Let's take a look at Week 17:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | REDSKINS | 23.20% | 275 | 73.33 | 6.19 |
| SEAHAWKS | Cardinals | 16.80% | 750 | 88.24 | 1.98 |
| TEXANS | Jaguars | 13.30% | 295 | 74.68 | 3.37 |
| STEELERS | Bengals | 12.80% | 900 | 90.00 | 1.28 |
| PATRIOTS | Jets | 6.20% | 750 | 88.24 | 0.73 |
| RAMS | 49ers | 4.40% | 450 | 81.82 | 0.80 |
| Cowboys | GIANTS | 4.00% | 42 | 29.58 | 2.82 |
| CHIEFS | Raiders | 3.50% | 750 | 88.24 | 0.41 |
| RAVENS | Browns | 3.20% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.94 |
| PACKERS | Lions | 2.00% | 310 | 75.61 | 0.49 |
| BILLS | Dolphins | 2.00% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.74 |
| SAINTS | Panthers | 1.20% | 387.5 | 79.49 | 0.25 |
| GIANTS | Cowboys | 1.00% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.29 |
| VIKINGS | Bears | 1.00% | 220 | 68.75 | 0.31 |
| Dolphins | BILLS | 1.00% | 59 | 37.11 | 0.63 |
| BUCCANEERS | Falcons | 0.70% | 90 | 47.37 | 0.37 |
| TITANS | Colts | 0.70% | 37 | 27.01 | 0.51 |
| REDSKINS | Eagles | 0.50% | 37 | 27.01 | 0.36 |
| Colts | TITANS | 0.50% | 135 | 57.45 | 0.21 |
| Chargers | BRONCOS | 0.20% | 275 | 73.33 | 0.05 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Keep in mind the percentage-owned numbers get very noisy this time of year, so you must look at your particular pools to see who has what teams available and do your own estimates.
My Picks
1. Kansas City Chiefs
They're playing for the top seed in the AFC, and they're at home against the Raiders. I give the Chiefs a 91 percent chance to win this game.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
Let's take a look at Week 17:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | REDSKINS | 23.20% | 275 | 73.33 | 6.19 |
| SEAHAWKS | Cardinals | 16.80% | 750 | 88.24 | 1.98 |
| TEXANS | Jaguars | 13.30% | 295 | 74.68 | 3.37 |
| STEELERS | Bengals | 12.80% | 900 | 90.00 | 1.28 |
| PATRIOTS | Jets | 6.20% | 750 | 88.24 | 0.73 |
| RAMS | 49ers | 4.40% | 450 | 81.82 | 0.80 |
| Cowboys | GIANTS | 4.00% | 42 | 29.58 | 2.82 |
| CHIEFS | Raiders | 3.50% | 750 | 88.24 | 0.41 |
| RAVENS | Browns | 3.20% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.94 |
| PACKERS | Lions | 2.00% | 310 | 75.61 | 0.49 |
| BILLS | Dolphins | 2.00% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.74 |
| SAINTS | Panthers | 1.20% | 387.5 | 79.49 | 0.25 |
| GIANTS | Cowboys | 1.00% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.29 |
| VIKINGS | Bears | 1.00% | 220 | 68.75 | 0.31 |
| Dolphins | BILLS | 1.00% | 59 | 37.11 | 0.63 |
| BUCCANEERS | Falcons | 0.70% | 90 | 47.37 | 0.37 |
| TITANS | Colts | 0.70% | 37 | 27.01 | 0.51 |
| REDSKINS | Eagles | 0.50% | 37 | 27.01 | 0.36 |
| Colts | TITANS | 0.50% | 135 | 57.45 | 0.21 |
| Chargers | BRONCOS | 0.20% | 275 | 73.33 | 0.05 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Keep in mind the percentage-owned numbers get very noisy this time of year, so you must look at your particular pools to see who has what teams available and do your own estimates.
My Picks
1. Kansas City Chiefs
They're playing for the top seed in the AFC, and they're at home against the Raiders. I give the Chiefs a 91 percent chance to win this game.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
They're at home against the Jeff Driskell-led Bengals with a potential playoff berth on the line. I give the Steelers a 90 percent chance to win this game.
3. New England Patriots
They're at home against the Jets and playing for a first-round bye. I give the Patriots an 88 percent chance to win this game.
4. Los Angeles Rams
They're home against a banged up 49ers team and playing for a first-round bye. I give the Rams an 85 percent chance to win this game.
5. Seattle Seahawks
I have no idea why they're favored by so much as Seattle could easily rest its starters and take the sixth seed instead of the fifth, but the Cardinals are terrible, the game is in Seattle, and I guess playing in Dallas in January is better than going to Chicago. I give the Seahawks a 79 percent chance to win this game.
6. Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers looked like himself last week, and the Packers get one last home game against a weak Lions team. I give the Packers a 78 percent chance to win this game.
7.Houston Texans
They're fighting for seeding, playing at home and draw a Jaguars team that barely fields an NFL offense. I give the Texans a 76 percent chance to win this game.
8. Philadelphia Eagles
They have a road game against a divison rival, but the Redskins just cut their best safety, and like the Jaguars they're barely fielding an NFL offense right now. I give the Eagles a 75 percent chance to win this game.
9. Los Angeles Chargers
They're on the road in a tough venue, but Denver's offense has been decimated by injuries, and the Chargers still have a remote shot at the No. 1 seed. I give Los Angeles a 74 percent chance to win this game.
10.New York Giants
They're not a good team, but the Cowboys are locked into the fourth seed and have no reason not to rest their starters. I give the Giants a 74 percent chance to win this game.
11. Baltimore Ravens
They're a tough team at home, fighting to get into the playoffs, but the Browns are a game opponent led by a rapidly-improving young quarterback. I give the Ravens a 72 percent chance to win this game.
12. Buffalo Bills
I'd only use them if I were desperate, but they're at home in what could be cold weather against an out-of-the-hunt warm-weather opponent. I give the Bills a 66 percent chance to win this game.
13 Indianapolis Colts
Marcus Mariota is banged up and could miss the game, and Jurrell Casey is out. That's two of the Titans top five players, so even though this is a huge playoff-qualifying game, I'd use the Colts on the road in a pinch. I give them a 64 percent chance to win this game.
14. New Orleans Saints
I have no idea why the line is so big - I get the Panthers are down to their third QB, but the Saints are locked into the No. 1 seed and have nothing for which to play. I give them a 60 percent chance to win this game.
15. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are at home and fighting for a playoff spot, but the Bears still have a long shot to snag the No. 2 seed if the Rams were to lose to the 49ers. Accordingly, I give the Vikings a 57 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions: None
