This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
3M OPEN
Purse: $7.5M
Winner's Share: $1.35M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Blaine, Minn.
Course: TPC Twin Cities
Yardage: 7,431
Par: 71
2021 winner: Cameron Champ
Tournament Preview
The four major championships came at us in rapid fashion, all played within roughly a three-month span. The conclusion of the Open Championship on Sunday signals that we are now entering the home stretch of the 2021-22 PGA Tour season. Just three regular-season tournaments remain before the three-event playoffs. Up first is the 3M Open, followed by the Rocket Mortgage Classic and the Wyndham Championship. With all the majors and other big tournaments so closely bunched over the past few months, we may not see many of the top players till the playoffs begin with the FedEx St. Jude Championship on Aug. 11.
But for now it's off to the Land of 10,000 Lakes.
All 10,000 of them are not located at TPC Twin Cities, it only seems that way. The course features an astounding 27 water hazards affecting 15 of the 18 holes. Ever since this tournament joined the PGA Tour schedule in 2019, it has been the preeminent place for water balls -- yes, more than even TPC Sawgrass. A lot more.
There were more than 300 water balls in both 2020 and and 2021. Last year, there were 161 double bogeys across the four days, plus 36 triple bogeys or worse. What started out as a birdie-fest in 2019 with Matthew Wolff winning at 21-under saw Michael Thompson win at 19-under in 2020 and Cameron Champ at only 15-under last year.
The 18th hole is a 596-yard par-5, and today's golfers usually eat those up. Not this one. It is a beast. With water guarding the front of the green, it was the third hardest hole on the course last year, barely under par, with 17 double bogeys and four triple bogeys or worse. It is one of the hardest par-5s on the entire Tour. The 202-yard 17th was almost as dastardly, with 19 doubles and three triples/worse. The 502-yard par-4 ninth is traditionally the hardest hole, so no matter where you start during the first two rounds, you have a rugged finishing hole. Last year, Dustin Johnson came to 18 needing a birdie to make the cut, found water and went home.
Everything we've said already is relevant info to help you determine your lineups. But we have been delaying in telling you about the field because, well, it ain't great. It was far better last year even following the Open, but in 2021 there was a dark week afterward or most of the Tour with the Olympics being played. This year, we are zooming toward the playoffs, uninterrupted.
No. 14-ranked Hideki Matsuyama, No. 17 Tony Finau and No. 24 Sungjae Im head the field, at least in terms of the world rankings. Others of note are Rickie Fowler, Jason Day, Davis Riley, Sahith Theegala, J.T. Poston, Cameron Tringale and Champ. There's also Tom Hoge from North Dakota and Adam Hadwin from Canada who could qualify as pseudo-locals, plus Chris Gotterup, the former Oklahoma star who nearly won the John Deere before tying for fourth in his third tournament as a pro. Cole Hammers from the University of Texas is in the field, as is Dylan Menante the No. 6 amateur in the world whose former teammate at Pepperdine was Theegala.
The last name we want to tell you about is Mardy Fish, the former No. 7 men's *tennis* player in the world who won six singles titles on the ATP Tour and captained the 2019 U.S. Davis Cup team. The 40-year-old Minnesota native is an excellent golfer who won the big celebrity tournament at Lake Tahoe in 2020. Of course, there is precedent for athletes in other sports getting in on sponsor invites. Tony Romo played in a few PGA Tour events and Steph Curry was in a Korn Ferry event. Romo is a three-time winner of that celebrity tournament, including just a few weeks ago, when Fish finished sixth. Fish's odds were posted at 5000-1.
The PGA Tour returned to Minnesota in 2019 after a half-century absence. There had been a lot of big-time golf there in the interim, including the Ryder Cup only six years ago at Hazeltine, which has also played host to U.S. Opens, PGA Championships, the 2019 Women's PGA Championship and nearly two decades' worth of a PGA Champions stops, among other majors and big events. But as for the PGA Tour, there had been nothing since the Minnesota Golf Classic in 1969. As you'll recall, Frank Beard came away with the title, ending the tournament's nearly four-decade run dating to 1930.
TPC Twin Cities opened in 2000, an Arnold Palmer design with an assist from Minnesotan Tom Lehman, who further assisted with a renovation four years ago in an effort to toughen the track for the regular Tour golfers. Lehman, now 64, received a sponsor's invite the first two years.
