video evidence I could find of Gaga signing the National Anthem was at a 2013 Gay Pride rally in New York City. Looking at this video, it appears she starts to sign the anthem at :42 seconds and finishes at 2:57 for a time of 2:15. While she could perform a totally different version, it would make sense that she could also be nervous and speed up the rate of her signing.

Kevin Durant will have more points (-6.5) than Peyton Manning has completions, -110

This is a nice prop to take as it'll give you action Saturday in a blockbuster matchup as the Thunder travel west to take on the Warriors. The over/under should be easily in the 220s and could easily be over 230. It's pretty safe to say Durant (who averages 27.2 points per game) should easily eclipse 30 and has the upside for 50-plus in a game like this. Manning has completed 17 and 21 passes during the playoffs and doesn't have the upside of Durant in the matchup. Total completions for Manning is set at 21.5, so using my Euclid-like math skills Durant only needs to surpass roughly 28 points to win. This might be the prop bet I like the most.

DeMarcus Cousins will have more points-plus-rebounds (-6.5) than Owen Daniels has receiving yards, -110

The only hesitation is that Cousins is coming off an ankle injury, but he's played the last week and should be fine. He has a good matchup against the Celtics as they don't defend well in the paint. Cousins averages 27.0 points and 11.7 rebounds this season for a nice total of 38.7 (more than 44 in January, FYI). Subtracting 6.5 from that total gives us roughly 32 as the magic number of receiving yards Daniels would need. How many of Peyton's starts has Daniels done that? Three in 10 (and I'm throwing out the KC home debacle for Daniels or it would be three in 11), showing there's about a 30 percent chance of Daniels winning using those numbers. This seems to be a bet using recency bias (Daniels big NFC championship game, Boogie being hurt) to get the public on Daniels. I like the opposite. Just make sure Boogie is healthy. I also like Owen Daniels under 29.5 receiving yards.

Buffalo Wild Wings will sell under 12 million chicken wings on Super Bowl Sunday, -110

Not that she's a huge chicken wing fan, but my wife hates Buffalo Wild Wings with a passion. She won't articulate why so maybe it was the scene of a bad date. On one hand, we live in a gluttonous, fat country. On the other, there are plenty of other, and likely better, options for wings. Last year they estimated they sold 11 million wings and anticipate only a 3 percent increase this year. Again using the Euclid-like math skills, that would equal 11.33 million and be significantly short.

There will be an earthquake during the game, +1000

A quick glance at this one seems like it's a ridiculous bet, but some research brings up some interesting data. You can track earthquakes in San Francisco here or follow @earthquakesSF on Twitter for daily earthquake info. As I type this, there was just an earthquake an hour ago in Cupertino, Calif., and there have been 14 (!) in the last week. While it's still unlikely, I like taking the 10:1 odds, though it's a little foggy on what will constitute a winning bet.

Enjoy the game and list below anything that caught your eye or any agreements/disagreements.