Weekly Preview: John Deere Classic

John Deere Classic

TPC Deere Run
Silvis, IL

The PGA Tour heads to Illinois for the first edition of the John Deere Classic in two years. 

There's no way to put this nicely: Some events are great because they have fantastic fields and others struggle because they don't. It's no fault of the John Deere Classic that it was placed in absolutely the worst spot on the PGA Tour schedule, so there's no blame to lay here -- it just simply is what it is. This week's event is the last in the United States prior to the Open Championship, so by nature, there aren't going to be many big names on hand. That's unlikely to change until or unless this tournament finds another spot on the calendar.

Instead of looking at who's not here, though, we should look at who is. We have Daniel Berger and Cam Davis, fresh off a win this past week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. And then...okay, that fell off pretty fast. But hey, this is why fantasy sports are so important to the popularity of any sport. Very few casual fans will be tuning into the action this week in Illinois, but you can bet gamers will be, and let's not forget the gamblers, who certainly aren't taking a week off. 

Not every event can be entertaining for the masses, but to those that have a stake in the game, even the John Deere Classic is a must watch.

LAST YEAR

This event was not held last year due to the pandemic, but in 2019 Dylan Frittelli shot a final-round 64 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Russell Henley.

FAVORITES

Daniel Berger (10-1)

I mentioned earlier that Berger was the main attraction, and quite honestly, he's the main draw by a mile, at least as far as his play on the course. He's deservedly the favorite, but the problem as always with a big favorite in this spot is, will his head be in the game or will he be peeking ahead? There's no way to know, and his history doesn't provide a clear picture, as he only has two starts here. For betting purposes, it might seem easy to go with Berger, but it feels like there's too much uncertainty at this slim number.

Brian Harman (16-1)

Perhaps I'm just grasping at straws, because like Berger, Harman is also in the field for the Open Championship. However, I feel that Harman will be paying more attention to the event at hand than Berger. Maybe it's because Berger is more accomplished or maybe it's because Harman has been on a nice roll lately. Whatever the case, there's certainly a lot more value in Harman's odds. Oh, he also won this event in 2014, so that helps his cause as well.

Sungjae Im (16-1)

Raise your hand if you are surprised to see Im in the field this week. Okay, no one? It makes sense that the guy who plays almost every week would be playing this week, especially since he pulled out of the Open Championship. Im has not been at his best lately, but he's the highest-listed player on the odds chart that is not traveling overseas afterward, so that's certainly an angle to consider. He finished T26 in his only previous start at this event in 2019.

THE NEXT TIER

Russell Henley (20-1)

Henley is in the field next week, so you'll want to be careful with him as well. He has a couple things working for him, though. He has only played this event twice, but his most recent start resulted in a runner-up finish in 2019. He's also played better of late, making a decent run at the U.S. Open before faltering Sunday. The only thing that concerns me about his track record here is that when he finished second, he did not play in the Open Championship the following week.

Cam Davis (30-1)

This is generally not something I would advise, taking a young player off of his first PGA Tour win, but big things are expected of Davis and perhaps a win is the springboard he needed to take his game to another level. We should get an idea where he's at this week, as he is not playing in the last major, so there's no need to focus on anything except the John Deere Classic. That is, if he's still not suffering from the first-time-winner's hangover.

Troy Merritt (40-1)

This is too simple, right? Taking the guys that finished first and second last week? It's not what I generally do, but this week is very unique and you have to adapt to the conditions sometimes. Merritt could easily have won the Rocket Mortgage Classic, but instead he left with a bitter taste in his mouth. Now he gets a chance to get right back on the horse and try to take down a much weaker field. Merritt is definitely at the top of his game, but I'm concerned about his track record here, which is not great.

LONG SHOTS

Zach Johnson (40-1)

Yes, I realize that Johnson's odds are the same as Merritt's, but I needed to find a place to include Johnson this week because it's mandatory that any John Deere preview contains a section about Johnson. The reason, of course, is because he used to own this event. Well, he didn't dominate in the sense that he won it every year, but there was a stretch where he was in the mix on Sunday on a consistent basis. In fact, from 2009-2015, he finished outside the top three just twice. He hasn't been at his best here over the past few years, but then again his game wasn't either. Perhaps a trip back to the friendly confines of Deere Run will bring out the best in Johnson.

Kramer Hickok (80-1)

Remember seeing this name pop up out of nowhere a couple weeks ago? Well, that's the kind of guy we are looking for this week. Whether a more-recognizable name wins or not, you can bet that there are going to be a lot of lesser-known players near the top of the leaderboard. Hickok almost pulled off the improbable at the Travelers Championship, and if he can find that groove again, he should have enough to finish the job this time around.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Daniel Berger - He's the biggest name in the field and he's going to be on a lot of teams, if for no other reason than a lot of OAD players simply do not like taking chances, even in the John Deere Classic. I'm not a huge fan of playing Berger here because I'm not sure of his commitment level, but if he's on, he could run away with this thing.

Moderately-owned Pick: Brian Harman - Even though I got a T5 out of Harman a couple weeks ago, I almost wish I still had him available. He is going to be very popular as well, as he's not a guy you'll need down the stretch and he's been playing some really good golf. If his head is in the game, he will be in contention come Sunday.

Lightly-owned Pick: Steve Stricker - Just like it's mandatory that Johnson be included in this write-up, such is the case with the Ryder Cup captain. Stricker dominated this event about a decade ago, and the only reason he's not listed above is that he's a little further removed from his best days. That doesn't mean he can't prove useful in this format,  as he's almost guaranteed to play the weekend.

Buyer Beware: Anyone in the Open Championship field - I'm breaking from tradition here and not listing only one player, as the ones you really need to worry about are the guys who have flights scheduled for Sunday night. It's not just any major on the horizon -- it's one that's on the other side of the pond, and there's a lot more that goes into it than just showing up to play golf. There will be a lot on the minds of anyone playing the Open and it will be tough to focus on this event, especially early on. If these guys start well, though, then it's a different case.

Last Week: Will Zalatoris - 77 - $14,325

Season Total: $6,566,156

This Week: Daniel Berger - I really struggled with this one as I'd hate to waste Berger if he's not going to be totally committed, but when I checked his history of playing prior to the Open Championship, I found that only once has he played stateside the week before, and that was in 2017, when he finished T5 at Deere Run. It's only one instance, so it's obviously not a large enough sample size to make assumptions, but it's nice to know that he's capable of success in this spot. My only other concern is that he'll be on a lot of OAD teams this week, so this is not the play if you need to make up a lot of ground.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Daniel Berger ($11,900)
Middle Range: Zach Johnson ($10,400)
Lower Range: Steve Stricker ($9,000)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Bryson DeChambeau - MC

Streak: 0

This Week: Steve Stricker - It's crazy to think that using a golfer who has been on the Champions Tour for several years is a good idea, but in this circumstance, I think Stricker is a great play in this format. We only need him to get to the weekend, and that's something he's had no problem doing here. In total, he's made the cut in 14-of-15 starts in this tournament.