Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview: DJ Is Automatic at Pebble

The PGA Tour heads back to California for what was once a pretty big deal on the schedule, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The big draw, of course, is well, the course, Pebble Beach. This year, Pebble Beach is also the site of the U.S. Open, but it won't be the exact same course once the USGA gets its hands on it.

Additionally, golfers won't be playing all four rounds at Pebble Beach this week, just two – if they make the cut, that is. Another three-course rotation is in play this week, but there isn't a lot separating these courses. Spyglass is generally considered the toughest of the bunch, with Pebble Beach in the middle and Monterey Peninsula on the low-end; but again, not a ton of separation.

This week: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am - Pebble Beach Golf Links, Pebble Beach, Calif.

Last Year: Ted Potter Jr. shot a final-round 69 on his way to a three-stroke victory over four players, including Dustin Johnson, Jason Day and Phil Mickelson.

FAVORITES

Dustin Johnson (5-1)

DJ is to the AT&T as Hideki is to the Phoenix Open. (Sure, Hideki let a lot of people down last week, but that should have no bearing on how you proceed this week.) There are a few differences, not the least of which is that DJ holds more value for the remainder of the season. But there will not be a better spot to use him all season. The competition is stiff, but DJ is in fine form and has been remarkably consistent here. DJ is a deserving favorite this week.

Jason Day (9-1)

Day has never won this event, but he's finished in the top 10 in five of his nine starts here. He's finished outside the top 20 just twice at this event, which shows he's obviously comfortable here. Day should do well this week, but if it's between DJ and Day, I'm taking DJ. There will be plenty of spots to use Day this season, specifically a major or a WGC event.

Tony Finau (18-1)

This doesn't feel right. Finau is a fine player, but there are too many high-quality golfers in the field this week with strong track records at this event to list Finau as the third favorite. Finau has only played this event once, and finished T23. His form is also in question as he missed the cut last week in Scottsdale.

MID-TIER GOLFERS

Jordan Spieth (20-1)

Spieth might not be all the way back yet, but we've seen signs that he's getting closer. An opening-round 65 at the Farmers was one of those signs before he fizzled down the stretch. There has been a lot of talk about Spieth's chances this week, almost as if everyone knows something the general public does not. Perhaps he really is that close to getting back to form. His track record here is solid, with six top-25s, including a win, in six tries. If he's anywhere near his old form again, he'll be in contention this week.

Phil Mickelson (25-1)

There was a time when Mickelson was a lock at this event, much like DJ is now. While he's certainly not a lock anymore, the upside remains. Mickelson has won this event four times and finished runner-up in two of his last three starts here. He's coming off a poor effort last week, but that usually serves to motivate Mickelson rather than foretell his upcoming production.

Chez Reavie (30-1)

If you are looking for someone off the beaten path, Reavie could be your guy this week. Reavie was in the pack of four that finished runner-up here last year, and he comes in on a roll. Reavie finished T4 last week in Scottsdale and carded another top-5 at the Sony a few weeks back.

LONGSHOTS

Brandt Snedeker (50-1)

Snedeker is not in good form, but he's a two-time winner at this event and has four top-20s in his Last six starts here. Snedeker enters this week in the top-20 on the FedEx points list but hasn't played all that well in 2019. Perhaps a trip back to Pebble will get him back on track.

Jimmy Walker (100-1)

Walker is not in good form either, but he was in much worse form when he teed it up here last year and he managed a T8. That top-10 wasn't an aberration either as Walker generally plays well at this event, no matter his form. Walker has finished 11th or better in six of his last eight starts at this event.

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Optimal pick: Dustin Johnson - DJ is certainly going to be a popular pick for the U.S. Open this year, but he clearly has a better chance of winning this week as the field isn't nearly as strong this week as it will be in June. There are several good options this week, but DJ is clearly the top pick. He'll be a popular pick, like Matsuyama was last week, but that's no reason to fade him.

Buyer beware: Tony Finau - He's the third-favorite this week, but again, he virtually has no track record here when compared to the other big guns in the field. Besides, when was the last time he won? OK, I'm only half serious as he's too good to knock for a winless drought, but there will be much better spots to use Finau this season.

Last week: Hideki Matsuyama (T15) - $113,600; Season - $2,654,899

This week: Dustin Johnson - I was mildly surprised at the lack of Matsuyama picks last week, and I'm guessing there will be plenty of people fading DJ this week as well. With Johnson, people are likely to hold onto him for larger events, but again, that's not the best strategy; the best strategy is to use each player when they have best chance to win. For DJ, that's this week.

FANDUEL PICKS

High/Mid/Low: Dustin Johnson ($12,400)/Chez Reavie ($10,500)/Ryan Armour ($7,900)

SURVIVOR PICK

Last week: Hideki Matsuyama - (T15); Streak - 4

This week: Dustin Johnson - No reason to mess around with this pick. DJ is hot and he's missed only one cut in 11 starts here. Another thing to remember is that with the WGC events, there aren't as many cuts during the season, so you won't need to use as many players. In other words, you'll have plenty of high-quality options to choose from later in the season, even if you use a guy like DJ here.