This article is part of our Weekly PGA Recap series.
You watched Tiger Woods on Sunday (and probably Thursday, Friday and Saturday, too). You saw he came close. You saw he didn't win. We don't need to tell you too much about what you saw. Really, the big question is: What happens next?
Well, we don't know any more than you do whether Woods will win next week at Bay Hill or early next month at Augusta. What we do know is that Fantasy Golf just changed.
These last few weeks are really the first time Woods has been around since Daily Fantasy Golf has come into prominence. His prices already were high in his first few tournaments because, well, because he's Tiger Woods. And now that Woods has shown he can contend by finishing tied for second on Sunday at the Valspar, albeit in not the strongest of fields, his prices will go even higher. It will be fascinating to see what happens when the prices for the Arnold Palmer Invitational come out. Up against, Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler and Jason Day, among others in a pretty stout field, will Woods be No. 1 on the DraftKings, FanDuel and Fantasy Draft boards? Quite possibly.
And that's not even the half of it. After that, all the prognosticators will publish their weekly picks. It's hard to envision anyone bypassing Woods in either of his next two starts, at courses where he has thrived. Because even though these prognosticators use various forms of data, and will have to balance that data
You watched Tiger Woods on Sunday (and probably Thursday, Friday and Saturday, too). You saw he came close. You saw he didn't win. We don't need to tell you too much about what you saw. Really, the big question is: What happens next?
Well, we don't know any more than you do whether Woods will win next week at Bay Hill or early next month at Augusta. What we do know is that Fantasy Golf just changed.
These last few weeks are really the first time Woods has been around since Daily Fantasy Golf has come into prominence. His prices already were high in his first few tournaments because, well, because he's Tiger Woods. And now that Woods has shown he can contend by finishing tied for second on Sunday at the Valspar, albeit in not the strongest of fields, his prices will go even higher. It will be fascinating to see what happens when the prices for the Arnold Palmer Invitational come out. Up against, Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler and Jason Day, among others in a pretty stout field, will Woods be No. 1 on the DraftKings, FanDuel and Fantasy Draft boards? Quite possibly.
And that's not even the half of it. After that, all the prognosticators will publish their weekly picks. It's hard to envision anyone bypassing Woods in either of his next two starts, at courses where he has thrived. Because even though these prognosticators use various forms of data, and will have to balance that data with the field and the prices, they are all only human.
Anyone who picks fantasy golf or plays fantasy golf is a huge golf fan. And most – not all – anecdotally have been rooting for Woods. So when it comes time to offer picks, or submit lineups, there will be a heavy, heavy megadose of heart-over-head. How can there not be? And quite candidly, who wants to be the one who didn't pick Woods the week that he wins his first tournament? My goodness, you'd feel like the poor schlub at the office who didn't go in with his 14 co-workers for the winning lottery ticket. Of course, you wouldn't be losing millions of dollars but you would feel like a doofus.
Before we move on to Paul Casey, who hadn't won in many more years than even Woods, let's talk a little bit about how Woods played. Boy, he sure did electrify things when he air-mailed that 44-footer for birdie on 17, didn't he? For all the social media chatter about how Woods played conservatively and didn't go with a driver much at Copperhead, it was his putting that cost him the title.
Even with that remarkable birdie, Woods lost nearly a stroke to the field in strokes gained: putting on Sunday and was ranked 39th for the week. He surely had his chances. And he fell one stroke short.
DFS pickers/players wouldn't have felt too bad had Woods won last week. There wasn't enough of an indication it could happen so quickly. Next week, and a few weeks after that, it will be a different story.
Paul Casey
While Woods hasn't won since 2013, Casey hadn't won on the PGA Tour since 2009, when he copped his lone victory. Those nine years spanned 150 tournaments, a stretch during which Casey has been remarkably good: six runners-up, 22 top-fives. This was the Englishman's 16th worldwide victory in a stellar career.
Casey now moves to No. 12 in the world, not his career best – back around the time of his lone prior win at Houston, he was a top-10 staple.
This victory doesn't do a whole lot for Casey in terms of fantasy status. He's always been a valuable chip with many high finishes. He just could never close the deal.
