This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Courses
- Pebble Beach Golf Links (6,972 yards, par 72)
- Spyglass Hill Golf Course (7,041 yards, par 72)
- Monterey Peninsula Country Club Shore Course (6,934 yards, par 71)
Purse: $9,000,000
Winner: $1,620,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
For those of you that aren't a fan of tournaments that use multiple courses, don't worry. This is the last one of the season. There will once again be three courses in the rotation for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. 156 professionals will each be paired with an amateur partner and get one spin around Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill, and Monterey Peninsula before a 54-hole cut is made and the top 60 professionals and top 25 amateur teams play the final round at famed Pebble Beach Golf Links. As is tradition, there will be a number of celebrities teeing it up alongside the professionals, including other sports stars like Pau Gasol, Gareth Bale, Josh Allen, Larry Fitzgerald, Aaron Rodgers, Steve Young and Buster Posey.
Pebble Beach has hosted the Pro-Am since 1947. Say what you want about the length of some of the rounds, but this event is always must-watch television just because of how many iconic shots there are. The tee shot at the par-3 5th, the second shot on the par-5 6th, the tee shot on the par-3 7th, the second shot on the par-4 8th, the tee shot on the par-3 17th, and frankly every shot at 18. They are all visually stunning. Pebble Beach has also hosted the U.S. Open six times, most recently in 2019 when Gary Woodland broke through. Pebble Beach is scheduled to his the U.S. Women's Open for the first time later this year and the men will return for the U.S. Open here in 2027.
Over the last handful of years, this tournament has unfortunately taken a hit in field strength. A lot of the top players have decided to skip this event possibly due to the long rounds of having to play with amateurs, but also this year it now falls in a bad spot in the schedule. Next week at the WM Phoenix Open is the second "designated event" of the season and the first of four such events in a five week span. As long as AT&T continues to hold the title sponsor, which it has since 1986, you can count on Jordan Spieth being in the field. Spieth has a strong history at Pebble Beach with his win in 2017 and a runner-up last year. The 13-time PGA Tour winner was beaten out last year by Tom Hoge, who carded birdies on 16 and 17 to take the lead. Hoge will return to defend his title and has been on a recent hot stretch. Matt Fitzpatrick (No. 10) and Viktor Hovland (No. 11) are the two-highest ranked players in the field this week
Weather is always a factor in this event. There is expected to be some early showers in the second and final rounds, which will only further soften the golf course after an extremely wet January for this area. We are just a few weeks removed from the 14th hole at the Dunes Course at Monterey Peninsula Country Club being almost completely submerged in water. Winds are projected to be rather calm for this area over most of the first three rounds, but it could create some chaos in the final round and lead to a very exciting finish. The scoring has been pretty consistent in this event of late with the winning score coming between 17 and 19-under-par in each of the last seven years. With very receptive greens, however, someone breaking Brandt Snedeker's record of 22-under back in 2015 can't be ruled out. We have also had just one playoff in the last 30 years at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Recent Champions
2022 - Tom Hoge (-19)
2021 - Daniel Berger (-18)
2020 - Nick Taylor (-19)
2019 - Phil Mickelson (-19)
2018 - Ted Potter Jr. (-17)
2017 - Jordan Spieth (-19)
2016 - Vaughn Taylor (-17)
2015 - Brandt Snedeker (-22)
2014 - Jimmy Walker (-11)
2013 - Brandt Snedeker (-19)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach
- GIR Percentage
- Scrambling
- Driving Accuracy
Champion's Profile
We seen a lot of surprise winners over the years at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. One of the biggest reasons for that is all the courses are very short for PGA Tour standards. The much bigger key will be playing from the fairways. While the rough isn't particularly long, you are going to want all the help you can get attacking some of the smallest greens on Tour. With any course with small greens, short game play will also be a factor in deciding things. All three courses this week feature Poa annua greens, which as we talked about last week at Torrey Pines can be a challenge to deal with. Everyone is going to have their fair share of missed short putts because of the unpredictability of the roll, so putting numbers aren't something I'm too concerned about this week. Good iron players with solid scrambling numbers are where your focus should be and why the fact that Tom Hoge and Jordan Spieth finishing 1-2 last year shouldn't have been a surprise at all given their prowess in those two areas throughout their careers.
