This article is part of our Golf Barometer series.
Bracket season is here, but with the PGA's bracket not starting until next week at the WGC-Dell Match Play, we will shift our focus to last week's entries in this article and the first Arnold Palmer Invitational sans "The King." Last week's Barometer included Jason Dufner, Graham DeLaet, Lucas Glover, and Wesley Bryan in the "Value Rising" category, and all four would go on to notch top-25 finishes at the Valspar Championship. "Fallers" Patrick Reed and Jim Furyk could not heat up and failed to finish inside the top 35. There are several other players to note heading into this week's event at Bay Hill, and we will dive in deeper below.
VALUE RISING
Rory McIlroy
McIlroy heads into this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational as the favorite after finishing tied for seventh in his previous start at the WGC-Mexico Championship, his first start following a nearly two-month absence due to a rib injury. The third-ranked golfer in the world looks to have avoided any potential issues stemming from a fatigue-ridden offseason, as he struck the ball at an elite level in Mexico, finishing top five among the field in terms of strokes gained: off-the-tee, strokes gained: tee-to-green, and GIR percentage. Given his health and form, McIlroy is on pace to overtake Jason Day at the No. 2 spot in the Official World Golf Ranking, but the Northern Irishman has yet to break through for a top 10 at Bay Hill in two attempts.
Russell Henley
Through nine Tour events this
Bracket season is here, but with the PGA's bracket not starting until next week at the WGC-Dell Match Play, we will shift our focus to last week's entries in this article and the first Arnold Palmer Invitational sans "The King." Last week's Barometer included Jason Dufner, Graham DeLaet, Lucas Glover, and Wesley Bryan in the "Value Rising" category, and all four would go on to notch top-25 finishes at the Valspar Championship. "Fallers" Patrick Reed and Jim Furyk could not heat up and failed to finish inside the top 35. There are several other players to note heading into this week's event at Bay Hill, and we will dive in deeper below.
VALUE RISING
Rory McIlroy
McIlroy heads into this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational as the favorite after finishing tied for seventh in his previous start at the WGC-Mexico Championship, his first start following a nearly two-month absence due to a rib injury. The third-ranked golfer in the world looks to have avoided any potential issues stemming from a fatigue-ridden offseason, as he struck the ball at an elite level in Mexico, finishing top five among the field in terms of strokes gained: off-the-tee, strokes gained: tee-to-green, and GIR percentage. Given his health and form, McIlroy is on pace to overtake Jason Day at the No. 2 spot in the Official World Golf Ranking, but the Northern Irishman has yet to break through for a top 10 at Bay Hill in two attempts.
Russell Henley
Through nine Tour events this season Henley's worst finish -- aside from two missed cuts -- has been a T43 at February's Honda Classic. He finished within the top 25 in the remaining six events and ranks 46th in the FedExCup standings while also approaching the top 100 of the OWGR. Henley's track record in recent years at the Arnold Palmer Invitational is disappointing, with three missed cuts in his past four starts, so although his future value is on the rise thanks to his recent form, this may be the week to fade Henley before deploying him in your lineups at the Shell Houston Open in late March. He has three consecutive top-10s in that event.
Tyrrell Hatton
It was only a couple weeks ago that Hatton first landed in the "Value Rising" portion of the Barometer, but top-10s in his two events at courses he had never even seen before forced another inclusion. Hatton is now up to No. 16 in the OWGR as he heads into yet another venue he has never played. This time, the daunting Bay Hill awaits, but with how well Hatton is playing -- 10 consecutive top-25 finishes worldwide -- you could seemingly put a windmill and a clown's mouth in front of the Englishman and he would find a way to score.
VALUE FALLING
Justin Thomas
Thomas was on fire earlier this season with three wins around the globe followed by a fifth-place finish and hole-in-one at the WGC-Mexico Championship, but he has come back to Earth since, missing three cuts in his last five events. It certainly has been an incredible season for the 23-year-old, who has joined elite company inside the top 10 of the OWGR, but at the moment it feels as if he belongs just outside that mark moving forward. He will have a chance to showcase his worth at the upcoming WGC-Dell Match Play, where he plans to make his next start.
Daniel Berger
Just like Thomas, Berger also missed the cut on three occasions in his past five events, although he did notch a top-20 finish in the other two. It's not that the talent isn't there for Berger; we would just like to see a bit more consistency from a young gun who is battling to keep his name among the likes of fellow stars in the making like Thomas and Jon Rahm. More missed cuts in the near future could turn Berger into a strictly-GPP option in daily formats, so his performance at the WGC-Dell Match Play could be key before he returns to stroke play after that.
Smylie Kaufman
Smylie has put frowns on the faces of fantasy owners this season, missing five of six cuts so far in 2017. Just about the only thing going well for Kaufman this year is his distance off the tee, as his strokes gained: tee-to-green, strokes gained: around-the-green, and strokes gained: putting all rank 175th or worse on Tour. He finished T12 at the 2016 Arnold Palmer Invitational, so expect a focused version of Smylie at Bay Hill as he looks to bounce back this week.
INJURY UPDATE
Jason Day
After having dealt with the flu and double ear infections throughout the past few weeks Day will be returning to the course to defend his title at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He finished just T64 in his last appearance -- at the Genesis Open -- but tied for fifth in his previous start at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Day has not performed at the level you'd expect from the No. 2 golfer in the world in recent months, but at least he will be comfortable at Bay Hill this week having won here before.
Sean O'Hair
A minor neck injury forced O'Hair to withdraw from the Valspar Championship for the second year in a row, but he will be in the field less than a week later at Bay Hill. O'Hair bounced back from his WD at the 2016 Valspar with a T36 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but he failed to break 70 during any of his four rounds. He's usually a popular option is cash-game formats, but could be lower-owned this week coming off the neck issue.
