This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
DEUTSCHE BANK CHAMPIONSHIP
Purse: $8.5M
Winner's Share: $1,530,000
FedEx Cup Points: 2,000 to the Winner
Location: Norton, Mass.
Course: TPC Boston
Yardage: 7,214
Par: 71
2015 champion: Rickie Fowler
Tournament Preview
We now head to the second FedEx Cup playoff event, and traditionally the easiest of the four tracks. The Deutsche Bank Championship at TPC Boston features wide fairways and scoring is historically high, although last year not quite as high as in recent years. In 2015, the course was the 19 toughest among the 52 played on the PGA Tour. It's an original Arnold Palmer design, perhaps why going wild off the tee isn't especially penal. There are three par-5s, and two of them, Nos. 2 and 18, are under 550 yards, reachable by just about the entire field. There were 18 eagles and more than 230 birdies on those two holes alone last year, allowing for some wild swings on the finishing hole. There was a reachable par-4, the 298-yard 4th, but that has been extended to top out at 353, the one significant course adjustment since last year. With DraftKings in mind, the Deutsche Bank is the easiest cut to make all season, with 99 golfers vying for the 70-plus-ties spots. So, gamers, if you don't go 6-for-6, you'll be heading uphill all weekend. Interestingly, only four golfers in the past three years have finished top-10 in the Barclays and Deutsche Bank: Graham DaLaet in 2013, Jason Day in 2014 and Henrik Stenson and Daniel Summerhays last year. Stenson remains in the field after withdrawing last week with a knee injury. There really can be no justification in picking him, since it's not known whether he can play four rounds. Weather-wise for the four days -- Friday to the Monday/Labor Day finish -- everything looks great, with hardly any rain or significant wind in the forecast. That should remove early/late tee-time decisions from the equation.
Key Stats to Winning at TPC Boston
• Driving accuracy (more than distance)
• Greens in regulation
• Scrambling
• One-putt percentage (putts per GIR)
Past Champions
2015 - Rickie Fowler
2014 - Chris Kirk
2013 - Henrik Stenson
2012 - Rory McIlroy
2011 - Webb Simpson
2010 - Charley Hoffman
2009 - Steve Stricker
2008 - Vijay Singh
2007 - Phil Mickelson
2006 - Tiger Woods
Champion's Profile:
The course's reputation is that it favors long hitters, but the stats don't necessarily support that. Maybe golfers who hit it 290+plus off the tee have an edge, but about half the PGA Tour hits it that far. In fact, the past three winners -- Rickie Fowler, Chris Kirk and Henrik Stenson -- were far back in driving distance. Heck, Fowler was even far back in accuracy, but that was a bit of an outlier, as he was otherworldly thereafter: sixth in greens in regulation, fourth in proximity to the hole, first in scrambling and second in strokes gained: putting. Kirk (fourth) and Stenson (T6) also proved to be outstanding scramblers, as were Rory McIlroy in 2012 (second) and Webb Simpson in 2011 (third). That's five straight winners in the top-6 in scrambling. Strong play around the green normally heals all wounds, and it appears especially so at TPC Boston.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Jason Day - $12,500 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 13-2)
Dustin Johnson - $12,100 (10-1)
Adam Scott - $10,400 (20-1)
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Sergio Garcia - $9,500 (30-1)
Louis Oosthuizen - $9,100 (40-1)
Emiliano Grillo - $9,000 (40-1)
Jim Furyk - $8,800 (40-1)
Billy Horschel - $8,500 (50-1)
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Justin Thomas - $7,600 (60-1)
Russell Knox - $7,500 (60-1)
Charley Hoffman - $7,300 (80-1)
Bill Haas - $6,700 (100-1)
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Harris English - $6,600 (125-1)
Chris Kirk - $6,400 (150-1)
Webb Simpson - $6,100 (100-1)
Daniel Summerhays - $6,000 (150-1)
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Cash Game Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Jason Day - $12,500
Sergio Garcia - $9,500
Emiliano Grillo - $9,000
Charley Hoffman - $7,300
Webb Simpson - $6,100
Hudson Swafford - $5,500
Day has been in the mix at TBC Boston every year this decade, and has been on the fringe of contention -- if not in contention -- in most of his starts this season. He's the top putter statistically, plus he's 27th in scrambling. It's a high price to pay -- the highest in the field -- but I expect to see Day on the leaderboard come Sunday. Garcia is back after breaking since the Olympics, where he tied for eighth. He's been on form virtually summer, with twin T5s in the U.S. Open and Open Championship. Garcia was T4 in his most recent Deutsche Bank start, in 2013, and he's seventh on tour in GIR. Grillo will be a popular DK play, and why not? He was runner-up last week on a course he had never played before, just like TPC Boston. With three $9,000-plus picks, there's not much cash left. Hoffman was third at Boston last year, won it in 2010 and was T13 last week, getting back on form with his best showing since May. Simpson won the tournament in 2011, but his putting woes (176th on tour in strokes gained: putting) seem to eliminate a repeat performance. But he's among the best in the game tee-to-green, and $6,100 is a lovely price to pay for that. He could be highly owned. So could Hudson Swafford, who joins a bunch of others at the lowest price in the field. Swafford is the best of that bunch. He's made 11 straight cuts going back to May.
Higher-Risk Tournament Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Adam Scott - $10,400
Louis Oosthuizen - $9,100
Jim Furyk - $8,800
Billy Horschel - $8,500
Bill Haas - $6,700
Chris Kirk - $6,400
I couldn't quite pull the trigger on Scott last week, and it cost me. He tied for fourth, his best showing since back-to-back wins in February/March. He has done well at TPC Boston, with consecutive top-8s from 2010 to '12. Putting is still an issue, but Scott is first on tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green and fifth in eagles (so he has to be making some putts). Likewise, Oosthuizen has good course history, tying for 12th last year, his lone appearance since finishing second in 2012. He's coming off three straight top-25s, including at the Barclays. Furyk, still battling to make it inside the top 70 to get to the BMW next week, not to mention still vying for the Ryder Cup team, has four top-10s at TPC Boston dating to 2008, including T4 last year. He's ninth on tour in proximity to the hole, a stat that just missed our list of four key stats for this week. Horschel loves this time of year, was second here two years ago and was T13 last week. He 51st in FedEx Cup points, but he's 21st on tour in strokes gained: total. Haas at $6,700? Yes, please! He made seven of his last eight cuts at Boston, and posted a T9 two years ago. Haas is 12th on tour in scrambling. Kirk is a former champion, in 2014, part of a run of five straight top-35s at TPC Boston. At 75th, he needs a good showing to get into the BMW. Kirk is 22nd on tour in scrambling.
