This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
HOUSTON OPEN
Purse: $7M
Winner's Share: $1.26M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Humble, Texas
Course: Golf Club of Houston (Tournament Course)
Yardage: 7,441
Par: 72
2017 champion: Russell Henley
Tournament Preview
As we all know, this course is the perfect tuneup for the Masters -- minimal rough, run-offs and collection areas around the greens, water hazards and stimp meters pushing 13. They do that by design of course and, get this, it's even within six yards of Augusta National's 7,435 distance. But this is the last year the Houston tour stop will be played the week before Augusta. In fact, the future of one of the elder statesmen on the PGA Tour calendar, first played in 1946, is uncertain. The tournament lost Shell as the title sponsor last year after a remarkable 26-year run and there is still no replacement. The 2018-19 schedule is months away from being announced, but bits and pieces have leaked out, and it's been reported that the Valero Texas Open will move up a few weeks to snare this prime spot. This will be the 73rd Houston Open, and it may be the last Houston Open.
On top of that, more cheery news: The 144-man field is the weakest in years. Sixteen golfers who will play in the Masters are here, but just seven of the top-25 in the OWGR are on hand, headed by Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler and Phil Mickelson. More than a quarter of the field is made up of recent Web.com Tour grads -- close to 40 out of the 50 of them -- so making your long-shot picks should be a thrill ride. No Houston champion has doubled up with a Masters win. Four of the past five champs, including Russell Henley last year, needed a victory just to get into Augusta. The fact that the other three were Jim Herman, Matt Jones and D.A. Points tells us all we need to know that the Golf Club of Houston is far from Augusta on the difficulty meter. It also tells us that some of the bigger names maybe are looking to prepare for next week even at the expense of winning this week.
The track was middle-of-the-road tough last year, ranking 24th of 50 courses. The hardest hole traditionally is the 18th, a 488-yard brute with water all along the left and bunkers on the right. There were only 23 total birdies there in last year's tourney, while bogey or worse was the score more than 25 percent of the time. As for the course overall, we'll take a closer look in the Champion's Profile below.
Weather-wise, thunderstorms are in the forecast for Wednesday, and that should benefit the longer hitters. it appears most of the rain should be gone by Thursday, so there's no need consider tee times when constructing your lineup. Otherwise, temperatures will be warm and you know the Texas wind will be blowing.
Key Stats to Winning at Golf Club of Houston
Note - The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key stats" follow in importance.
• Putting average/strokes gained: putting
• Greens in regulation/strokes gained: approach
• Strokes gained: off the tee
• Scrambling/strokes gained: around the green
Past Champions
2017 – Russell Henley
2016 - Jim Herman
2015 – J.B. Holmes
2014 – Matt Jones
2013 – D.A. Points
2012 – Hunter Mahan
2011 – Phil Mickelson
2010 – Anthony Kim
2009 – Paul Casey
2008 – Johnson Wagner
Champion's Profile
If you don't putt well here, you won't win. Two of the past four winners, Russell Henley and Matt Jones, finished the week ranked first in the field in strokes gained: putting, and only one of the past 10 champs has been outside the top-11. The last six winners have all been top-10 in greens in regulation. Most of the recent winners have not been long off the tee, and have not been especially accurate, either -- you don't have to be when you're putting that well. Not to confuse, but we do list strokes gained: off the tee in the key stats above because, short of lights-out putting, good tee balls will matter this week. That's especially true on the closing six holes, with two par-5s of around 600 yards and two par-4s nearing 500.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Justin Rose - $11,400 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 10-1)
Rose hasn't played Houston much over the years, and he's never had a top-10. But it's hard to turn away when a golfer has been a worldwide top-10 machine for the better part of six months now. Rose's last two starts have been top-5s at the Valspar and Bay Hill. He's ranked fifth on Tour in strokes gained: putting and 17th in strokes gained: off the tee.
Jordan Spieth - $11,100 (10-1)
It's come to this for the struggling Spieth: He's the highest-ranked golfer in the field but third on the DraftKings board. He has been playing very poorly for a while now -- with the footnote that he's been playing very poorly for him. Spieth's putting has been abysmal, but the rest of his game has been solid, as he is ranked in the top 25 in numerous strokes-gained categories, including off the tee, approach, around the green and tee to green, in which he's 9th. All that, plus a weak field, plus an urgency a week before The Masters makes us think Spieth will put together a high finish. Plus, he's $400 cheaper than someone who is struggling even more than him, Rickie Fowler.
Phil Mickelson - $10,200 (12-1)
Mickelson of course is amid his best stretch in years. He's strung together four straight stroke-play top-6s, culminating with a win earlier this month at the WGC-Mexico. The 2001 Houston champ is ranked fourth on Tour in strokes gained: approach and second in strokes gained: putting. That is some seriously good play.
