This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
THE AMERICAN EXPRESS
Purse: $8M
Winner's Share: $1.44M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: La Quinta, Calif.
Courses: Stadium Course at PGA West, plus the Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta
Yardage: 7,187
Par: 72
2022 champion: Hudson Swafford
Tournament Preview
When the PGA Tour announced its radically-altered landscape for 2023 an beyond, it was clear there would be a new world order of haves and have-nots. That wasn't just for the golfers but also the tournaments. The top guys were now mandated to play in the top tournaments, leaving the other tournaments to hope for, well, anything.
But now three tournaments into the new year, two of which were not the so-called designated events, it's been a landscape solely of haves. The American Express, which has had many tournament names, many sponsors, many no-name winners and many lean years ever since entertainer Bob Hope passed away two decades ago, finds itself with a flat-out loaded field this time around.
Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, 2018 champion Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele and Will Zalatoris give the Amex five of the top seven golfers in the world. When you add on Tony Finau, Sam Burns, Tom Kim, Cameron Young and Sungjae Im, we're talking 10 of the top 20 OWGR highlighting the first maxed out field of 156 this year. For good measure, there's also Rickie Fowler, Jason Day, Justin Rose, Sahith Theegala and Brian Harman, giving the Amex one of its strongest fields in years.
Remember, the Amex comes with a 54-hole cut after three days of pro-am play, so this might be a good week to consider a little added risk. If you don't get 6-for-6, you're losing only 18 holes, and that might not kill your lineup. The top 65 players and ties will play on Sunday.
For decades, this tournament was one of the signature stops on the PGA Tour calendar, largely because of Hope, who pulled in a star-studded lineup of show business types to frolick in the warm California desert in the dead of winter, which in turn brought out the biggest names in golf. Fans back east in the shivering cold ate it up -- and back then it was 90 holes across five rounds. Eventually, as Hope and the show business types aged, the tournament lost its luster, and that was accelerated when Hope passed away in 2003 at age 100. His name was removed from the title eight years later.
The tournament drifted from sponsor to sponsor: Chrysler, Humana, CareerBuilder, Workday and even a few years with no title sponsor. American Express came on board three years ago and, while the tournament is far from its heyday, things have stabilized.
The two PGA West tracks – the Stadium Course and the Nicklaus Tournament Course (par-72, 7,147 yards) – were introduced in 2016 to go along with venerable La Quinta (par-72, 7,060). All of them are pushovers for today's golfers, though the Stadium is the, um, toughest. The golfers will rotate on the three courses before the 54-hole cut, and then the 1986 Pete Dye-designed Stadium track will go it solo on Sunday.
We'll focus on the Stadium here, since it will be used for two rounds. It is short, so driver isn't always needed. With water on seven holes and more than 90 bunkers, there is some danger. And the bermudagrass greens are some of the smallest the golfers will see all year, averaging only 5,000 square feet. But they are simple and pretty slow. Three of the four par-5s are 560 yards or under. This is annually one of the biggest birdie-fests. The past two years, Si Woo Kim (2021) and Hudson Swafford (2022) won at 23-under. In 2020, Andrew Landry won at 26-under.
Interestingly, bermuda is the grass of choice on both PGA West courses, but poa is on La Quinta. That can't be easy for the golfers to switch mid-tournament. La Quinta's greens are even smaller than the Stadium track's, averaged about 4,800 square feet. Nicklaus is the biggest at 7,000 square feet.
Twelve of the past 13 winners played at least one of the two Hawaii stops before coming here, including Swafford, who will not be back to defend, having foresaken the PGA Tour for LIV Golf. There's something to be said for getting in some tournament rounds after the long winter break, even only two with a missed cut. Since the tournament's inception in 1960, there have been only six non-American winners.
As for the weather, the series of devasting California storms have finally subsided. There is a small chance of rain on Thursday but otherwise there will be dry conditions and light winds, with high temperatures staying in the 60s.
Key Stats to Winning at PGA West
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Ball Striking/Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Birdie-or-Better Percentage/Par-5 Scoring
Past Champions
2022 - Hudson Swafford
2021 - Si Woo Kim
2020 - Andrew Landry
2019 - Adam Long
2018 - Jon Rahm
2017 - Hudson Swafford
2016 - Jason Dufner
2015 - Bill Haas
2014 - Patrick Reed
2013 - Brian Gay
Champion's Profile
There's little mystery this week. Getting on the green in short order will provide plenty of birdie of opportunities on some of the smallest and easiest greens the golfers will see all year. Last year, Swafford made 29 birdies with one eagle. Two years ago, Kim had 23 and one eagle. Thtree years ago, Landry made a whopping 31 birdies. Swafford ranked fourth in Strokes Gained: Approach and second in SG: Putting, basically the formula for everyone on the first page of the leaderboard. The last three years, the winners has ranked top-10 in both strokes-gained categories. Last year, the only one among the leaders to really pund the ball off the tee was Will Zalatoris, averaging 317 yards off the tee (that was good only for T6 in the field). But he lost a lot of ground on the greens or he'd have been closer than four back. Twelve of the past 13 winners played at least one of the two Hawaii stops before coming here. The over/under on the winning score at golfodds.com is 263.5, which is a big number -- 24.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Jon Rahm - $10,800 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +650)
Rahm is officially No. 4 in the world but no one is playing better. He's coming off a win at Kapalua, his third in his past five starts. In his last nine starts, Rahm has finished outside the top eight only once. That is quite a heater for the 2018 Amex champ.
