This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at Week 5, arguably the most interesting slate of the season to date:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEELERS | Jaguars | 43.60% | 385 | 79.38% | 8.99 |
| EAGLES | Cardinals | 29.80% | 285 | 74.03% | 7.74 |
| Patriots | BUCCANEERS | 6.40% | 225 | 69.23% | 1.97 |
| GIANTS | Chargers | 6.40% | 175 | 63.64% | 2.33 |
| Vikings | BEARS | 2.80% | 160 | 61.54% | 1.08 |
| Jets | BROWNS | 1.30% | 91 | 47.64% | 0.68 |
| BENGALS | Bills | 1.30% | 140 | 58.33% | 0.54 |
| LIONS | Panthers | 1.20% | 145 | 59.18% | 0.49 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
It's rare for the biggest favorite to be south of 80 percent, and rarer still for no other team to be above 75. But that's the situation this week, leaving us with three viable choices (per Vegas and the polling data): the Steelers, Eagles and Patriots.
Let's compare the Steelers and Eagles first. A Steelers win/Eagles loss is 20.6 percent, while an Eagles win/Steelers loss is 15.2 percent. The risk ratio in taking the Eagles is therefore 20.6/15.2 = 1.35.
But if the Steelers lose, they take 44 people with them. Plus the other eight or so people on other teams for a total of 52. In our hypothetical
Let's take a look at Week 5, arguably the most interesting slate of the season to date:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEELERS | Jaguars | 43.60% | 385 | 79.38% | 8.99 |
| EAGLES | Cardinals | 29.80% | 285 | 74.03% | 7.74 |
| Patriots | BUCCANEERS | 6.40% | 225 | 69.23% | 1.97 |
| GIANTS | Chargers | 6.40% | 175 | 63.64% | 2.33 |
| Vikings | BEARS | 2.80% | 160 | 61.54% | 1.08 |
| Jets | BROWNS | 1.30% | 91 | 47.64% | 0.68 |
| BENGALS | Bills | 1.30% | 140 | 58.33% | 0.54 |
| LIONS | Panthers | 1.20% | 145 | 59.18% | 0.49 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
It's rare for the biggest favorite to be south of 80 percent, and rarer still for no other team to be above 75. But that's the situation this week, leaving us with three viable choices (per Vegas and the polling data): the Steelers, Eagles and Patriots.
Let's compare the Steelers and Eagles first. A Steelers win/Eagles loss is 20.6 percent, while an Eagles win/Steelers loss is 15.2 percent. The risk ratio in taking the Eagles is therefore 20.6/15.2 = 1.35.
But if the Steelers lose, they take 44 people with them. Plus the other eight or so people on other teams for a total of 52. In our hypothetical 100-person, $10 buy-in pool, that means 48 would remain, and one's equity goes from $10 to $20.83.
If the Eagles lose, 30 people are out, plus another eight, leaving 62 remaining. 1000/62 = $16.13. The reward ratio is $20.83/$16.13 = 1.29. So the reward for taking the Eagles doesn't quite make up for the risk, at least per the Vegas numbers.
But what about the Patriots? A Steelers win/Patriots loss is 24.5 percent, while a Patriots win/Steelers loss is 14.3 percent. That risk ratio is therefore 1.72.
But only six people would lose with the Patriots, plus 14 with other teams (including the Eagles), meaning there would be 80 people left. 1000/80 = $12.50. We saw above that if the Steelers lost there would be 44 people down, plus another 14 (now that the Eagles are included), making the payout 1000/42 = $23.81. The ratio of $23.81/$12.50 is 1.9.
In this case, the risk is much greater, but so is the reward. In fact - if you believe the Vegas numbers and the polling data - the Pats are the pick.
My Picks
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
I like the Steelers at home and am laying the points in Beating the Book. The Jaguars look good defensively, but they've played a laughably easy schedule, and I expect the Steelers defense to have its way with Blake Bortles if they get a lead. I give the Steelers an 82 percent chance to win this game.
2. New England Patriots
I don't trust the Patriots defense, and this is an odd short-week road game, making it even more of a wild card. But this is more of a fade-the-Eagles as a 30-percent owned team than a back-the-Pats. I give the Patriots a 68 percent chance to win this game.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles should be able to handle the Cardinals at home, but their secondary is poor, and Arizona's defense isn't bad. I'd be fine with them at 20 percent ownership but this is too high, given their relatively modest win probability. I give the Eagles a 72 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
New York Giants - They're the only other favorite of more than three points, but I see the Chargers as a roughly equal team, and both are desperate animals at 0-4.