Tier 2 Values
Luke List - $9,600 (25-1)
Last year, List cost $7,300 here, and delivered for his backers big-time with a tie for third. His current price resulted in a bit of sticker shot, but there's no denying List has been outstanding all season. Before last week's Match Play, List had finished T26 or better in all six of his 2018 starts. He ranks 11th on Tour in strokes gained: off the tee.
Daniel Berger - $9,400 (25-1)
Berger has four top-15s already in 2018, but he hasn't made the real big dent to truly contend for a title. He's done that in Houston, though, with top-5s each of the past two years. Berger ranks 29th on Tour in strokes gained: putting.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello - $9,300 (30-1)
The Spaniard is now a staple on the PGA Tour, and is one of the seven golfers in the field ranked in the OWGR's top-25 (he's 22nd). In seven stroke-play events in 2017-18, Cabrera-Bello finished top-30 every time. He ranks second on Tour in strokes gained: approach and 45th in strokes gained: putting. He was T4 two years ago at Houston.
Charles Howell III - $8,900 (40-1)
One of the annual backstories to the Houston Open is this Augusta native's last-ditch bid to qualify for the Masters. Howell often makes a good run for it, with top-10s three of the past five years. He's playing well coming in now, too, with seven top-25s in 13 starts this season. Howell is ranked 13th on Tour in strokes gained: tee to green, 24th in approach and 42nd off the tee. That adds up to another good chance for a high finish, but being ranked 175th in strokes gained: putting will be what keeps him in front of his TV next week.
Byeong-Hun An - $8,700 (40-1)
An is certainly a young golfer on the rise, with top-25s in three of his four PGA Tour starts in 2018, including T14 at Bay Hill last time out. He ranks ninth on Tour in strokes gained: off the tee and 17th in approach, while his putting is slowly improving (86th in SG putting). This will be An's Houston debut.
Tier 3 Values
Seungsu Han - $7,700 (100-1)
Han was introduced to many American golf observers only last week, when he tied for fifth in the opposite-field event in the Dominican. Still, for a golfer based in Asia, that weak field was a step up in class. Even a weaker-than-usual Houston field will be another step up for the Korean. At some point, the tougher fields should dent his rise, which has landed him at 82nd in the OWGR. But we don't expect it to happen this week.
Corey Connors - $7,600 (100-1)
Boy, Connors has endured a couple of rough Sundays this month. But he's also enjoyed some great Thursdays-Saturdays. Connors plummeted down the leaderboard at the Valspar and did it again the other day in the Dominican Republic. The good thing he is, he still cashed in the top-16 both times. The Web.com grad has missed only one cut in 12 starts. Connors ranks 22nd on Tour in strokes gained: off the tee and 23rd in greens in regulation.
Kelly Kraft - $7,400 (80-1)
Kraft has some absolutely horrid stats for 2017-18. But he's found some form in his past three starts, including a solo-third last week at the Corales tournament. Kraft was also T8 in the far-tougher Honda last month. His statistical bright spot has been strokes gained: putting, ranking 43rd.
Jamie Lovemark - $7,300 (50-1)
Lovemark really looks undervalued, and we see him closer to an $8,000 golfer in this watered-down field. So do the oddsmakers, with that 50-1 tag. But combine a spotty course history -- a T18 two years ago is Lovemark's only decent showing in five tries -- with a disastrous stretch earlier in the season, and bad memories tend to linger. Lovemark, however, has made five straight cuts, including a T7 at the Honda. He's ranked around 50th on Tour in a few strokes-gained categories, including approach, around and putting.
Long-Shot Values
Martin Kaymer - $7,100 (100-1)
Kaymer has not played since withdrawing from the Honda with a wrist injury. But he tweeted that he's better, and wants a tuneup before the Masters. We don't what to expect from the 87th-ranked German. But at this price, there is more upside than downside. Kaymer had a couple of decent tournaments at the start of the year, with top-30s in strong fields in Abu Dhabi and Dubai.
James Hahn - $7,100 (80-1)
Hahn is 11-for-11 in cuts this season, with five cashes inside the top-30. He's made the cut in three of his four visits to Houston, too. Hahn is ranked 14th in strokes gained: approach and 30th in tee to green.
Beau Hossler - $6,900 (150-1)
The California native has struggled since the end of the West Coast swing, but Hossler also has ties to Texas. He was a star for the Longhorns, which landed him a sponsors exemption into last year's field. Hossler acquitted himself nicely with a tie for 39th. He ranks 42nd on Tour in strokes gained: putting and is 71st in greens in regulation.
Abraham Ancer - $6,800 (Field, 9-1)
The Texas native has been on a nice run the past two months, making five of his past six cuts with three top-20s. Ancer is ranked 24th on Tour in scrambling heading into his Houston debut.
