This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
With the Masters just days away, it's hard to focus on anything else, even with the Houston Open just barely in the rearview mirror, but I'd be remiss if I didn't mention something that seemed strange to me about what happened in Houston last week.
Normally when guys commit to an event, they come to play. That goes for the guys on the lower end and the superstars, which makes what happened at the Houston Open even more confusing. Although there were plenty of big names in the field last week, only Rickie Fowler contended. Jon Rahm finished in the top 10, but was never a factor. Jordan Spieth mysteriously missed the cut as did Henrik Stenson, but Stenson can at least claim poor form heading into the week. Phil Mickelson, who was a pre-tourney favorite, never came close to contending and barely made the cut. If I didn't know any better, I'd say these guys were looking ahead to the Masters, which I guess I can't blame them for, but it didn't used to be like this.
Perhaps golf is falling victim to the "championship" mentality, as well. It's the thought that nothing besides the championship, or in this case, the majors, really matter. This isn't a new phenomenon for the absolute best players in the world. Jack and Tiger never even tried to hide that their plan for each season revolved around the majors, but it was because they were so successful that they could get away with
With the Masters just days away, it's hard to focus on anything else, even with the Houston Open just barely in the rearview mirror, but I'd be remiss if I didn't mention something that seemed strange to me about what happened in Houston last week.
Normally when guys commit to an event, they come to play. That goes for the guys on the lower end and the superstars, which makes what happened at the Houston Open even more confusing. Although there were plenty of big names in the field last week, only Rickie Fowler contended. Jon Rahm finished in the top 10, but was never a factor. Jordan Spieth mysteriously missed the cut as did Henrik Stenson, but Stenson can at least claim poor form heading into the week. Phil Mickelson, who was a pre-tourney favorite, never came close to contending and barely made the cut. If I didn't know any better, I'd say these guys were looking ahead to the Masters, which I guess I can't blame them for, but it didn't used to be like this.
Perhaps golf is falling victim to the "championship" mentality, as well. It's the thought that nothing besides the championship, or in this case, the majors, really matter. This isn't a new phenomenon for the absolute best players in the world. Jack and Tiger never even tried to hide that their plan for each season revolved around the majors, but it was because they were so successful that they could get away with it. The "championship" mentality never went beyond the top one or two players on tour. Now it seems that even guys who haven't mastered the weekly grind are looking ahead. But who am I to talk? I was thinking about Azaleas all last week.
This week: The Masters - Augusta National Country Club, Augusta, Ga.
Last Year: Danny Willett shot a final-round 67 on his way to a three-stroke victory over Jordan Spieth and Lee Westwood.
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER
Rory McIlroy
Other names are generating more attention and with good cause, but I have a feeling about McIlroy this week. He's played well lately, but not so well that he's the favorite, which is perfect. His record here is good enough to think he could get over the hump at Augusta. McIlroy has finished in the top 10 the last three years at Augusta.
Jordan Spieth
Spieth was essentially one bad shot from winning consecutive Masters championships last year, but as we all know, his tee shot on the 12th on Sunday missed its target and the rest is history. That said, his record at Augusta is still impeccable. In three starts here, he finished runner-up twice and won in 2015.
Dustin Johnson
Augusta is the ultimate equalizer. Some golfers simply know how to get around this track with extreme efficiency, which is the only reason why DJ doesn't top the list this week. While he's undoubtedly the best golfer on the planet, his record at Augusta isn't as good as many others in the field. He's still the third-best option this week, and that's high praise.
Paul Casey
It would be too easy to stack the top 5 with big guns, but that wouldn't be any fun. Casey's name doesn't stick out like many names in the field, but he has the game to contend this week as evidence by his top-10s at the last two Masters. With all the attention on guys like Spieth, DJ and Rory, a golfer like Casey could come out of nowhere and win this thing.
Jon Rahm
It's been said that first-timers don't fare well at the Masters, but there have been plenty of instances of first-timers playing well. Jordan Spieth posted a runner-up three years ago, and I dare say Rahm is as good now as Spieth was his first time at Augusta. My only concern is his comment about being tired last week. But even as tired as he was, he battled his way to a top 10 in Houston.
PLAYER TO AVOID
Danny Willett
Willett's struggles have been well documented since winning the Masters last season and my theory is that after this week, he just might be able to get back on track. That doesn't mean that he'll play well this week, in-fact, he'll probably struggle again this week, but after this week, he'll no longer have the pressure of being the defending Masters champ.
Webb Simpson
Simpson has played well this year, but he's never gotten over the hump at Augusta. In five starts here, he's missed the cut twice and has never finished inside the top 25. With so many elite options in the field this week, it's easy to pass on Simpson.
Gary Woodland
Woodland's had a lot on his mind lately, and no one could blame him if he weren't completely focused on golf this week, but this pick is only partially based on his current mindset. His track record here is not great. He missed two cuts in four starts and has never cracked the top 20 at this event.
Zach Johnson
It seems weird to have Johnson on this list. After all, he won this event in 2007. But his track record since his win isn't very good, missing the cut in four of nine starts, and he's only posted one top-10 in that time. Johnson had the magic for one week in 2007, but the competition just keeps getting better, and Johnson seems to be about the same.
Jason Dufner
Dufner's track record at Augusta isn't terrible, but it's nothing that should make you consider using him this week. In six starts at Augusta, Dufner has missed the cut twice and has posted only one top-20. Guys either have a strong feel for this course or they don't -- Dufner doesn't.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Last week: Russell Henley (1) - $1,260,000; Season - $4,494,824
This week: Rory McIlroy - A quick note on last week's pick. An astute reader pointed out that I had used Mickelson already, so in the comments section, I switched to Henley, who was listed as my second choice last week. As for this week, my pick came down to Spieth or McIlroy, and while in the same position last year, I chose Spieth. This year I am going with McIlroy. Again, you can backup either pick with plenty of numbers, but I'm going with my gut this week.
YAHOO PICKS
Points: 1,632
Rank: 24,546
This Week:
Group A: Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson
Group B: Jordan Spieth, Phil Mickelson, Paul Casey, Justin Rose
Group C: Jon Rahm, Russell Henley
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: Phil Mickelson - (T55); Streak - 2
This week: Rory McIlroy - No fooling around this week. Majors can be tough to find any safe option to just make the cut, but McIlroy has made the cut here in seven of eight starts and his game is in good form. Only a mental breakdown could stand in the way of a made cut this week.
