This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting Preview
The first of three playoff events kicks off this week in Memphis, Tennessee, for the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind. 70 golfers will battle for the trophy in this no-cut event, and the top 50 in the FedExCup Standings will advance to next week's BMW Championship. Scottie Scheffler headlines as the tournament favorite at +330, while Xander Schauffele (8-1) and Rory McIlroy (10-1) are not too far behind. Last year, longshot Lucas Glover (90-1) won for a second straight week, defeating Patrick Cantlay on the first playoff hole.
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Course Overview
Par 70, 7,243 yards
These are the average rankings of the champions at TPC Southwind since 2019.
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 17.0
- SG: Approach: 7.0
- SG: Around-the-Green: 22.6
- SG: Putting: 20.6
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 3.2
- Driving Distance: 31.0
- Driving Accuracy: 17.4
TPC Southwind has hosted a Tour event every year dating back to 1989 with this being the third year as a playoff event, and the first thing that stands out is that this is a tight course in which the fairways average less than 30 yards wide and are tree-lined with several dogleg holes. Water is in play on about half of the holes, although there are only a couple holes with water danger off-the-tee. Nevertheless, the premium is certainly on accuracy over distance which is evidenced in the statistics above. Tee-to-green play also stands out in the stats, with the winner ranking fourth or better in the category in four consecutive years. In addition to accurate drivers and strong tee-to-green players, I'll be targeting players that approach it well from 125-175 yards and players that rank well in bogey avoidance.
Course History
The following golfers have the lowest scoring average at TPC Southwind over the last five years.
- Will Zalatoris: 66.6
- Taylor Moore: 67.7
- Sam Burns: 67.8
- Harris English: 67.9
- Justin Thomas: 67.9
Zalatoris' back injury prevented him from defending his title after winning in a playoff in 2022, and he also finished in a share for eighth the year prior. Something will have to give between his past success and recent form, as Zalatoris has missed three consecutive cuts following his withdrawal (back) in the third round of the Rocket Mortgage last month. Another player on the list that has shown an affinity at the Memphis course is Burns, and he comes in with much better form with five top-15s over his last eight starts. He's having a solid statistical season across the board, gaining shots in every strokes gained category while also being above average in driving distance and accuracy. Burns makes for a sneaky choice at 45-1 odds.
Current Form
These five players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes from tee to green over their last 20 rounds.
- Scottie Scheffler: 3.31
- Rory McIlroy: 2.11
- Xander Schauffele: 2.10
- Cameron Young: 1.79
- Collin Morikawa: 1.70
A slow start and a poor putting performance wasn't enough to hold Scheffler back in Paris, as he stormed late to take home the Gold Medal. Once again, he dominated with his ball striking, ranking third in SG: Off-the-Tee and first on approach at Le Golf National. Although he does have seven wins over his last 12 starts, Scheffler has failed to post a top-10 in six trips to Memphis. Meanwhile, Morikawa has also been in good form from tee to green recently and ranks eighth in the category for the year. He's finished no worse than T24 since The Masters (12 starts) and has established himself as one of the most consistent golfers on Tour. He's avoided mistakes (10th in bogey avoidance) in large part to ranking fourth in driving accuracy this season.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Bets: Outright Picks
Hideki Matsuyama (25-1)
Coming off an outright win with Aaron Rai last week, I'll start the picks off with Matsuyama who lost in a playoff here in 2021 and was only six shots back last year. On top of liking the venue, he's coming off a strong tournament at Le Golf National in which he took home a Bronze Medal.
Tommy Fleetwood (25-1)
Staying with golfers that are hot, Fleetwood was one better than Matsuyama at the Olympics to take home Silver. He also finished one shot out of a playoff at the event last year and was T4 here in 2019.
Sungjae Im (35-1)
Im has a nice track record at the event with finishes of 12th and T6 and has gained over a stroke per round off the tee in both trips. Im's PGA Tour winless drought is coming up on three years but with six top-10s in his last 10 starts, I can't imagine that lasts much longer.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Bets: Placement Wagers
Robert MacIntyre
Top-10 Finish: 6-1
With a pair of wins this summer, there aren't many players trending better than MacIntyre. This will be his first trip to TPC Southwind, but his all-around game (gaining shots in every strokes gained category) makes him a good fit at most places.
Taylor Pendrith
Top-10 Finish: 6-1
Pendrith made the cut here two years ago (when 125 players made the playoffs) and was eighth in SG: Off-the-tee but had a horrible week on the greens. He's 10th in putting this year, and is coming off back-to-back top-5 finishes.
Max Greyserman
Top-5 Finish: 11-1
Greyserman has posted runner-up finishes in each of his last two tournaments, so here's to betting that the hot streak continues into the first playoff event like it did for Glover last year. The 29-year-old rookie has plenty of length off the tee and combines it with great feel on the greens.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Thomas Detry (+100) over Min Woo Lee
Lee is a tough guy to back right now, especially in matchups, having missed two of his last three cuts. He only beat three golfers in his only appearance at the event, and his inaccuracy with driver is cause for concern. I'll side with the steadier Detry, who has compiled eight top-20s this year.
Homa has really fallen off this year with his last top-20 coming at the Wells Fargo back in May. Even more alarming, he's lost over a shot on approach in his last two tournaments and been negative ball striking in four straight. Hoge makes for the better course fit as an accurate driver and elite iron player.
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