This article is part of our Golf Draft Kit series.
SLEEPERS
Brooks Koepka
Koepka has the potential to be an all-out star this season on the PGA Tour. Consider this: in just 16 PGA Tour starts as a non-member, he was considered for a Ryder Cup captain's selection. That's how well he played in his limited opportunities on the PGA Tour. He finished the 2013-14 season with a third, two top-10s, six top-25s and more than $1 million in earnings. A player with now both a PGA Tour and European Tour card, Koepka has honed his game by traveling around the world, winning four times on the European Tour's version of the Web.com Tour that subsequently earned a promotion to the European Tour. Sixth on the PGA Tour in driving distance last season at 307 yards and 19th in strokes gained-total, he has the potential to go beyond a sleeper and become a star, and that says a lot in a golf era that features numerous young players with aton of talent.
Post-Fall Update: Koepka had a sensational end to the calendar year, the headline his win at the Turkish Airlines Open on the European Tour that clinched his place in every major and World Golf Championship next year due to his rise in the world rankings. On the PGA Tour, in his only two starts of the fall season, Koepka went T8-T4 at the Frys.com Open and Shriners Open, earning nearly $425K and enough FedEx Cup points for 24th. He's a
SLEEPERS
Brooks Koepka
Koepka has the potential to be an all-out star this season on the PGA Tour. Consider this: in just 16 PGA Tour starts as a non-member, he was considered for a Ryder Cup captain's selection. That's how well he played in his limited opportunities on the PGA Tour. He finished the 2013-14 season with a third, two top-10s, six top-25s and more than $1 million in earnings. A player with now both a PGA Tour and European Tour card, Koepka has honed his game by traveling around the world, winning four times on the European Tour's version of the Web.com Tour that subsequently earned a promotion to the European Tour. Sixth on the PGA Tour in driving distance last season at 307 yards and 19th in strokes gained-total, he has the potential to go beyond a sleeper and become a star, and that says a lot in a golf era that features numerous young players with aton of talent.
Post-Fall Update: Koepka had a sensational end to the calendar year, the headline his win at the Turkish Airlines Open on the European Tour that clinched his place in every major and World Golf Championship next year due to his rise in the world rankings. On the PGA Tour, in his only two starts of the fall season, Koepka went T8-T4 at the Frys.com Open and Shriners Open, earning nearly $425K and enough FedEx Cup points for 24th. He's a star in the making with some saying he could contend or even win a major this year.
Billy Horschel
Yes, he nearly won the Deutsche Bank Championship and did win the BMW Championship, Tour Championship and the FedEx Cup, but remember: a sleeper doesn't have to be a name you don't recognize. Sleepers can also be guys who are due to take the next step, even as known commodities. And if you're looking for someone to make a monumental leap from where he's been his last couple years on tour -- someone who can win but let his emotions get the better of him too often -- Horschel is the man. He ranked first or second in nearly every major strokes-gained category during his sensational playoff run, and if he can continue this mojo across an offseason and into 2015, watch out.
Post-Fall Update: Horschel struggled in his official PGA Tour starts in fall, going MC-T37-T73. However, he tied for eighth at Tiger's unofficial Hero World Challenge in the first week of December, with one thought being that the post-FedEx Cup hangover had finally worn off. However you feel about Horschel's fall play, the truer indication of how we'll perform in 2015 will come in 2015 itself, and not by anything he did in 2014. Accordingly, our expectations of him being a sleeper and making that next step doesn't change.
Hideki Matsuyama
While a lot of people, especially in the Japanese golf press, thought that Ryo Ishikawa would be the next great PGA Tour player from that country, it was one of his fellow countrymen who got into the winner's circle first. The 2013-14 season was a breakout for Matsuyama, who won his first PGA Tour event at the Memorial Tournament in a playoff in June. The winner of the Asian-Pacific Amateur Championship (which earned him a trip to the Masters), the 22-year-old Matsuyama has continually shown poise and confidence in the heat of the moment that should keep him on the world's biggest stage for a long time. He finished the season 28th in FedEx Cup points, sixth in strokes gained-tee to green and 20th in scoring average. If he can improve on his putting (he was 156th in strokes gained-putting), 2014-15 could be an even bigger breakout season for Matsuyama.
Post-Fall Update: Matsuyama played super solid in fall, going T3-T10-T21-T41 in his four official starts. He's 16th in the FedEx Cup point standings, 11th in strokes gained–tee to green and seventh in strokes gained–total. He's poised for a big 2015.
Max Homa and Justin Thomas
We're grouping these rookies together because they come from similar backgrounds. Homa is the former Cal Berkley player won the NCAA championship in 2013. In May, he won the BMW Charity Pro-Am, which put him well on his way to clinching his card, and had seven top-25 finishes in 18 starts. Thomas, meanwhile, who won a team NCAA title at Alabama and almost every college award available. Last season on the Web.com Tour he had a second, a third, a fourth and two fifth-place finishes in the regular season and a playoff victory at the Nationwide Children's Hospital Championship during The Finals, showing how stout his game is. With games that have proven themselves on college's biggest stage and have been successful on the PGA Tour's proving ground, both could have strong rookie seasons on the PGA Tour.
