This article is part of our PGA Tour Stats Review series.
It's U.S. Open week, and as Dick Enberg would say, "Oh my." These initial pictures and videos coming out of Oakmont are BRUTAL. If you missed a traditional U.S. Open, this is your week: Thick rough, fast greens and an imperative to be accurate. If not, you're gone. This is going to be a stats thread unlike any other because frankly, I think it may be easier to eliminate people than it will be to pick people.
First though, the weather: right now, the rough is juicy, the greens are fast, and the course is firm. However, very heavy rain is currently predicted for Thursday into Friday followed by sun over the weekend. If that happens, this golf course suddenly changes, it gets softer, and someone like Bubba Watson – who I think has zero chance under these current conditions, suddenly has a chance. So the weather might be the ultimate thing to watch this week.
Here's the thing: Oakmont is going to play exactly as it did in 2007. It's not an overly long golf course -- 7,200 yards or so -- but man is it penal if you get yourself off line. Have a look at these:
So, who can we eliminate? Besides the obvious – amateurs, feel good stories from every day Joe and Jim's – let's start with driving accuracy. If you don't drive it well this week, you're out. Notables at bottom of driving accuracy stat:
Jimmy Walker -- 50.50%
Tony Finau -- 52.95%
J.B. Holmes -- 53.30%
Ernie Els -- 53.91%
Charley Hoffman -- 53.97%
I'm not sure anyone was seriously looking at any of these guys this week – Els did win here in 1994 but is still trying to instill confidence in everyone after his shaky putting performance at Augusta, and Walker hasn't shown good form lately – but I just don't see anyone who drives it this poorly winning this week.
Next up is greens in regulation. If you don't hit your greens, you're going to be in trouble this week. Those at the bottom include:
Ernie Els -- 59.47%
Jamie Donaldson -- 61.11%
Geoff Ogilvy -- 61.89%
Angel Cabrera -- 61.94%
Retief Goosen -- 62.35%
Cabrera is the 2007 champion here but hasn't had good form lately at all – though he tends to win out of nowhere. This year on the PGA Tour he has zero Top-10s and just one Top-25 in 16 starts.
Donaldson is the intriguing name here, as the European has been inconsistent of late: missed cut at Wells Fargo, T10 at Irish Open, missed cut at BMW PGA, and T26 in Memphis. He's T144 in strokes gained off the tee and T144 in strokes gained – approach to the green, and I don't like those numbers this week.
So what will work? Well, as McDowell's video shows, scrambling from the rough is going to be crucial. Those leaders in the field this week are:
Patrick Reed – gets it up and down 67.24% of the time
Russell Knox -- 65.66%
Andrew Landry -- 65.15%
Kevin Chappell -- 64.80%
Kevin Streelman -- 64.21%
Reed is the really interesting choice here. He seems overdue for a major and has two second place finishes this year – at Hyundai and Valero – to go along with eight other top-10s. Also ranking first in strokes gained – around the green, he could be a nice sleeper pick this week.
If it gets soft, watch out for someone like Chappell, still looking for his first PGA Tour win but with nothing to lose in a week like this. He could sneak up and contend for a while. He ranks seventh in strokes gained – approach to the green on the PGA Tour this season and 42nd in strokes gained – around the green.
Here are some random thoughts on other players:
1) As Golf Digest's Steve Hennessey pointed out on my radio show, Brandt Snedeker – steady guy, straight hitter, streaky putter – won on the hardest day of the year on the PGA Tour, that crazy Sunday-Monday final round at Torrey Pines. He's 25th in strokes gained – around the green this season.
2) Of the Big Three, I like Jason Day the best. The fact that he can hit his driving iron/1-iron/whatever you want to call that thing 300 yards and perfectly straight is a huge advantage this week.
3) My co-pick to win (along with Day) is Phil Mickelson. We saw just enough last week in Memphis – he ranked first in strokes gained – putting and 16th in strokes gained – off the tee, that I like him this week.
4) My international sleeper is Matthew Fitzpatrick, who won on the European Tour a couple of weeks ago.
5) My official sleeper is Jason Dufner, who I think has the perfect makeup for Oakmont. The CareerBuilder winner drives it straight, has a cool demeanor and can be streaky with the putter when on. He ranks 14th in strokes gained – approach to the green this season.
