This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
Mexico Open at Vidanta Betting Preview
It has been a wild start to the 2024 season, as we've now seen seven consecutive long shots pick up wins at 70-1 odds or above!
We will see if that trend continues this week, as the PGA Tour heads south of the border for the third installment of the Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta.
With this tournament falling between a Signature Event and the Florida Swing, we have a weaker field than you see at a typical PGA Tour event. In fact, just four of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Ranking will tee it up -- a group of players headlined by tournament favorite Tony Finau, who checks in with 17-2 odds.
Last year, Finau -- at the exact same price -- defeated Jon Rahm by three strokes for his sixth PGA Tour victory.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 1:30 PM ET Wednesday.
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Course Characteristics
Par-71, 7,456 yards
Average Strokes Gained Rankings: Mexico Open at Vidanta Winners
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 2.0
- SG: Approach: 18.5
- SG: Around-the-Green: 17.5
- SG: Putting: 13.0
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 2.0
- Driving Distance: 10.0
- Driving Accuracy: 13.0
Although we only have two years of data to draw from, past champions Jon Rahm and Finau have shown that this is a course where driving it long and straight is a huge advantage. Unlike some other places in Mexico, Vallarta does not play at elevation and plays true to its yardage and has six par-4s that are 460+ yards. Off the tee, players are faced with fairways that average over 40 yards wide and less than two-inch rough that gives players that freedom to bomb away without much worry. Note that despite this being a par-71, there are five par-3s and four par-5s. In addition to long hitters, I'll also be looking for players that approach it well from 175+ yards, as the length of the course doesn't set up for many wedges or short irons.
Brilliant at Vidanta Vallarta
The following golfers, with a minimum of six rounds played, have the lowest scoring average at Vidanta Vallarta.
- Tony Finau: 66.0
- Brandon Wu: 66.6
- Cameron Champ: 67.5
- Patrick Rodgers: 67.8
- Emiliano Grillo: 68.1
Defending champion Finau tops the list unsurprisingly consider he finished T2 here the year before. On top of being able to take advantage of an off-week for the majority of the top-50 players, his superb ball striking capabilities make him the clear player to beat this week. In fact, he's one of just two players with better than 22-1 odds to win. Right behind him on this list is Wu, who followed up his T2 finish in 2022 with a solo third place result last year. He's only posted three top-25 results since his strong showing last year, however. Nevertheless, he feels overlooked by the oddsmakers at 60-1 odds.
On Fire Off the Tee
These players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes off the tee over their last 20 rounds.
- Keith Mitchell: 0.74
- MJ Daffue: 0.70
- Cameron Champ: 0.69
- Tyler Duncan: 0.62
- Tony Finau: 0.61
With driving play being a key factor at Vidanta, it's important to note that Mitchell's specialty of driving it long and relatively straight should be rewarded here. It will be his first appearance at the event, and he comes in with a pair of top-20s over his last four starts. He's tied for the third favorite on the board at 22-1 odds and should be on the radar for DFS players at under $10k on DraftKings. One player we see on both lists is Champ, which certainly makes sense considering he's one of the longest drivers on Tour. He's used that strength to post back-to-back top-10s at the venue but yet he can be had at 50-1 odds. Champ led the field in SG: Off the tee here in 2022 and was fourth a year ago.
Mexico Open at Vidanta: Outright Picks
Nicolai Hojgaard (14-1)
Hojgaard looks to be one of the best course fits in the field as he should be able to overpower the course with his superb length off the tee to set up a lot of birdie chances. He already has a runner-up against a much stronger field this year, and this should be a good opportunity for him to one-up that performance.
Stephan Jaeger (22-1)
Jaeger couldn't seal the deal after holding a multiple shot lead in the final round of the Farmers last month, but a lot of times those experiences lead to a win the next time a player is in contention. Jaeger was second in SG: Approach here last year and has two top-20s at the event.
Thorbjorn Olesen (25-1)
Olesen is finally making his first start stateside this year and comes in hot after winning on the DP World Tour in his last start. The 34-year-old and former European Ryder Cup member is playing some of the best golf his career after posting eight top-10s and a victory overseas in 2023.
Mexico Open at Vidanta: Top-10 Wagers
Charley Hoffman (13-2)
I'm surprised Hoffman has such lofty odds considering how well he played at the WM Phoenix Open, where he lost in a playoff to Nick Taylor. The 47-year old seems to be regaining some of his old form and should be able to play well against much weaker competition than the last two weeks.
Greyson Sigg (7-1)
Sigg has a respectable course history here having made the cuts both years and was ninth in SG: Tee to green en route to a T18 result last year. His game appears to be in solid form with a pair of top-20s over his last five starts.
Ben Kohles (11-1)
Kohles regained his Tour card following a strong year on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 in which he won twice and had four top-10s over his last five events. We've seen him play well at this level, too, as he posted a top-10 result at The RSM Classic in November.
Mexico Open at Vidanta: Head-to-Head Matchups
Taylor Pendrith (-110) over Thomas Detry
Coming off a successful 2-0 week in matchups, I'll start this week fading Detry, who will be making his first appearance at the event and has lost strokes on approach in his last three tournaments. Meanwhile, Pendrith has been incredibly hot lately with four top-10s over his last seven events and had a respectable T30 showing here last year.
Aaron Rai (+100) over Mark Hubbard
A matchup between two pretty even golfers with similar playing styles, I'll gladly lean towards Rai at even money and the slight underdog. I think Hubbard's value is being inflated by a T4 at Pebble in which he had an abnormally good putting week. Rai tends to be a more consistent option for matchups having made 69 percent of cuts last season compared to 56 percent for Hubbard.
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