This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
3M Open
Course: TPC Twin Cities (7,431 yards, par 71)
Purse: $8,300,000
Winner: $1,494,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
With the major season now complete the focus turns to the FedExCup. There are only two more events left before the playoffs are finalized and only the top-70 players will make it. The Olympic Men's Golf Competition in Paris sit right in the middle of the 3M Open and Wyndham Championship, which offer full FedExCup points to the winner. The playoffs begin with the FedEx St. Jude Championship in Memphis before the top-50 advance to the BMW Championship in Colorado and then the top-30 for the TOUR Championship in Atlanta. If you fail to make the FedExCup Playoffs it will add some stress to the fall portion of the schedule as players battle to stay in the top-125 and lock up full status on the PGA Tour for 2025 if they aren't already exempt. Luke List is holding onto the 70th spot in the FedExCup by five points over Lucas Glover, who went on a big run late last season, and Lee Hodges, who is the defending champion of the 3M Open.
This will be the sixth edition of the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. This course previously hosted the 3M Championship on the PGA Tour Champions from 2001-2018. Minnesota native and former major champion Tom Lehman was a consultant in the design by Arnold Palmer back in 2000. The course features plenty of water hazards that can derail a good round in an instant. There are a nice mix of long and short par-4s that add some variability in the scoring, along with some rolling terrain that adds character. The signature hole on the course has to be the reachable par-5 18th over water. Matthew Wolff made eagle on this hole in the inaugural 3M Open in 2019 to beat Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa by one stroke. That was certainly a much more dramatic finish than last year when Lee Hodges beat the rest of the 156-man field by seven strokes posting a tournament-record 24-under-par total.
Most of the big names are taking this week off after many played two straight in Scotland and have the Olympics next week. That leads to 2022 3M Open champion Tony Finau being the clear betting favorite. Billy Horschel and Thriston Lawrence played in the final group on Sunday at Royal Troon and will be getting right back into it in Minnesota. Sam Burns, Sahith Theegala and Akshay Bhatia are all in the field as well to try and continue to move up in the standings. Nick Dunlap also is teeing it up after he became the first player to ever win on the PGA Tour both as an amateur and a professional last week when he produced a great final round to take the Barracuda Championship. Dunlap turned pro right after winning as an amateur in January at the American Express. Luke Clanton is hoping to follow in Dunlap's shoes after going 4-for-4 in made cuts on the PGA Tour this summer, including a pair of top-10 finishes. Neal Shipley bested Clanton for low amateur honors at the U.S. Open and will be playing for the seventh consecutive week after receiving another sponsors invite.
The Midwest has been blasted with storms for the last couple months, but fingers crossed the forecast looks a lot more promising for the 3M Open. We should be dry for the first three days of competition, but may get some isolated storms come through for the final round. Temperatures will be in the upper-80s, but something to watch will be the wind. Thursday should be relatively calm, but the final three rounds are all projected to have gusts up around 25 mph. That will certainly catch the attention of these players on a course with plenty of water lurking. This is usually a place where guys can take it low, but that wind could lead to some more bite. The winning score in the 3M Open's five-year history has been between 15-under and 24-under. I would definitely lean to something more in the mid-teens in Year 6 of this event.
Recent Champions
2023 - Lee Hodges (-24)
2022 - Tony Finau (-17)
2021 - Cameron Champ (-15)
2020 - Michael Thompson (-19)
2019 - Matthew Wolff (-21)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach/GIR Percentage
- SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance
- SG: Putting/Putts per GIR
- Par 4 Scoring Average
Champion's Profile
TPC Twin Cities is a place you will see a wide variety of scores with high GIR percentages and relatively easy greens to putt on, but with water hazards coming into play on almost every hole. Long-hitters have been able to thrive here as long as they are in control of their ball with winners like Wolff, Champ and Finau. Distance is definitely a nice thing to have around this place, especially for the three lengthy par-5's. Ultimately iron play and putting should be the deciding factor, however. It's all about giving yourself as many putts within 20-25 feet and then capitalizing on those opportunities. With so many varying lengths of par-4's around this course Par-4 scoring average would definitely be a nice stat to be good at this week. Long iron play also should factor in to some degree with four long par-3's and a few of those beefy par-4's. Lastly, I think for the most part we can throw scrambling numbers out. There will be less opportunities with such high GIR percentages, and the shots around these greens a pretty straightforward as well.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Tony Finau ($12,000)
Finau to me is easily the best option on the board, and he is very close to the rest of the field in salary which makes this a no-brainer. Sure he missed the cut at Troon, but those conditions are nothing like the players will see this week. Prior to that MC he went T18-T17-T8-T3-T5. The 2022 3M champ has played in every edition of this event with a trio of top-seven's and a worst finish of T28. One of the best iron players on Tour has gained strokes in four straight starts on the greens.