FanDuel Value Picks
Matt Fitzpatrick ($11,800)
Fitzpatrick is simply the best player in the field this week and his skillset makes him a great option at this event. The 28-year-old led the PGA Tour last season in scrambling and was also seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green. Fitzpatrick is coming off a T7 finish at the Tournament of Champions and is currently top-10 on Tour in both driving accuracy and GIR percentage. The Englishman won't mind these conditions at all and he finished T6 last year in this event.
Tom Hoge ($11,400)
Hoge is coming off his best season on Tour, but his start to the 2022-23 campaign has many thinking he could better it and potentially be in the mix for a Ryder Cup selection in September. Hoge already has five top-15 finishes, including a T3 a few weeks ago at the Tournament of Champions. The TCU product is leading the PGA Tour in SG: Approach at a whopping 1.54 strokes per round. He is also second in proximity to the hole and 17th in birdie average.
Joel Dahmen ($10,600)
Dahmen is making his first start of 2023 and also first start as a father. The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is a great event to come back to, as he has made the cut in all five starts and owns a pair of top-15 finishes in the last three years. Dahmen had an epic run in the fall that saw him close 2022 with three straight top-10s. He ranks top-30 on Tour in a number of key stats such as SG: Approach, SG: Tee-to-Green, driving accuracy, GIR percentage, and scrambling.
Matt Kuchar ($10,400)
Even at 44, Kuchar can still get it done. He is coming off a T7 finish at the Sony Open and has four top-30 finishes in five starts this season. Kuchar has about as much experience around these courses as anyone with 15 career starts in this event. Kuchar is gaining strokes across the board and is 18th in SG: Tee-to-Green. He ranked second in scrambling last season and is currently first in that department in this campaign.
Longer Shots with Value
Russell Knox ($9,400)
Knox has had one of his most consistent seasons to date, making 9-of-10 cuts to start the campaign. Now we head to a trio of courses that fit his game well and he has piled up three top-15s and six top-35s in nine career starts. Knox ranks sixth this season in SG: Approach and fourth in proximity to the hole. His clear lack of distance won't be a factor this week and if the weather becomes an issue that will only help his chances.
Nick Hardy ($9,000)
Hardy has developed into an excellent iron player this season. He ranks fifth in SG: Approach, 25th in GIR percentage, and 18th in proximity to the hole. That's a big part of the reason why he has only missed one cut in eight starts this season. Hardy hasn't even putted well yet, but we've seen him be able to get hot on the greens in the past during a stretch last summer when he piled up three top-15s in a four start span.
Kevin Streelman ($8,800)
This is an event in which Streelman has always performed regardless of form. While he missed the cut last season largely due to a 77 in round two after an opening 67, Streelman racked up six straight finishes of T17 or better in this event prior to that. I think the 44-year-old has another strong finish in him coming off a season in which he ranked top-30 in driving accuracy, proximity to the hole and scrambling.
Ben Taylor ($8,600)
I was on the Englishman last week and was burned by a second-round 80 that prevented him from making the cut, but that was primarily due to a bad putter. I'm willing to go back to the well for a player who has gained on approach in his last six measured events. Taylor is also 28th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 30th in GIR percentage and 36th in scrambling. It's hard to find another player with those kind of numbers across the board down this far.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
As mentioned back at The American Express, missing a cut is going to cost you as much this week due to the cut being after 54 holes. It naturally allows for some aggressiveness when creating lineups. Seamus Power ($11,200) and Maverick McNealy ($11,100) are two players who have good history in this event and I believe will be pretty popular that I am going to fade. Both have been insanely good on the greens this season, but 186th and 134th respectively in SG: Approach is a red flag for me on these courses. Aaron Baddeley ($8,400), Lucas Glover ($7,900), and Ryan Armour ($7,600) are a few deeper shots who all have found success in the past at this event.
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