DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: BMW Championship

THE BMW CHAMPIONSHIP

Purse: $8.5M
Winner's Share: $1,530,000
FedEx Cup Points: 2,000 to the Winner
Location: Carmel, Ind.
Course: Crooked Stick Golf Club
Yardage: 7,516
Par: 72
2015 champion: Jason Day

Tournament Preview

The BMW Championship, the third of the four playoff events, began as the old Western Open, which dates to 1899. Among all professional golf tournaments, only the Open Championship (1860) and U.S. Open (1885) are older. Crooked Stick first gained prominence in 1991, when a young John Daly came out of nowhere to win the PGA Championship. The course has hosted the BMW just once before, in 2012 when Rory McIlroy overtook Phil Mickelson for a 2-shot win in soft conditions at 20-under. As for recent course history, that's it, so there is little for gamers to consider. Only 29 of the golfers who teed it up just four years ago are in the 69-man field -- there was no Jason Day, no Jordan Spieth -- showing the incredible turnover in golf in a relatively short time. A young Rickie Fowler was on hand, tying for 41st. Of the 70 qualifiers for the penultimate event on the 2015-16 PGA Tour schedule, only Henrik Stenson will not tee it up, resting his injured knee in advance of the Tour Championship and, the following week, the Ryder Cup. At 24th in points, the Swede is virtually assured of being among the top-30 who will qualify for East Lake, Besides large sums of cash, the big perk for those 30 golfers will be automatic entry into the four 2017 majors. Traditionally, there is not a lot of movement into and out of the top-30. From 2012-14, two golfers per year gained entry; last year, there were four, a huge number. Remember, there is no cut this week, so your guys will have four rounds to figure out what to many will be a foreign course. In 2012, Crooked Stick played as the seventh easiest among the 49 Tour tracks. Conditions were soft, however, as a big storm preceded the event. Since then, the Pete-Dye designed layout has been toughened, not so much in distance but with a lake at the 17th hole and bunkers overhauled and added at strategic landing points. Still, the fairways are wide, at more than 30 yards at each carry point: 250 yards, 275, 300 and 325. So long hitters will have a green light off the tee. However, from there, they will be looking at greens that average only about 4,500 yards, making greens in regulation a bit tougher. For those who miss, that brings scrambling into play. Weather-wise, the Indianapolis-area forecast calls for afternoon thunderstorms on Thursday, a 100 percent chance of thunderstorms on Friday and an 80 percent on Saturday, so the course would again be softened and the golfers (and gamers) should prepare for delays. And perhaps consider early/late tee times on Thursday/Friday. Right now, only Sunday is forecast to be rain-free.

Key Stats to Winning at Crooked Stick

• Driving distance
• Greens in regulation
• Scrambling
• Putting average

Past Champions

2015 - Jason Day
2014 - Billy Horschel
2013 - Zach Johnson
2012 - Rory McIlroy
2011 - Justin Rose
2010 - Dustin Johnson
2009 - Tiger Woods
2008 - Camilo Villegash
2007 - Tiger Woods
2006 - Trevor Immelman

Champion's Profile:

With the fairways wide and the course extended to over 7,500 yards, leading to small greens, this course will favor long hitters and precise iron players. In 2012, Rory McIlroy won, with Phil Mickelson and Lee Westwood tying for second, two strokes back. The next four on the leaderboard were all bombers: Robert Garrigus, Dustin Johnson, Adam Scott and, yes, Tiger Woods. Mickelson is always a gamble, but McIlroy, Johnson and Scott all seem like strong first-page leaderboard candidates, and all were on form last week. It's tough enough to win even one week on the PGA Tour, so seeking a second straight is quite a reach. But McIlroy has proven to be streaky, stringing multiple victories together in 2012 and in 2014 (and, yes, San Francisco Giants fans, this is an even year).

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)

DraftKings Tier 1 Values

Rory McIlroy - $11,900 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 5-1)
Jason Day - $11,600 (7-1)
Dustin Johnson $11,300 (8-1)
Adam Scott - $10,200 (15-1)

DraftKings Tier 2 Values

Patrick Reed - $9,700 (20-1)
Sergio Garcia - $9,500 (30-1)
Louis Oosthuizen - $9,300 (30-1)
Rickie Fowler - $8,900 (30-1)

DraftKings Tier 3 Values

Ryan Moore - $8,700 (40-1)
Bubba Watson - $8,600 (40-1)
Gary Woodland- $8,400 (50-1)
Jimmy Walker - $8,100 (40-1)
J.B. Holmes - $7,600 (60-1)

DraftKings Long-Shot Values

Charl Schwartzel - $7,300 (60-1)
Jason Dufner - $6,900 (80-1)
Harris English - $6,700 (125-1)
Jim Herman - $6,100 (250-1)

MY ANALYSIS

Rory McIlroy moves to the head of the field, and rightly so. He will be highly owned, but don't overthink things: There's a reason he'll be highly owned. Don't avoid him just because others will pick him. Don't pick him because you think there are better options for your lineup. Jason Day is the number two golfer on the board, and don't dismiss him. He was not at his best last week, but he hears the footsteps from McIlroy and surely feels challenged. (Plus, he's a pretty good golfer.) Dustin Johnson was in the mix back in '12; the course suits him perfectly. Ditto for Adam Scott. All four could and likely will be highly owned.

Patrick Reed has had one week off since June, and yet he continues to perform. He could crash at anytime, but we're not expecting it this week. He's made a believer out of us. Sergio Garcia had an off-week last week. He was T24 at Crooked Stick and 2012, and he's a far better golfer now. Louis Oosthuizen was on form last week, and he's a surprisingly long hitter for a little guy. He tied for 16th in '12. Rickie Fowler might already have sewn up a Ryder Cup captain's pick, but in his mind he thinks he needs to play well to secure a berth. We'll find out when Davis Love III makes his three picks on Monday. By then, we think Fowler will have performed decently in the BMW.

Ryan Moore has a chance to be a captain's pick, too. Unlike Fowler, he has been playing quite well lately. No reason to suspect things will change. He tied for 10th in '12. Moore is worth more than Bubba Watson? Hard to believe, but that shows where Watson's game has been for most of the year. Watson tied for 12th at Crooked Stick in '12, and this course suits his game. He's another one that is on the Ryder Cup bubble. We're not sure how well Watson will respond to the pressure this week. What we do think is his price is a bit low. Gary Woodland is another long hitter, and he's been on form, tying for 15th last week and fourth the week before. Jimmy Walker, coming off last week's sterling solo third, is only $8,100. 'Nuff said. J.B. Holmes is another Ryder Cup hopeful, and he quietly has the backing of some golf analysts. He's had so-so results the past two weeks, but he's familiar with Crooked Stick, tying for 34th in '12. He's significantly improved since then.

We all need long shots to fill out our lineups, and here are four considerations. Charl Schwartzel tied for 28th in '12, and has the game to do better this time around. Jason Dufner has had a quietly solid season -- he's 19th in the point standings and will qualify for the Tour Championship. He hasn't missed a cut since the Masters and, while there's no cut this week, it illustrates how he's been playing. He tied for 28th in '12. At No. 44, Harris English needs a good week to get into the top-30. It won't be easy. But he understands the pressure involved, having been near the cut-off point the past three years. He's 31st in driving distance. Do we think he will contend? No, but we like him at his price point. Jim Herman is among two golfers at the bargain-basement price of $6,100. And while someone has to be last, we're a bit surprised it's him. Herman had a good week at TPC Boston, and being on form surely counts.