The course is very long, nearly 7,500 yards as a par-71. That's much longer than it was for the Champions event, where they simply tore up the track. The winning score was often in the neighborhood of 20-under, with the 25-under record set by David Frost in 2010. And remember, those numbers were for only 54 holes, so they were some of the biggest birdie-fests you'll ever see. "We set it up as easy as you can set it up for the Champions Tour," 3M tournament founder Hollis Cavner was quoted as saying three years ago. "We wanted low scores, we wanted fireworks, and we got them. The course is much harder now. Five or six strokes harder."
It didn't start out that way in 2019, but the course has gotten harder every year. Even though it's long and has all that water, the wind needs to be blowing to really thwart the golfers. The fairways are very wide -- more than 30 yards at the 300-, 325-, and 350-yard checkpoints. That lets the golfers fire at the bigger-than-average, 6,500-square-foot bentgrass greens that will run about 12 on the Stimpmeter. Interestingly, besides all those double and triple bogeys we told you about, there are also a lot of birdies. There are some super long holes: All three par-5s are 590+ yards, there are two par-4s more than 500 and three of the four par-3s are at least 200. The biggest trouble spot has annually been the par-4, 502-yard ninth, one of the hardest holes on the entire PGA Tour. Two other long par-4s on the front are also formidable -- the 468-yard second and the 501-yard third. All in all, the track ranked middle of the pack on the difficulty meter last year, 24th hardest out of 51 courses.
Weather-wise, it will be hot, with high temperatures 85 to 90 all four days. The only rain in the forecast is a chance of thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon. The wind is expected to be light to moderate.
Key Stats to Winning at TPC Twin Cities
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance but also Driving Accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Par-4 Efficiency: 450-500 yards (5 holes)
• Bogey Avoidance
Past Champions
2021 - Cameron Champ
2020 - Michael Thompson
2019 - Matthew Wolff
Champion's Profile
Here's a good suggestion if you want to win the 3M Open. Make a lot of putts but not a lot of bogeys. Gee, why don't more golfers try that approach? A lot of birdies will be made -- there have been a bunch of 63s and even 62s in the first three editions -- but so will double and triple bogeys, hence the Key stat for bogey avoidance. Champ, never known for his putting, led the field in Strokes Gained: Putting last year. On the weekend, he incredibly had only one over-par hole, a double bogey on 14 on Saturday. Champ of course hit it far, but not the farthest, as he was eighth in driving distance. His other other numbers were okay -- 10th in SG: Approach, 22nd in greens in regulation, 27th in SG: Tee-to-Green -- but that combination of putting and avoidng mistakes was too tough to overcome. There was more than one way to contend. Right behind Champ were Louis Oosthuizen, Charl Schwartzel and Jhonnatan Vegas. Schwartzel did his damage on the green, the other two were sound tee to green. Like Champ, Wolff in 2019 was a very long hitter. But Thompson is nothing of the sort. Thompson in 2020 also led the field in putting; Wolff was far back. So there is clearly more than one way to win this tournament. The over/under on the winning score on golfodds.com is 265.5, which is 18.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Tony Finau - $10,500 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1100)
Finau is the top guy on the DK board and well under $11,000. We are giving you four guys in the top tier, as is our charge every week, but we're not so sure any of them will be in our lineups. Most of the top guys are coming off a high-stress week at the Open Championship. They have to adjust to a seven-time-zone change in a matter of days. As for Finau, he was 28th at the Open. He's played here every year, also 28th last year but also third in 2020 and 23rd in 2019. If you haven't signed up yet, use the DraftKings promo code for a welcome bonus.
Sungjae Im - $10,000 (+1600)
Whenever trouble lurks and the propensity for bogeys -- or doubles or triples -- is great, we consider Im, who is ranked third on Tour in bogey avoidance, He was at St. Andrews, made the cut in an otherwise 81st-place showing. Im played here in 2019 and tied for 15th. He is ranked 13th on Tour in par-4 450-500.
Sahith Theegala - $9,800 (+2500)
Theegala was a late entry into the Open Championship and, while he had a great week with a T34, this pick does not come without hesitation. He's been playing a ton of golf, 20 times already in 2022. While he's made 12 straight cuts, this seems like a bit of a trap game in a very weak field when many indications are he could corral his breakthrough PGA Tour win. But there's no denying he's one of the top players in the tournament. Theegala is ranked 50th in par-4 450-500 and is ranked 39th in bogey avoidance.
Adam Hadwin - $9,600 (+1800)
The course is long, Hadwin is not a long hitter, but he's figured out how to play this track. He finished sixth here last year and fourth in 2019, when it was at the peak of its birdie-ness. Hadwin is ranked top-50 on Tour in driving accuracy, greens in regulation, SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Total. And he's 66th in Putting, making him one of the most well-rounded player on Tour.
