BMW Championship Betting Preview
50 golfers remain in the FedExCup Playoffs as the PGA Tour heads to Caves Valley Golf Club just outside of Baltimore, Maryland for this week's BMW Championship. One of few events on Tour that rotates venues, Caves Valley hosted once in 2021 which was won by Patrick Cantlay. Sepp Straka (personal) is the only eligible player missing the event, and Scottie Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite at +225. Last year, Keegan Bradley (60-1 odds) edged out Ludvig Aberg, Sam Burns and Adam Scott by one stroke at Castle Pines for his second victory at the event.
After Cantlay went deep to the tune of 27-under in 2021, some changes have been made to the venue including being moved down from a par-72 to a par-70. It will play slightly longer this time around at just over 7,600 yards with narrower fairways, so we're probably looking at something closer to 20-under this time around. I won't dive into the data much since we only have one tournament to draw from, but Cantlay and runner-up Bryson DeChambeau were the top two finishers in SG: Putting four years ago and the top of the leaderboard seemed to favor the longer hitters which lines up with the course length. There is some water in play on the back-nine on a couple tee shots and both of the par-3s. I'll also be looking towards golfers that are good long iron players as we'll see a lot of approach shots from 200+ yards.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:00 PM ET Wednesday.
Top Ball-Strikers
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes off the tee and on approach combined across their last 20 rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler: 2.07
- Kurt Kitayama: 1.78
- Ludvig Aberg: 1.40
- Collin Morikawa: 1.32
- Lucas Glover: 1.30
Focusing on quality ball strikers on long courses is a good starting place and once again it's Scheffler leading the way. He was in contention in Memphis but struggled with the putter Sunday and ultimately finished one shot out of a playoff for his 12 consecutive top-10 finish. Scheffler was a modest T22 here in 2021 but that was before he was the player he is now. Right behind him on the list is Kitayama (45-1), who went from well outside the top-100 in the FedExCup Standings six weeks ago to being currently just seven spots away from qualifying for the Tour Championship (needs a minimum of a 24th place result to get in). He showed his win at the 3M Open wasn't just a flash in the pan, as he posted a top-10 in the first playoff event. He's a darkhorse that I won't be overlooking this week.
BMW Championship Bets: Outright Picks
Xander Schauffele (18-1)
Schauffele is gaining 1.19 strokes on approach per round over the last month which has helped lead to a pair of top-10s and shows that he's starting to show signs of his 2024 form. He's won in the playoffs before and had top-5s in all three events last year.
J.J. Spaun (28-1)
Spaun is in strong form coming off a playoff loss in Memphis on Sunday, marking the fifth time this year that he's been in serious contention to win a tournament late in the final round. Amazingly, he did it despite losing strokes on the greens. Great odds for the smallest field of the season thus far.
Nick Taylor (80-1)
Taylor isn't known for his consistency, but when he's on, he contends to win which he's done in three consecutive years. Outside of being a short hitter, he does everything else really well and has five top-25s across his last seven starts.
BMW Championship Bets: Placement Wagers
Bud Cauley
Top-10 Finish: 5-1
At 46th in the FedExCup Standings, Cauley likely needs a top-10 to make it into East Lake. He has four of them this year and avoided an over-par round at the difficult TPC Southwind. Cauley is starting to look like the player we saw when he was healthy several years ago.
Rickie Fowler
Top-5 Finish: 7-1
Fowler continues to trend in a positive direction this summer and his result in Memphis last week (T6) was his best of the season. He gained over two strokes per round with his ball striking for the first time all year.
Sam Stevens
Top-5 Finish: 12-1
These are generous odds given the small field for a player with three such results this year including a runner-up three weeks ago. Stevens has a great combination of length and accuracy off the tee and combines it with one of the better short games in the field.
BMW Championship Bets: Head-to-Head Matchup
Corey Conners (-120) over Justin Rose
After last week's thrilling playoff win, I wouldn't be surprised if Rose has a letdown as he's now locked into the TOUR Championship and the Ryder Cup. Conners actually gained more strokes on approach than Rose did at TPC Southwind but had a terrible week with his short game. I expect a bounce-back effort this week, and he's been the far more consistent player this year than Rose.
BMW Championship Bets: First Round Leader
Harry Hall (40-1)
Hall ranks second on Tour in birdie or better percentage and third in Round 1 scoring average, which certainly bodes well for this type of bet. He's emerged as the best putter in the world and needs a fast start as he looks to qualify for East Lake and to make a push for a Ryder Cup selection.
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