This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP
Purse: $5.9M
Winner's Share: $1,062,000
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the winner
Location: Palm Harbor, Fla.
Course: Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club (Copperhead Course)
Yardage: 7,340
Par: 71
Tournament Preview
The Valspar Championship represents a natural break for many of the top PGA Tour players who have played the last couple weeks and plan to play Arnold Palmer's Invitational at Bay Hill next week in preparation for the Masters, which beckons just a month out. That said, the Valspar field is stronger than last year, showcasing 11 of the top 30 in the world rankings. The Innisbrook Copperhead course is nothing to scoff at, either, consisting of tree-lined fairways and rolling terrain with a few strategic ponds that can easily wreck a round (just ask John Daly about carding a 12 on the 16th hole last year). The course features all five par-3s playing 195 yards or longer and just one par-4 less than 420 yards. The venomous "Snake Pit" is among the toughest finishing stretches on the PGA Tour; the par-4 16th hole is a brute dogleg right with water hugging the right side, followed by the long par-3 17th with a tricky green complex. The narrow par-4 18th has deep bunkers and a blind uphill approach to cap a daunting test that will surely bite many hopefuls down the stretch Sunday.
Key Stats to Winning at Innisbrook
• Driving Accuracy
• GIR% from 175-plus yards away
• Scrambling
Last Decade of Valspar Championship Winners
2014 – John Senden
2013 – Kevin Streelman
2012 – Luke Donald
2011 – Gary Woodland
2010 – Jim Furyk
2009 – Retief Goosen
2008 – Sean O'Hair
2007 – Mark Calcavecchia
2006 – K.J. Choi
2005 – Carl Pettersson
The list of Innisbrook champions range from great ballstrikers, who hit plenty of fairways and greens, to exceptional short-game artists, who scrambled their way to victory with elite short games. Outside of the long-hitting Gary Woodland, the past decade of victors have essentially been very accurate players with average length, exceptional mid-iron play and scrambling prowess. By no means does this mean long-hitters are doomed, as length is always an advantage, but at Innisbrook precision is key and low scores are tough to find.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Jordan Spieth - $12,200 (odds: 14/1)
Jim Furyk - $10,900 (20/1)
Patrick Reed - $10,200 (22/1)
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Luke Donald - $9,900 (28/1)
Ryan Moore - $9,400 (Odds: 33/1)
Harris English - $9,100 (33/1)
Daniel Berger - $8,400 (40/1)
Kevin Na - $8,300 (45/1)
Russel Knox - $7,900 (50/1)
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Sang-Moon Bae - $7,500 (Odds: 55/1)
Justin Thomas - $7,000 (66/1)
Kevin Streelman - $6,900 (80/1)
Charles Howell III - $6,800 (66/1)
Shawn Stefani - $6,300 (80/1)
Jason Kokrak - $6,200 (100/1)
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Scott Langley - $5,900 (125/1)
Alex Prugh - $5,700 (Odds: 125/1)
Alex Cejka - $5,600 (125/1)
Zac Blair - $5,300 (150/1)
Andrew Svoboda - $4,300 (200/1)
WHO I'M ROLLING WITH THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Cash Game Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Jim Furyk - $10,900
Luke Donald - $9,900
Kevin Na - $8,300
Sang-Moon Bae - $7,500
Kevin Streelman - $6,900
Scott Langley - $5,900
While Adam Scott and Henrik Stenson are elite talents, Furyk and Donald hold phenomenal course histories at Innisbrook, including a win for each in the last five years. Streelman is the 2013 champ at a value price of $6,900 and has another top-10 at the event. Kevin Na, Sang-Moon Bae and Scott Langley have all posted top-3 finishes to round out a history-rich crew that is about as safe as it gets and likely to net three or more top-10 finishes this week.
Higher-Risk Tournament Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Jordan Spieth - $12,200
Patrick Reed - $10,200
Daniel Berger - $8,400
Brendon Todd - $8,100
Charles Howell III - $6,800
Andrew Svoboda - $4,300
Spieth is a safe headliner with two top-20s in as many starts at Innisbrook and a solid start to the 2014-15 season, but the safety net ends there. Reed seems like a lock with a great recent trend, but missed the cut in his only start at Innisbrook last year and tends to either contend or miss the cut with little predictability. Berger is having a breakout season with six top-25s, including a playoff loss at the Honda Classic in his last start, but the response to a heartbreaking playoff loss can vary widely among players. Howell is a ballstriking fiend who will hit plenty of greens but will need to scramble and putt better than usual to post a top finish. Todd is a short-game wizard with the mold to play well here, though his best finish is a T44. Finally, Svoboda is a hunch pick who fits the mold of many former Innisbrook champions (average distance, good accuracy, solid short game) and will serve as a complete wild card in his first pass through the Snake Pit.