Tier 2 Values
Davis Riley - $9,000 (+2200)
We have not seen Riley since the Travelers. He had just played six out of seven weeks, and while he had played great, it was time for a break before the end-of-season push. A case could be made that outside the guys who played in the Open Championship, he's the class of this field. He's top-50 on Tour in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Tee-to-Green, and just outside that in Putting.
Adam Long - $8,600 (+2500)
Long is not at his best on longer tracks, but he was runner-up here in 2020 and tied for 25th last year. He's very accurate off the tee, ranked 39th, plus an excellent putter, ranked 14th. Long is coming off three straight top-25s -- Canadian Open, Travelers and John Deere. Two of those tournaments aren't pushovers.
Brendan Steele - $8,300 (+4000)
A great, great ball striker, Steele is an elite fourth on Tour in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and 21st in greens in regulation. His putting is -- how can we say this delicately? -- really, really bad. He's made seven straight cuts culminating with the Travelers and he's been off since then so he's had a good break. Four of those seven ended with top-25s, highlighted by a top-10 at the PGA Championship. Steele played here in 2019 and made the cut.
Martin Laird - $8,200 (+4000)
Laird is similar to Steele in the ball-striking department -- 12th in driving accuracy, 31st in grens in regulation -- and also the putting department. He's made 10 of 14 cuts in 2022, including in some rugged fields, such as Bay Hill and the Memorial. He made the cut in the inaugural 3M Open but hadn't returned since.
Tier 3 Values
Brendon Todd - $7,700 (+4000)
Our affection for Todd is well known. Never did we expect to see his price this low. This is a long course, and not where we generally turn to Todd. But accuracy (ranked sixth on Tour) and putting (ranked third) are so important this week that we're gonna take the Todd plunge once more. Even though we know he missed the cut here last year. He's ranked 90th in par-4 450-500, which is better than more than half the Tour.
Emiliano Grillo - $7,600 (+6500)
Grillo is one of the best ball strikers in this field. He was third here two years ago. He's 32nd in driving accuracy and 52nd in greens in regulation but, like Stele and Laird, a terrible putter. Grillo put it all together a few weeks ago to finish as runner-up at the John Deere. He is ranked 18th on Tour in par-4 450-500.
Greyson Sigg - $7,200 (+10000)
Sigg has shaken off five straight missed cuts in the spring to make a late push for the top-125. In fact, he's 126th right now after making three straight cuts, two of them top-30s with one top-20. He's ranked 24th on Tour in bogey avoidance and 58th in greens in regulation.
Tom Hoge - $7,100 (+11000)
Had to do a double-take when we saw a golfer ranked in the top-50 in the world was $7100. Well, Hoge has fallen off a cliff. Since a top-10 at the PGA Championship, he's missed six straight cuts. That's bad no matter what metric you use, but they were all hard fields -- two majors, the Memorial, the Scottish Open, etc. -- and this week's isn't hard at all. Hoge made the 3M cut the first two years before missing last year.
Long-Shot Values
Callum Tarren - $7,000 (+13000)
Tarren's season-long stats would scare anybody off, but the Englishman has been far better of late. He was top-25 last week at the Barracuda, 31st at the U.S. Open, sixth at the John Deere. He's very capable of missing the cut even in this field, but he's clearly been showing that his $7000 price in relation to the rest of the field is a good bargain.
Ryan Armour - $6,900 (+15000)
Armour is back for his fourth go-round at the 3M. He's made two of three cuts and tied for sixth last year. He's missed three straight cuts coming in, so that may deter people. But we like that Armour is ranked 23rd on Tour in bogey avoidance and, get this, fourth in par-4 450-500.
Austin Cook - $6,700 (+20000)
Cook has made five straight cuts. Most of them were cupcake fields, but so is this one. He has a lot to play for in the final three weeks of the regular season. At 154th in FedEx Cup standings, the top-125 is still within reach but even the top-150 would be an important threshold for him. Cook is very short off the tee but also very accurate (ranked 14th), and he's ranked 61st in bogey avoidance.
Aaron Baddeley - $6,300 (+40000)
It's hard to believe Baddeley is now in his 40s, far removed from his best days. He used to be one of the game's best putters. He's now splitting time between the Korn Ferry and PGA Tours. He had made six straight cuts -- four on the Korn Ferry, two on PGA -- before missing at the quirky Barracuda Championship last week. All six of those fields have been weak, but so is this one. Baddeley has made the cut here the past two years here, too.
