This article is part of our Golf Barometer series.
The PGA Tour moves from the somber but thrilling Arnold Palmer Invitational to one of the most unpredictable weeks on the calendar at the WGC-Match Play in Austin, TX. First, a review of last week's Barometer: Rory McIlroy, Tyrrell Hatton and Russell Henley comprised the "Risers." McIlroy and Hatton tied for fourth at Bay Hill and Henley was heading for another quality cash until a closing 77 dropped him into a tie for 45th. Justin Thomas and Daniel Berger, two of last week's "Fallers," stopped the bleeding only by taking the week off, but Smylie Kaufman continued his decline with another missed cut. As we put last week in the past, let's look ahead to the Match Play, with the field of 64 beginning play on Wednesday.
VALUE RISING
Rory McIlroy
Yes, McIlroy was rising last week, but he's still rising -- to No. 2 in the world, in fact. McIlroy's T4 at Bay Hill vaulted him past Jason Day in the OWGR, behind only Dustin Johnson. Since returning from a rib injury, all the Northern Irishman has done is record consecutive top-10s, at the WGC-Mexico Championship and now at the API. Looking ahead to this week, another strong showing could be in the cards. McIlroy won the Match Play in 2015, was runner-up in 2012 and lost in the semifinals to Day a year ago.
Marc Leishman
Leishman's win at Bay Hill lifted him to No. 32 in the world, which is quite a climb for someone who began
The PGA Tour moves from the somber but thrilling Arnold Palmer Invitational to one of the most unpredictable weeks on the calendar at the WGC-Match Play in Austin, TX. First, a review of last week's Barometer: Rory McIlroy, Tyrrell Hatton and Russell Henley comprised the "Risers." McIlroy and Hatton tied for fourth at Bay Hill and Henley was heading for another quality cash until a closing 77 dropped him into a tie for 45th. Justin Thomas and Daniel Berger, two of last week's "Fallers," stopped the bleeding only by taking the week off, but Smylie Kaufman continued his decline with another missed cut. As we put last week in the past, let's look ahead to the Match Play, with the field of 64 beginning play on Wednesday.
VALUE RISING
Rory McIlroy
Yes, McIlroy was rising last week, but he's still rising -- to No. 2 in the world, in fact. McIlroy's T4 at Bay Hill vaulted him past Jason Day in the OWGR, behind only Dustin Johnson. Since returning from a rib injury, all the Northern Irishman has done is record consecutive top-10s, at the WGC-Mexico Championship and now at the API. Looking ahead to this week, another strong showing could be in the cards. McIlroy won the Match Play in 2015, was runner-up in 2012 and lost in the semifinals to Day a year ago.
Marc Leishman
Leishman's win at Bay Hill lifted him to No. 32 in the world, which is quite a climb for someone who began the year at No. 56, and brings him within shouting distance of his career-best position of 26th. The Aussie has played the past three Match Plays, with a T9 in 2013 his top cash. He's also had some success at Augusta, where he will play in three weeks thanks to his Bay Hill win. Leishman tied for fourth at the Masters in 2013.
Francesco Molinari
Molinari tied for seventh at Bay Hill, his best result in a series of quality finishes since the New Year (five top-20s in six PGA Tour starts). The surge has lifted the Italian to 29th in the world, his highest ranking in almost five years. He was in the 80s last year and didn't qualify for the Match Play. Molinari never has done well in the format, but as one of the top putters in the field, that could change in a hurry.
VALUE FALLING
Jason Day
Day moves from the injury category last week to the falling category this week. Besides the obvious – dropping from second to third in OWGR – Day's game continues to slide. As the defending Bay Hill champion, he tied for 23rd. That's a good week for most golfers, but not for one of his standing. Day has only 18 rounds of play this season, which might be part of the trouble, but his numbers are alarming: 114th on Tour in greens in regulation, 142nd in strokes gained putting. Last year, he was first in SGP with a putting season for the ages. Day will be defending a title for the second straight event, as he won the 2016 Match Play a week after winning Bay Hill. Maybe this format could jolt Day out of his doldrums.
Scott Piercy
Piercy took a rare week off to skip Bay Hill, but he's already teed it up a dozen times in 2016-17. He continued his strong play from last season into the beginning of this season. But since the calendar flipped to 2017, Piercy doesn't have so much as a top-30. And he missed the cut in his most recent start at the Valspar. Piercy has played the Match Play only three times, with a best of T9 in 2013. Nothing in his recent form suggests anything close to that this time around.
Zach Johnson
With a tie for 66th at Bay Hill, where he had often played well, Johnson fell to 50th in the latest OWGR, his lowest standing since 2007. The very next week that year, Johnson won the Masters to begin a prolonged run of success, peaking at No. 7 in 2014. Johnson almost certainly won't be winning the Masters this year, but of course he'll be at Augusta and also at the Match Play this week. More often than not, Johnson has bowed out of the Match Play early. You'd have to go back to 2006 to find his best showing in the format, third. Johnson is an alarming 190th in the FedEx Cup standings, with only one top-10 all season, at the Sony back in January. Once a U.S. stalwart in international competition, Johnson will be hard-pressed to qualify for this year's Presidents Cup team.
INJURY UPDATE
Danny Willett
Willett isn't really hurt, though he did withdraw right before the start of Bay Hill with an illness. He tweeted that "I've been up all night with terrible sickness." Two days later, Willett tweeted a picture of himself practicing, and then again on Sunday boarding a private jet to Austin. So presumably whatever it was, it's gone. Willett could just as easily find a home in the Value Falling category, as he continues a precipitous decline since his surprise Masters win almost a year ago. The Englishman has had success at the Match Play, finishing third in 2015, but he was playing far better then.
