Phoenix Open Preview: Matsuyama Shoots for Three-Peat

As the weekend approached at the Farmers Insurance Open, my thoughts turned to how to describe the emerging greatness of Jon Rahm. After all, he was only two rounds away from successfully defending his championship at the Farmers and winning back-to-back on the PGA Tour. Surely, he was ascending to the next level, one reserved for the players who are not only talented but have the mental ability to push through anything, the guys who once they take the lead on the weekend, it's over, the special golfers.

It was going quite as scripted during Saturday's third round as Rahm got off to a rocky start. Even though he clearly did not have his best game, he was still in the mix, just two strokes off the lead as he set up for his approach shot to the par-5 18th hole. You probably know what happened next, and to be honest, I wasn't all that upset with his approach shot that came up well short and landed in the water. It was a miss hit or a miss club, whatever, it doesn't matter. It was a mistake and mistakes happen, but Rahm didn't move on from that mistake. He compounded it by carding a double-bogey on the hole. His 75 left him four strokes back of the leader, and while I'm sure he would have preferred being one or two behind, he was still within striking distance.

Then he teed it up Sunday and again proved that he was in fact a young man without the wisdom of his elders. Someone not wise beyond his years, like say, Jordan Spieth, who is indeed a special golfer. Jon Rahm has as much talent as anyone on the PGA Tour, and he's already accomplished a ton on the PGA Tour, but he's not special ... yet.

This week: Phoenix Open - TPC Scottsdale - Scottsdale, Ariz.

Last Year: Hideki Matsuyama shot a final-round 66 on his way to a playoff victory over Webb Simpson.

PLAYERS TO CONSIDER

Hideki Matsuyama

I was all set to play contrarian this week and fade Matsuyama, but then he played well last Sunday at the Farmers and now he's nearly unavoidable. There are two reasons not to take Matsuyama this week and neither has to do with his play here. The first is you just want to separate yourself from the crowd, in which case, you might do so, but you might also find yourself at the bottom of the standings. The other reason to fade Matsuyama is because you think the odds are against the three-peat, which they are, of course. Even so, it's still not a great reason to fade him.

Jon Rahm

This week will be a good test to see if the world revolves around me. You see, in my world, having burned Rahm last week, it would make perfect sense that he wins this week. OK, you need more than my own pessimistic view on life to use Rahm this week? How about this: he's played here twice and he's finished in the top 20 both times. In addition, he's not exactly a guy who deals with failure well, so you can bet he'll be ready to make amends for last week, this week.

Webb Simpson

If you had the misfortune of using Rahm last week and you don't want to burn another big name, then Simpson could be your man. Simpson has an outstanding track record at this event, with four top-10s here in his last five starts. He posted a top-5 at the Sony a couple weeks ago.

J.B. Holmes

Holmes took a ton of heat for slow-playing the final hole Sunday, and all of that added attention can surely affect one's game, but if his head is on straight this week, he should again be in contention. Holmes' track record here is a bit scattered, but he has won this event twice and posted a T6 in 2016.

Brendan Steele

There are a lot of quality players in the field this week, so I wouldn't go too deep into the sleeper pool. Steele is about as far as I would go, but he's actually a solid play this week. Steele has finished inside the top 6 here in three of seven starts and has never missed the cut at this event.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

Bryson DeChambeau

DeChambeau played well last season and started this season with three top-20s, but he finished 26th at the Tournament of Champions and missed the cut last week at the Farmers. DeChambeau is as streaky as anyone on the PGA Tour and is not playing well. This will be his first time at this event, so there's no reason to think he finds his game this week.

Scott Stallings

Consider this retribution for tricking me into putting him on the "Consider" list last week. That's actually two years in a row that I fell for Stallings at the Farmers. No such issue this week as Stallings has been terrible at the Waste Management Open over the years. Thought you could get away unscathed, did you, Scott Stallings?

Xander Schauffele

Perhaps I'm tempting fate by putting Schauffele on this list in consecutive weeks, but it paid off last week so I'll just stay in "wait and see" mode with him. As noted last week, Schauffele was on fire late last season, but he did come out of nowhere, so we can't be sure he's the real deal just yet.

Luke List

List got a lot of airtime Saturday as he remained in contention for the entire round, only to fade out of the picture with a final-round 75. While List might be in line for a solid season, he'll likely have to wait until next week before he really gets going. List has played this even three times and has yet to make the cut. It could be argued that he's a better player now than at any time during those previous three starts, but then again, this event is a different beast and maybe he's not ready for it.

Justin Thomas

This one could come back to bite me, but Thomas's track record here leaves a lot to be desired. Think twice about using him this week. Thomas has missed the cut here the last two years, and last year he was on fire entering this event, so maybe this event just isn't for Thomas. There are much better one-and-done picks than Thomas this week, and I might even fade him in other formats as well.

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Last week: Jon Rahm (Terrible-T29) - $43,872; Season - $1,533,691

This week: Hideki Matsuyama - I would feel so much better about this pick had Rahm won last week, but I'll have to settle for not losing more ground this week. With any luck, some other owners in your league will get cute and pick someone else, but Matsuyama is definitely the smart pick this week.

PGATOUR.COM PICKS

This Week:

Starters: Hideki Matsuyama, Brendan Steele, J.B. Holmes, Webb Simpson

Bench: Rickie Fowler, Jon Rahm

SURVIVOR PICK

Last week: Hunter Mahan - (T69); Streak - 1

This week: Brendan Steele - The Mahan pick actually paid off last week, with ease I might add. Sure, he finished T69, but that's because he played poorly on the weekend. He made the cut with ease. As for this week, Steele is 7-for-7 here and has also played well on the weekend, so he obviously has a good feel for this course.