Weekly Preview: Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Port Royal GC
Southampton Parish, Bermuda

The PGA Tour heads to Bermuda for the latest edition of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship.

Before we get to that, a quick science lesson. Let's check in on Newton's Third Law, which states that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. I bring this up because during the fall portion of the schedule, for every loaded field there is a thin one, and we get to experience that this week. As nice as it would be to just live in the afterglow of yet another Rory McIlroy victory, we must move on.

The field in Bermuda is about as depleted as it gets on the PGA Tour, but this is where fantasy sports and betting save the day, as without those contests we'd have little-to-no interest in this week's event. However, with a little skin in the game, just about anything can be exciting.

This event is going to be tough to peg, as not only are all the elite players taking the week off, almost everyone in the next tier is as well. Fortunately, we do have a few years of course history to consult.
                              
All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 5:35 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Lucas Herbert shot a final-round 69 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Patrick Reed and Danny Lee.

FAVORITES

Denny McCarthy (16-1)

McCarthy has been near the top of the chart before, but he is in uncharted territory as the clear favorite. At least the oddsmakers didn't insult us by placing a single digit on the left side of his number. McCarthy is clearly one of the better players in the field, and he has teed it up in Bermuda all three years. On this particular course he has finished T39 and T4. There's actually some value at this price.

Thomas Detry (19-1)

And we've gone off the rails. Detry could be a fine player in the States, but it's just speculation at this point. Detry has played in just 16 PGA Tour events, but it's not like he's a teenager just getting his feet wet. He's 29. He has two top-25s in three starts this season, but at these odds, there's just not enough value, even against a thin field.

Seamus Power (20-1)

Power, like McCarthy, was able to produce this past year, which makes me think he will be in the mix on the weekend. Power ended this past season with over $3 million in earnings in 26 starts. His best finish came at the Sony Open, where he posted a T3. He also finished top-10 at the PGA Championship. He's got the skills to win and this could be where it happens.

THE NEXT TIER

Aaron Rai (28-1)

I'm a little surprised -- and excited -- to see such a recognizable name in the middle of the list. Rai is still primarily untapped potential at this point, but that's exactly what you want in this scenario. Rai posted only two top-10s this past season, but he's off to a pretty good start in the new one, having made the cut in all three of his starts.

Patrick Rodgers (28-1)

Rodgers appears destined to be a lifelong grinder on the PGA Tour who is continually fighting for a card -- unless he can finally break through for a win. While he's spent most of his time as a professional somewhere around No. 100 in the standings, he has managed three runner-ups in his career. Perhaps he can find the magic here. He did post a solo fourth this past year in Bermuda.

Stephan Jaeger (37-1)

Potential, right? We're looking for guys with that, and Jaeger fits the bill. He appears to be a late bloomer, but that doesn't mean he's incapable of hitting his full potential in his mid-30s. Jaeger tore up the Korn Ferry Tour two years ago, and while he wasn't great during his return to the PGA Tour this past season, he was good enough to keep his card. He knows how to win, especially against lesser fields.

LONG SHOTS

Callum Tarren (41-1)

I was surprised to see Tarren this far down the list. If nothing else, he's got a little name recognition. Tarren has a lot of potential as well, but like nearly everyone in this field it has been unfulfilled. All it takes is one good week, however, and Tarren has the skills to pull it off here. This is a nice number in a field like this.

Erik van Rooyen (60-1)

I'm not about to check and see the number of players in the field who have a PGA Tour win, but I can guarantee it's not many, and most of those guys are past their prime. van Rooyen would be the exception, as his most recent win came during the 2020-21 season and he's only in his third full season on the PGA Tour. Sure, his game fell off this past year, but this is a great spot to get back on track.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Denny McCarthy - He's one of the only names the average golf fan will recognize in the field. That might be taking it a little too far, but you get the point. The casual OAD player will know his name, and therefore will jump on him. McCarthy probably doesn't have a ton of value in 2023, so you might as well use him here.

Moderately-owned Pick: Seamus Power - Power and McCarthy will likely be the top two picks just because they are the only ones in the field coming off solid seasons. Though the odds don't show it, Power is just as likely to win as McCarthy, and if you are looking to pivot from McCarthy, Power looks like the best option.

Lightly-owned Pick: Callum Tarren - No one outside of McCarthy and Power will garner heavy attention, so you have your choice of guys that can help you make a move on your leaguemates. My choice would be Tarren, who has flashed a few times over the past 12 months and could make a decent run.

Buyer Beware: Luke Donald - I can't believe I found a name recognizable enough to put in this spot. Sure, not many would even consider using Donald, but perhaps you're just looking for the most accomplished player and hoping for a special moment. I'd advise against that, as Donald is well past his prime and only managed two top-25s in 22 starts this past season.

This Week: Seamus Power - Though the field is very thin, there are some decent options to choose from. Since I've used McCarthy already, I'll have to go with Power, who based on last season's winnings is more accomplished than the bulk of the field. He's also familiar with this course, having played it the past two years. He was T12 this past year.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Denny McCarthy ($12,000)
Middle Range: Aaron Rai ($10,400)
Lower Range: Sam Ryder ($8,800)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Russell Knox - When making your selection for this event, more important than anything else will be going with a golfer who will take it seriously. Knox has been all business in Bermuda since the beginning. He finished top-20 in all three starts, including his two most recent starts on this course. He should have no problem making it to the weekend.

Previous Results