This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
Although television and golf fans got paid Sunday when Dustin Johnson and John Rahm met in the final of the WGC Match Play, the event as a whole seems to have fallen a bit flat. It certainly didn't help when four big names withdrew before the start of the event, and Jason Day pulled out soon thereafter, but the major problem as I see it, and many I've heard from, is the idea of pool play.
The idea was born to increase the odds of the better players making it to the weekend, and it guaranteed three rounds for every player. It sounded good in theory, and though we've been fortunate to get some quality weekend matchups the last couple years, it's come at the expense of the opening rounds. That, and there's no evidence to support that the "better" players advance given the extra matches, but that's beside the point.
I'll liken this event to March Madness. When is March Madness excitement at its peak? Is it the weekend of the Final Four or is it the first couple days? Most people I know are extremely excited for the opening rounds and couldn't care less about the final few games (unless their bracket hasn't busted). There reason, of course, is in the first two days every single team in the tourney plays a meaningful game. If you have a favorite team in the tourney, it is playing the first two days. If you have a bracket, you are still
Although television and golf fans got paid Sunday when Dustin Johnson and John Rahm met in the final of the WGC Match Play, the event as a whole seems to have fallen a bit flat. It certainly didn't help when four big names withdrew before the start of the event, and Jason Day pulled out soon thereafter, but the major problem as I see it, and many I've heard from, is the idea of pool play.
The idea was born to increase the odds of the better players making it to the weekend, and it guaranteed three rounds for every player. It sounded good in theory, and though we've been fortunate to get some quality weekend matchups the last couple years, it's come at the expense of the opening rounds. That, and there's no evidence to support that the "better" players advance given the extra matches, but that's beside the point.
I'll liken this event to March Madness. When is March Madness excitement at its peak? Is it the weekend of the Final Four or is it the first couple days? Most people I know are extremely excited for the opening rounds and couldn't care less about the final few games (unless their bracket hasn't busted). There reason, of course, is in the first two days every single team in the tourney plays a meaningful game. If you have a favorite team in the tourney, it is playing the first two days. If you have a bracket, you are still alive. If you love constant action, you have roughly 22 hours of ball in two days.
Believe it or not, there used to be a lot of excitement surrounding the first few rounds of Match Play, as well. The main reason -- every match mattered. "Your guy" could be out after one day, and if he won, then you knew he was advancing. All we have now is uncertainty. If your guy wins Wednesday, it means he might move on, or he might not. If your guy wins Wednesday and Thursday, he still might be eliminated. In essence, there's a feeling that the matches on day one and day two just don't matter all that much ... unless they do. You see the problem here.
Unfortunately, as long as the weekend matches continue to produce for the networks, nothing is going to change, which is a shame, because I really used to look forward to start of this event. Now, I'm not even sure when to get excited anymore.
This week: Houston Open - Golf Club of Houston, Humble, Texas
Last Year: Jim Herman shot a final-round 68 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Henrik Stenson.
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER
Phil Mickelson
With Augusta right around the corner, you can be sure that Mickelson is rounding into top form. He sure looked the part last week as he cruised into the weekend at Match Play. Mickelson has never shied away from playing the week prior to the Masters and more often than not, his results here have proved that this event is more than just a tune-up.
Russell Henley
Henley has played well this season, but he's lacking the high-end finishes. That could change this week, though, as his record in Houston is stellar. In four starts at this event, Henley has yet to miss a cut with his last three starts top-10s. His two most recent starts at this event resulted in top-5s.
Henrik Stenson
If you've been fortunate enough to avoid Stenson to this point of the season, congratulations -- for two reasons. The first, of course, is that anyone who has used him has been disappointed. The second is he's due for a strong performance. This looks to be a good spot as Stenson has posted runner-up finishes in two of his last three starts at this event.
Charles Howell III
Howell III is off to a solid start this season, and that should continue this week as his track record in Houston is among his best anywhere. Howell III has finished inside the top 10 here in three of his last four starts and is coming off a good showing last week in Austin where he cracked the top 16.
Jon Rahm
If not for Dustin Johnson playing out of his mind last week, we'd be talking about Rahm and his first WGC victory, but, of course, Rahm didn't pick up that big win. That said, Rahm enters this event as the hottest golfer in the field, and although he is again a first-timer this week, it probably won't matter. The only possible downside to Rahm this week is the fatigue factor.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Lee Westwood
Second week in a row for Westwood on this list. Once upon a time, Westwood was a reliable pick at this event, but the last couple years, he's been anything but reliable at this event. Westwood has missed the cut at this event the last two years, and it's not like his game is getting better.
Scott Stallings
Stallings is off to a good start this season, which has him firmly planted in the sleeper category whenever he starts, but this isn't the week to take a chance on him. Stallings has had no luck at this event in his five starts, making the cut just once on his way to a T45.
D.A. Points
At first glance, it would appear that Points might be a good pick this week. After all, he's coming off a win last week in Puerto Rico and is a past champion at this event. However, Points has really struggled the last four seasons, and it is unlikely he figured everything out in one week. Factor in the hangover after picking up his first win in four years and it might be tough to focus on the task at hand this week.
Hunter Mahan
Mahan is a past champion at this event, which might lead to some increased ownership this week, but I would caution against that as he's not the same guy who won here in 2012. Mahan is showing signs that his game is heading in the right direction, but he's still a ways off before he again becomes a quality selection.
Lucas Glover
Glover is playing well this season. In fact, he's made nine consecutive cuts entering this week. But that streak could be in jeopardy this week as his recent track record at this event is less than stellar. Glover has missed the cut in three of his last six starts here and hasn't cracked the top 50 since 2009.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Last week: Tommy Fleetwood (T39) - $63,500; Season - $3,234,824
This week: Phil Mickelson - Tough call this week as there were three strong options, but I'm going with my gut here as I really like what I saw from Mickelson last week. The other two considerations were Henley and Rahm, but Mickelson has the best combination of current form and track history.
YAHOO PICKS
Points: 1,546
Rank: 22,991
This Week:
Group A: Patrick Reed, Adam Scott
Group B: Phil Mickelson, Charles Howell III, Matt Kuchar, Jordan Spieth
Group C: Jon Rahm, Henrik Stenson
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: Scott Brown - (T17); Streak - 1
This week: Phil Mickelson (Puerto Rico) - Mickelson hasn't missed the cut at this event since 2009 and hasn't finished outside the top 20 since 2010. Unless he's really looking ahead to Augusta, there's no reason to think he'll miss the cut, or even the top 20 this week.
