Phoenix Open Preview: Webb Looking for First Win

The PGA Tour heads to Scottsdale, Ariz., this week as the annual Super Bowl weekend party takes shape on the famed 16th hole at the Phoenix Open. There's nothing particularly special about the hole itself, but the atmosphere, thanks in no small part to loads of alcohol, makes for quite the scene. 

The 16th hole can be quite intimidating for those who are faint of heart, but everyone who signs up for this event knows what they are getting into by this point and those who choose to have fun with it likely will fare best. 

We have plenty of course history this week as TPC Scottsdale is the only course that has been used for this event. We are also starting to build up a better idea of current form as almost everyone has played at least once this year. A quick look at the recent winners reveals that this might be a good week to side with the chalk this week.              

This week: Phoenix Open – TPC Scottsdale, Scottsdale, Ariz.

Last Year: Rickie Fowler shot a final-round 74 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Brendan Grace.  

FAVORITES

Jon Rahm (7-1)

When you enter the final round with a lead and close with a flourish (even if you don't win), you are bound to be a popular pick the following week. In this case, said player happened to be a favorite among betters, which is why he's installed as a slight favorite this week. Rahm has a nice track record here, but he's missing the high-end finishes that you'd like to see from the favorite, but considering his current form, he deserves to be atop the list.              

Justin Thomas (9-1)  

Thomas is always in the mix to be the favorite, but Rahm comes in hot off a runner-up and his track record here is a little better. Thomas' track record is all over the place; he posted his best finish at this event last year when he finished solo third. Thomas missed the cut in his most recent start but won the start prior to that. He will play well this week, but his price might not hold enough value.                

Webb Simpson (12-1)

Simpson has yet to win here, but his track record is solid nonetheless. In nine starts here, he's made seven cuts and finished in the top-10 four times. His form is solid as well, finishing solo third in his most recent start at the Sony Open.                      

MID-TIER GOLFERS                       

Rickie Fowler (16-1)

The MC last week at the Farmers is just what we needed to get these odds beefed up as Fowler has a lot going for him this week. Although he missed the cut last week, Fowler looked good in his first two starts of the year, posting a top-10 in each. His track record here is stellar as well, with one win and pair of runner-up finishes.                

Hideki Matsuyama (18-1)

It wasn't long ago that you'd go with Hideki here and not even consider the field, but he withdrew two years ago with a wrist injury and only managed a top-15 last year. As for the four years prior to that WD, yeah that was pretty decent, just a fourth, a runner-up and two wins. His form is what's keeping his odds in check this week as he hasn't cracked the top 10 in either of his starts this year.                  

Bubba Watson (33-1)

We all know there are courses that Bubba likes and ones that he doesn't. There's no need to even consider him if he hasn't played well on a certain track, but that's not the case this week as he has played well on this course, several times in fact. Watson has made the cut in 11 of 13 starts here and has cracked the top 10 in five times. He's also coming off a good showing at the Farmers last week.                

LONGSHOTS

Brandt Snedeker (35-1)  

Snedeker has been consistent here over the years, making the cut in 11 of 12 starts, but he doesn't have a lot of high-end finishes. Usually that's a formula I prefer to avoid when trying to find a winner, but in this case I'll make an exception because of his current form. Snedeker tied for third last week at the Farmers, but he spent a good portion of the final round in the runner-up spot.    

Ryan Palmer (50-1)  

I might be a week late on Palmer, but I hope his decent track record at this event will extend his mini-run for at least one more week. Palmer has posted top-25s in each of his last six starts, with a couple top-5s. He should have had another last week at the Farmers, but a final-round 77 torpedoed his week.                  

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Highly Owned Pick: Hideki Matsuyama - This is all about habit. For years, the OAD players had Matsuyama penciled in as the pick in this spot and one WD and a top-15 aren't going to get many off of this pick. His form might not be peak, but there probably isn't a more optimal spot to use Matsuyama on the calendar.                      

Moderately Owned Pick: Webb Simpson - Simpson doesn't feel like an early season pick to me, as there are spots down the road where he might be better suited, but it's hard to argue with his recent form and his track record here. If you're OK with burning him early, then there's nothing holding you back this week.              

Lightly Owned Pick: Bubba Watson - There are good places to use Bubba and there are great places to use Bubba. This is just a good place, which is why ownership could be low this week. That and there are several quality choices on the board.                            

Buyer Beware: Gary Woodland - Woodland won this event two years ago and his overall track record here is pretty solid. But a closer look reveals that, for the most part, he only plays well here if he played well the week prior, and that's not the case this year as he missed the cut at the Farmers last week.                        

Last Week: Tony Finau (T6) $253,125; Season - $784,425  

This Week: Webb Simpson - It almost pains me to go away from Matsuyama this week as I've picked him in this spot for the last four years, but I like what I see out of Webb, and he's no stranger to taking down tough fields.                                                      

FANDUEL PICKS 

High/Mid/Low: Hideki Matsuyama ($11,300)/Bubba Watson ($10,600)/Kiradech Aphibarnrat ($8,400)

SURVIVOR PICK

Last Week: Tony Finau (T6); Streak - 3

This Week: Webb Simpson - The double-up worked last week, which means it has to work again this week, right? OK, that's certainly flawed logic, but what isn't flawed is Simpson's current form. He's also made the cut in seven of nine starts here.