This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
RBC Canadian Open Betting Preview
After a two-year hiatus, the PGA Tour returns to Ontario for this week's RBC Canadian Open at St. George's Golf and Country Club. As the tune-up to next week's U.S. Open, the field lacks depth, but there is some star power at the top, with world No. 1 and co-favorite Scottie Scheffler -- who checks in at 7-1 -- headlining a group that features five of the top 10 players in the Official World Golf Ranking. The last version of the event in 2019 was won by Rory McIlroy, who at 10-1 cruised to a seven-shot victory over Shane Lowry and Webb Simpson.
St. George's, which will host this event for the first time since 2010, plays as a par-70 at approximately 7,100 yards and features three par-5s and five par-3s. We don't have much data to draw from, but all signs point to this being a second shot golf course, as the faiways are wide and the rough is thick, putting less emphasis on the driver than usual. Considering the top two finishers in 2010 ranked second and third in Strokes Gained: Putting, players who excel up close will be better bets than they are at an average Tour stop. That will likely lead to some variance near the top of the leaderboard, as the shorter hitters will be at less of a disadvantage. Don't be surprised if some unfamiliar names find themselves in the mix this week.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 5:00 PM ET Tuesday.
Approach at Will
The following five players gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.
- Scottie Scheffler: 1.06
- Cameron Smith: 1.01
- Harold Varner: 0.92
- Sam Burns: 0.81
- C.T. Pan: 0.72
Checking in at the top of the list is Scheffler, who could not hold a 54-hole lead at Colonial and fell in a playoff to Burns. The top ranked player in the world and the winner of four tournaments this season simply does everything really well, gaining over 0.2 shots per round in each Strokes Gained category. His stellar iron play has helped him rank second in greens in regulation, and he is clearly plenty worthy of co-favorite status. Much further down the board we find Pan at 80-1 to win. He has been hot with his irons gaining strokes on approach in each of his last nine tournaments. He did not record a top-10 in any of those starts, but he came close several times. This course does have some similarities to Harbour Town, which is the site of Pan's only PGA Tour victory.
RBC Canadian Open Bets: Outright Picks
Cameron Smith (10-1)
It's difficult to look past Smith on a course that emphasizes elite short game play, as no one on Tour is better on and around the greens. He comes in hot, finishing top-15 in four of his last five tournaments, including a T13 at Jack's Place -- a venue he has struggled at in the past. It won't be a huge payout if he wins, but he's my top target among the favorites.
Keith Mitchell (50-1)
Some bettors may fade Mitchell at a course that doesn't appear to be the best fit, but he has played well at a variety of venues this year and is too good a value to pass up in this field. He ranks a stellar sixth in SG: Off-the-Tee this season, which has helped him record seven top-15 finishes.
Jhonattan Vegas (70-1)
I know the event isn't being played at Glen Abbey, where Vegas hoisted the trophy both times he won the Canadian Open. At least we know he plays well north of the border, though. Vegas is one of the best ball strikers in the field, gaining 0.81 strokes per round off the tee and on approach this season. He has a high ceiling, with runner-up finishes in three events since the start of 2021.
RBC Canadian Open Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Sahith Theegala (11-2)
Theegala has now made eight cuts in a row, culminating in a T5 result at the Memorial. That was his second top-10 during that stretch and his third such result in 2022. The Tour rookie nearly won in Phoenix, and while he's been average at best on the putting surface, he has impressed in other facets of the game. I like him to keep the momentum rolling in Canada.
Adam Long (8-1)
I wrote about Long a few weeks back, and while he hasn't been able to cash a top-10 this year he's been right there a couple times. His short game carried him to his lone win in 2019, and as a precision player and one of the better putters in the field, he should be in prime position to perform.
Doug Ghim (11-1)
Ghim is currently outside the cut line for the FedExCup Playoffs, but his numbers are better than his results suggest. He's gaining 0.42 shots per round off the tee and on approach, and his lack of distance with the driver shouldn't be much of a detriment this week.
RBC Canadian Open Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Corey Conners (-120) over Harold Varner III
It will be interesting to see how Varner responds following a final-round 78 at Colonial, where he imploded on the back nine after being tied for the lead. While Varner has played well this season, Conners has been better. He is a great fit for one-on-one matchups, having finished top-25 in four of his last five starts.
Matt Fitzpatrick (-110) over Shane Lowry
Fitzpatrick is coming off just his third missed cut of the season. He responded in fine fashion in the previous two instances, registering finishes of T2 and T5. He's been one of the best players on Tour this season and leads the way in SG: Total. Lowry has also been playing well, but he isn't the strongest around the green and has cooled a little since his strong start to the year.
RBC Canadian Open Bets: End of Round 1 Leader
Tony Finau (40-1)
Finau seems to be slightly under the radar right now despite notching a pair of top-5s over his last four starts. He has proven he can go low, shooting a 63 in Mexico last month to tie for the low round in the final round.