And not to be mean-spirited about it, but had Casey not putted out of his mind with a career-low 21 putts for the round, and had Woods not been terrible on the greens and had Patrick Reed not bogeyed 18, Casey still might be amid a long winless stretch.
MONDAY BACKSPIN
Patrick Reed
Needing only a par on 18 for force a playoff, and being on the green in two, Reed hit one of the worst putts imaginable – up a hill, not far enough, rolled back to pretty much where he started. For someone whose game hasn't matched his mouth over the years, Reed had a great chance to even that imbalance. All he was left with was his first top-10 in 10 tries this season; he's already missed four cuts. Look, Reed is ranked 23rd in the OWGR, which is pretty darn good. But as Casey can attest, you are judged largely on wins. And Reed has underperformed for the past two years.
Sergio Garcia
Garcia appears to be peaking as he nears the defense of his Masters title. He tied for fourth at Copperhead a week after a T7 in Mexico. And he did so by ranking 71st in the field in strokes gained putting. Tee to green, he's that good. Garcia isn't on anybody's short list to win again at Augusta, but he continues to play some of the best golf of his career. He's back inside the top-10 at No. 9 in the OWGR.
Sam Burns
Burns followed up his T8 at the Honda, where he won his Sunday duel with Woods, with a T12 at the Valspar. Throw in a T20 last fall at the Shriner's, and there's a body of good work developing. With rookies, they easily could go back from where they started, but Burns is at least showing that might not be the case with him. He could be a popular lineup option, depending on his price, at Bay Hill this week.
Corey Connors
The 54-hole leader and Tour rookie bogeyed the first and third holes en route to a 6-over 77 and fell into a tie for 16th. At the beginning of the week, he would've taken that in a heartbeat. But now that we see how it transpired, he didn't leave us with the same good feeling as Burns has. We'll believe in Connors when we see him do it for more than three rounds.
Brandt Snedeker
Snedeker did not have to do much to play himself into the WGC-Match Play, whose field was determined by the newest OWGR rankings. He started the day T2 but ended up T31 after a disastrous 78 alongside Woods. Just about anything in the top-20 would've gotten Snedeker into the Match Play in two weeks. Worse, he still hasn't qualified for the Masters and has scant time to crack the top-50 in the OWGR by March 26. He has one shot left: this week at Bay Hill, where he enters at No. 72 in the world.
Bill Haas
Having withdrawn from Riviera after being a passenger in a car accident that killed his friend, this was Haas' first start back. Just the fact that he played, much less played four rounds, is an accomplishment. The T49 doesn't matter all that much, other than it also meant Haas didn't move high enough in the OWGR to get into the Match Play. Bluntly, Haas hasn't been a stellar fantasy option for some time, as he was on occasion in the past. It was just nice to see him get through the week.
Chris Couch
Talk about long layoffs. Woods has nothing on Couch. The soon-to-be 45-year-old played for the first time in six years. Couch remarkably made the cut, tying for 68th. Sidelined for years by a back injury, Couch actually got into the field on a still-existing major medical extension. But after earning only $13,000, he'll need to come up with close to $300,000 in just three remaining starts. He won't get it, but it does not minimize what Couch accomplished last week.
Jordan Spieth
Welcome to: It's Close to the Masters and Someone Isn't Playing Well, Part 1: Spieth missed the cut, badly, at the Valspar, and his putting continues to be horrid. Not just bad, horrid. He's ranked 167th on Tour in strokes gained: putting. Sure, Spieth has five top-25s in seven starts this season – if he makes the cut, he's finishing top-25 – but he hasn't even sniffed being in contention. Spieth is skipping Bay Hill, then presumably will play the Match Play and Houston leading up to Augusta. He still has time to find his putting game. But then again, Spieth has already been looking for two months. And if he isn't putting well before the Masters, he won't figure it out there.
Rory McIlroy
Welcome to: It's Close to the Masters and Someone Isn't Playing Well, Part 2: At least Spieth was notching some decent finishes. McIlroy missed the Valspar cut, his second trunk-slam in four starts this season. He also has a T59 and a T20. There's a whole lot less for McIlroy to feel encouraged about than Spieth has. McIlroy gets another chance to right the ship this week at Bay Hill, though there's little that we've seen to suggest he will.