Post-Fall Update: Homa played decently in fall, going T39-MC-MC-T43-T29 in five starts and ranking no better than 60th in any major statistical category, including 96th in strokes gained–total. He enters January 16th on the Reshuffle List. Thomas, meanwhile, went MC-MC-71-T4-T23 in fall and is in 72nd in the FedEx Cup points list. He's 12th on the Reshuffle List, 81st in strokes gained–total and like Homa has some improvements to make for 2015. Overall, though, these two are still sleepers.
Additional Sleepers: Tony Finau, Charl Schwartzel, Hudson Swafford, Harris English, Nick Taylor (who won at the end of last season), Cameron Tringale, Graham DeLaet, Erik Compton, Scott Langley, Carlos Ortiz. Adam Hadwin and Fabian Gomez.
BUSTS
Chris Kirk
Kirk reminds this writer of Bill Haas and Brandt Snedeker -- solid players who have won big events, including FedEx Cup titles, but haven't broken through yet in a major and have been beset by inconsistent play or injury from truly progressing. Kirk had a sensational 2013-14 season -- he won twice, at the McGladrey Classic and at the Deutsche Bank Championship when the aforementioned Horschel tripped up at the end -- but isn't the type who seems to have a consistent enough game to rise on the major stage. He ranked 49th in total driving, 129th in greens in regulation, 75th in proximity to the hole, ninth in scrambling, 22nd in strokes gained-putting and 27th in strokes gained-total. Those are solid numbers -- don't get me wrong -- and there's a reason why he controlled his own destiny to win the FedEx Cup, but if you're looking for someone to win a major next year, he's probably not the one.
Post-Fall Update: Kirk only made two official fall appearances, tying for fourth at the McGladrey Classic and tying for 14th at the World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions event in Shanghai. That's too small of a sample size to move the needle.
Brian Harman
Harman could easily be a sleeper, but he's in the busts category purely because of his inconsistency. Consider this: while he got his first PGA Tour victory this summer at the John Deere Classic, his 32(!) starts (he played in all but 11 full-point PGA Tour events, missing only three regular stops) featured six top-10s, eight top-25s and nine missed cuts. Furthermore, he either seemed to be contending, or way down the leaderboard. Failing to qualify for the first two majors of the season, he tied for 26th at the Open Championship and 40th at the PGA Championship. At 41st in the all-around category, Harman's lack of weeks off and inconsistency likely willl hinder him from being a solid fantasy player in 2014-15.
Post-Fall Update: Harman also made only two fall appearances, tying for 41st athe McGladrey Classic and missing the cut at the OHL Classic at Mayakoba. As with Kirk, that's too small of a sample size.
Michael Thompson
Like a lot of first-time winners on the PGA Tour, Thompson struggled the following season. In 22 starts on the PGA Tour in 2013-14, Thompson only had one top-10 and missed the cut seven times. He also bowed out of the FedEx Cup Playoffs after missing the cut at The Barclays, which included a first-round 78. His stats weren't impressive, either. Most concerning: he was 14th in strokes gained-putting, gaining nearly half a shot per round, but was 140th in strokes gained-tee to green, losing nearly the same amount. In other words, any advantage he had on the field on the greens was basically erased by everything that happened before he arrived there. So why is he a bust versus someone who just had a bad year off a good win at the 2013 Honda Classic? Consider what happened after his victory: he only had three top-10s the rest of the year, and had the majority (eight) of his 11 missed cuts. The trend lines weren't good, and, unfortunately, they likely will continue into this season.
Post-Fall Update: Thompson struggled this fall, going MC-MC-T66-T66 in four starts. His stats line isn't much better, as he was 174th in strokes gained–tee to green, highlighted by a 226th-place ranking in driving accuracy and a 134th-place ranking in greens in regulation. It's those kind of numbers that led to his inconsistency last season.
Blayne Barber
Those who browse all portions of the RotoWire Draft Kit might wonder why we labeled the rookie Barber a player to watch in the Reshuffle List lowdown, but call him a bust here. The reason is simple: acclimation to the PGA Tour takes time. While orientation helps you with the overall lay of the land, it's a lot more complicated than that. Golfers are seeing courses for the first time, trying to figure out where tournament dining is, the range, the locker room, the first tee and the courtesy cars. That's a lot to take in week after week, and playing well under that stress against veterans who know these courses, as well as their home course, is a lot to ask. Things are definitely looking up for Barber overall, but expecting him to play well in his rookie season straight out of the gate is a lot to ask.
Post-Fall Update: Barber impressed in fall, going T39-MC-MC-T9-T9, which included Sunday rounds of 66 and 67, respectively, in his last two starts. He ranks 75th in strokes gained–tee to green and 60th in strokes gained–putting, which puts him 46th in strokes gained–total. Keep that up, and he has a chance at proving us wrong and having a solid year.
Potential Injury-Related Busts: Steve Stricker (herniated disk) and Bud Cauley (torn labrum).