Luke Clanton ($11,500)
Maybe it's crazy to take an amateur at this price, but I'll tell you what the Florida State product certainly doesn't play like one. He's gone T41-T10-T2-T37 in four PGA Tour starts this summer and shown some unbelievable ball-striking prowess. Short sample size sure, but his 1.44 strokes gained per round from tee to green would rank fifth on the PGA Tour this season. Not surprisingly the only area he's struggled in is the short game, but I don't expect that to factor in much at this course.
Taylor Pendrith ($11,000)
This really sets up as a prime spot for Pendrith. He can bomb it off the tee and ranks top-12 in both SG: Putting and putts per GIR. Pendrith is also 24th in par-4 scoring average this season. The Canadian is definitely making his case for the Presidents Cup team in September having collected eight top-25 finishes in his last 11 starts, including his first PGA Tour win at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson in May.
The Middle Tier
Ben Griffin ($9,900)
Griffin loves himself a course where you can be aggressive and make birdies. He finished top-20 last year at TPC Twin Cities and brings even better form in this time with a couple top-five finishes in his last seven starts. Griffin has very respectable rankings in some key areas this week like SG: Approach (61st), GIR percentage (46th), SG: Putting (38th) and par-4 scoring average (9th).
Mac Meissner ($9,600)
It wasn't his best performance Sunday in his first time holding the 54-hole lead, but I'm confident he is able to bounce back and put up another strong showing. Speaking of bouncing back, Meissner is second in that stat this season to Scottie Scheffler. His ball striking is very strong -- he ranks 21st in SG: Tee-to-Green -- and he sits high in a number of the longer approach proximity ranges. Meissner has a great chance to make it four straight top-20s.
Rico Hoey ($9,500)
It doesn't matter that Hoey has missed 10 cuts this season, all that matters is how he is playing right now, and he went T6-T26-T2-T8 the last four weeks. He has always been a pretty solid ball striker but the putting has been a big issue. That is no longer the case having gained on the greens in his last five starts. Hoey has the ideal pop in his bat to attack TPC Twin Cities.
The Long Shots
Pierceson Coody ($8,700)
Coody was one of the favorites to land Rookie of the Year going into the season, but it's taken him some time to figure things out. The talented Texan has been locked in lately, however, making his last six cuts with a pair of top-5 finishes. Coody's putter has been red hot and he is now up to third in SG: Putting on the season. He also ranks 21st in birdie average, third in bounce back and 13th in driving distance.
Joel Dahmen ($8,100)
This is a great price and field for Dahmen to give DFS players a lot of value. He's missed his last two cuts, but prior to that had made eight cuts in a row with a trio of top-30s. The key for Dahmen is finding consistency on the greens, but he is going to give himself a ton of opportunities. The 36-year-old ranks 32nd in SG: Off-the-Tee, 19th in SG: Approach, eighth in GIR percentage and first in proximity.
Brice Garnett ($7,300)
There's certainly some risk here given how the Puerto Rico Open champ has played recently, but if there was ever a spot he was going to bounce back it would be TPC Twin Cities. The 40-year-old has played in all five editions of the 3M Open making the cut every time with a trio of top-26 finishes. Garnett's been terrible on the greens, but he's gained on approach in five of his last seven starts and gained with the putter in four-of-five trips to Blaine.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
The ideal golfer build this week is a great iron player and putter who also has power. Given the talent in the field, that's certainly a tough thing to find. The key is to try to sprinkle in as many of those traits into your lineup as possible. Whether that's an elite iron player like Dahmen who might struggle with the putter, or a below average iron player like Coody who has the putter with some pop off the tee. While there won't be as big of a draw variance as there was at the Open, some of the highest winds of the week are expected to be Friday afternoon after a pretty calm Thursday. It could pay to lean towards the late/early tee times in your lineups. Lastly, I would pay no attention to anyone who struggled at Troon. It's a completely different test at TPC Twin Cities and in a lot of cases I would favor those players who missed the cut rather than those who were in the mix on Sunday like Burns ($11,900), Horschel ($10,900) and Lawrence ($8,900).
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