Fantasy managers are always wondering what's in their rivals' heads. Now they can have a pretty good idea.
Subscribers and account holders on RotoWire have conducted more than 16,500 mock drafts plus 4,000 actual drafts using the draft assistant. While the mock draft and actual draft show many similarities (as expected), there were a few notable differences that raised some questions.
- Will someone overreach in your draft on Christian McCaffrey?
- Is Raiders TE Brock Bowers a top-20 pick in your fantasy draft?
- Will Washington QB Jayden Daniels slip behind other quarterbacks?
Let's dig a little deeper into the data and see what we can glean from it. The mock draft simulator is one of many tools in your fantasy football draft kit at RotoWire. Subscribe today to unlock it all.
Round 1
Let's first compare the first round. Note that this is a combination of standard, PPR and half PPR.
| Mock Draft | Actual Draft | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ja'Marr Chase | WR | CIN | Ja'Marr Chase | WR | CIN |
| 2 | Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | Saquon Barkley | RB | PHI |
| 3 | Saquon Barkley | RB | PHI | Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL |
| 4 | Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET |
| 5 | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN |
| 6 | CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL |
| 7 | Derrick Henry | RB | BAL | Derrick Henry | RB | BAL |
| 8 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | Ashton Jeanty | RB | LV |
| 9 | Puka Nacua | WR | LA | Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF |
| 10 | Malik Nabers | WR | NYG | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET |
| 11 | Ashton Jeanty | RB | LV | Malik Nabers | WR | NYG |
| 12 | Nico Collins | WR | HOU | Josh Jacobs | RB | GB |
Takeaways:
- The fantasy mock draft pool placed McCaffrey at the top of the second round, but actual drafters had him at No. 9. Are there better options in that slot?
- Will there be a heavier run on running backs in the first round? The mock drafts had five of the first 11 picks come from the backfield while seven running backs went in the first round in the actual drafts. Should you adjust your fantasy football cheat sheet?
- Is rookie Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty a legit top-8 pick in fantasy football? RotoWire users think so, as do a growing number of experts.
At the top of the draft, there was obviously variance by league type. Here are the top 5 picks (mock and actual) for PPR, half-PPR and standard.
| PPR | Non-PPR | Standard | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mock | Actual | Mock | Actual | Mock | Actual | |||
| 1 | Chase | Chase | 1 | Chase | Chase | 1 | Robinson | Barkley |
| 2 | Barkley | Robinson | 2 | Barkley | Barkley | 2 | Chase | Chase |
| 3 | Robinson | Barkley | 3 | Robinson | Robinson | 3 | Henry | Robinson |
| 4 | Jefferson | Gibbs | 4 | Jefferson | Gibbs | 4 | Barkley | Gibbs |
| 5 | Gibbs | Jefferson | 5 | Gibbs | Lamb | 5 | Jeanty | Henry |
Round 2
| Mock Draft | Actual Draft | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (13) | Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | Puka Nacua | WR | LA |
| 2 (14) | Brian Thomas | WR | JAC | Nico Collins | WR | HOU |
| 3 (15) | De'Von Achane | RB | MIA | Josh Allen | QB | BUF |
| 4 (16) | Drake London | WR | ATL | De'Von Achane | RB | MIA |
| 5 (17) | Brock Bowers | TE | LV | Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND |
| 6 (18) | A.J. Brown | WR | PHI | Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL |
| 7 (19) | Josh Jacobs | RB | GB | Drake London | WR | ATL |
| 8 (20) | Josh Allen | QB | BUF | A.J. Brown | WR | PHI |
| 9 (21) | Bucky Irving | RB | TB | Brian Thomas | WR | JAC |
| 10 (22) | Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | Tyreek Hill | WR | MIA |
| 11 (23) | Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | Kyren Williams | RB | LAR |
| 12 (24) | Ladd McConkey | WR | LAC | Brock Bowers | TE | LV |
Takeaways:
QUICK LINKS
- Mocks have Bowers at 17th and he's going 24th in drafts. When should you pull the trigger on a tight end? Is he worth that much capital?
- How early will the quarterback run come? Will the latest fantasy football rankings hold up? Our mock draft has two QBs going in the second round (Allen and Jackson) and two in the third round (Jayden Daniels at 29 and Jalen Hurts at 35). Drafters had Allen off the board with the 15th overall pick and had five going in the first three rounds.
Rounds 3 and 4
| Mock Draft | Actual Draft | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (25) | Trey McBride | TE | ARZ | Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI |
| 2 (26) | Kyren Williams | RB | LA | James Cook | RB | BUF |
| 3 (27) | Tyreek Hill | WR | MIA | Chase Brown | RB | CIN |
| 4 (28) | Chase Brown | RB | CIN | Trey McBride | TE | ARZ |
| 5 (29) | Jayden Daniels | QB | WAS | Joe Burrow | QB | CIN |
| 6 (30) | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | Tee Higgins | WR | CIN |
| 7 (31) | Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | Ladd McConkey | WR | LAC |
| 8 (32) | Breece Hall | RB | NYJ | Bucky Irving | RB | TB |
| 9 (33) | James Cook | RB | BUF | Jayden Daniels | QB | WAS |
| 10 (34) | Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | Omarion Hampton | RB | LAC |
| 11 (35) | Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | Breece Hall | RB | NYJ |
| 12 (36) | Terry McLaurin | WR | WAS | Marvin Harrison | WR | ARZ |
| 4th round | ||||||
| 1 (37) | Marvin Harrison | WR | ARZ | Mike Evans | WR | TB |
| 2 (38) | Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | George Kittle | TE | SF |
| 3 (39) | Omarion Hampton | RB | LAC | Davante Adams | WR | LAR |
| 4 (40) | Mike Evans | WR | TB | Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ |
| 5 (41) | George Kittle | TE | SF | Alvin Kamara | RB | NO |
| 6 (42) | Alvin Kamara | RB | NO | Kenneth Walker | RB | SEA |
| 7 (43) | Davante Adams | WR | LA | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA |
| 8 (44) | Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR | Terry McLaurin | WR | WAS |
| 9 (45) | Kenneth Walker | RB | SEA | James Conner | RB | ARZ |
| 10 (46) | James Conner | RB | ARZ | Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC |
| 11 (47) | DK Metcalf | WR | PIT | DK Metcalf | WR | PIT |
| 12 (48) | DJ Moore | WR | CHI | Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR |
Takeaways:
- Is Jaxon Smith-Njigba a mid-third round or mid-fourth round pick? Depends on who you ask it seems.
- Keep an eye on the rookies: After Jeanty went early, the next notable rookie to go should be TreVeyon Henderson early to mid fifth round. And Jaguars rookie WR Travis Hunter gets more love in the mock draft (66th overall pick) than in the actual drafts (70th). Could he be a sleeper steal?