Patrick Cantlay - $10,100 (+1100)
Cantlay ended a nearly three-month break when he teed it up at the Tournament of Champions two weeks ago. That's all he needs to get in form for one of his better stops on Tour. Cantlay has finished top-10 the past three years here, including runner-up to Si Woo Kim two years ago.
Will Zalatoris - $9,600 (+2000)
Zalatoris showed at Kapalua that his back is fine -- for now. This is a great track for his skill set, as he proved last year when he tied for sixth. He excelled tee to green but just couldn't make any putts. Make just a few, and his result could've been far better.
Tom Kim - $9,500 (+2500)
Waialae was not a good fit for Kim last week. The Amex is. Kim is one of the most accurate iron players, and this week is all about greens in regulation -- he's ranked sixth on Tour.
Tier 2 Values
Brian Harman - $9,300 (+3500)
Harman comes back every year, plays great almost every year and thus is priced accordingly. He was third last year and eighth the year before. Harman played both ends of the Hawaii Swing and, while he didn't have great finishes, just getting the reps will give him an edge over much of the field.
Andrew Putnam - $8,700 (+5000)
Putnam had a hot streak going in the fall and the winter break did nothing to cool him off. He tied for third at Waialae. Now he heads to a tournament where he's finished in the top-25 four times in the past five years, with a T14 last year. The short-hitting Putnam need not worry about his distance limitations this week. He'll rely on his good iron play and his excellent putting.
Sahith Theegala - $8,600 (+6000)
Theegala has become a very steady and a very good player in a very short period of time. He has made 22 of his past 24 cuts, and had a great fall season with three finishes in the top-6, one of them a runner-up at the RSM Classic. His stats don't really scream out at you, but ultimately it's what's on the leaderboard. Theegala tied for 33rd in his Amex debut last year.
Tom Hoge - $8,400 (+3500)
Let's throw last week's off-week aside. Hoge entered the week 10th on Tour in greens in regulation and fell all the way to 20th in tying for 41st. (Maybe he was distraught over his beloved TCU getting bludgeoned by George in the championship game, or simply flying Hawaii to LA and back again just to see the game was enough to screw up his golf week). Hoge already has three top-10s and two more top-15s this season. He was runner-up to Hudson Swafford here last year and was sixth in 2020.
Tier 3 Values
Rickie Fowler - $7,800 (+9000)
Sure, yeah, okay, why not? This will be Fowler's 2023 debut, and he'll be one of the most watched golfers at La Quinta. He had a pair of top-6s in four fall starts, fueling optimism that his return to swing coach Butch Harmon and his split from longtime caddie Joe Skovron will rejuventate his lagging career. Fowler sits fourth on Tour in greens in regulation and has a good history at the Amex. He missed the cut last year after tying for 21st in 2021 and 10th the year before.
Thomas Detry - $7,600 (+13000)
Detry didn't play in either of the Hawaii events but he was active very late into December with a DP World Tour start in South Africa. He had a very good fall season with four top-15s, including a runner-up in Bermuda. He didn't miss a cut. Detry isn't the best GIR guy but is pretty good in all other facets, helping him rank 17th on Tour in birdie average.
Alex Smalley - $7,500 (+11000)
Smalley missed the cut last week after the long layoff. He had a great fall season with four top-25s. His game is well-rounded, not excelling in any one area but also with no real weakness. He's just outside the top-50 in greens in regulation and just inside in SG: Putting. Smalley played the Amex for the first time a year ago and tied for 25th.
Ben Taylor - $7,000 (+13000)
The 30-year-old Englishman by way of LSU closed the fall season with a tie for third and a tie for 21st, then picked up where he left off with a top-5 at the Sony. That has moved Taylor within range of the top-100 in the world -- he's currently at a career-best 112th. The Korn Ferry grad is ranked top-30 in all these categories: SG: Off-the-Tee, greens in regulation, SG: Putting and SG: Tee-to-Green. That's pretty impressive.
Long-Shot Values
Kevin Yu - $6,900 (+20000)
Yu is a great GIR guy but not a good putter -- though he did rank 22nd in the field in putting last week at Waialae en route to his third top-25 in seven starts this season (T21). He's only 24 and a rookie on Tour, but the Arizona State alum is already showing he belongs and can compete. Yu is ranked in the top-40 on Tour in birdie average.
Davis Thompson - $6,900 (+30000)
The 23-year-old Alabaman who was a Georgia Bulldog has made five of six cuts this season, including last week at the Sony and a pair of top-12s in the fall. Thompson is ranked 17th on Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee and 31st in SG: Tee-to-Green -- both very impressive numbers. What's the catch? The catch is his putting.
Harry Hall - $6,600 (+18000)
The 25-year-old Englishman is proving to be one of the top putters in this, his rookie season Tour. Hall is ranked third in SG: Putting. He's made five of his past six cuts, including a T28 at the Sony last week. It's interesting to see Hall is only 180-1 at the DraftKings Sportsbook -- shorter odds than many guys with higher DK prices. Maybe they think that putter can get hot, too.
Tyson Alexander - $6,400 (+40000)
It's hard to find good iron players down here (they're usually down here because they're not good iron players). But Alexander is an interesting option. He's made five straight cuts, including a tie for 32nd last week at Waialae and a solo second at Houston. He has a good short game, ranking top-25 on Tour in SG: Around-the-Green and 50th in SG: Putting.
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