Weekly Preview: The American Express

The American Express

Pete Dye Stadium Course, Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
La Quinta, CA

The PGA Tour heads to California for another edition of The American Express. 

Thus far, we've had one elevated event with a short field, one non-elevated event -- is that what we're calling them now? -- with a weak field, and now a non-elevated event with a strong field. It's a bit funny seeing the Twitter reaction to these non-elevated events that draw big names. Some seem to have assumed that the elite players were only playing the best tournaments from here on out. I guess the guys on this Tour actually care about more than just the money. 

This is also the first tournament in 2023 that will use rotating courses. The rotation used to matter a lot more when there was an ultra-popular fantasy golf game back in the 2000s, but since that game is not around any longer, not many care about that aspect. The only time the rotation might come into play is if you are wagering over/under on strokes in a given round or play on a website with single-day contests. The general rule is if a line seems out of whack, there's usually a reason. If say, Will Zalatoris' stroke total seems too high, he might be on the toughest track of the three, so be careful. For the record, the Stadium Course should play as the toughest of the three this week.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 3:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Hudson Swafford shot a final-round 64 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Tom Hoge.

FAVORITES

Jon Rahm (11-2)

To no one's surprise, Rahm is the clear favorite. This happens when a player as highly thought-of as Rahm looks as good as he did two weeks ago at the Tournament of Champions. It's like a validation of sorts for oddsmakers who continually list Rahm as the favorite even if he struggles. Well, that's not the case this week, as Rahm comes in hot and picked up a win here back in 2018. This price is ridiculously low, however, so if you want to get in on Rahm, I would hope for a slow start then live bet him if he gets above 10-1.

Patrick Cantlay (19-2)

Cantlay's position among the favorites shows you how far he's come over the past few years. While he was always thought of as a talented player, the respect shown here indicates both the oddsmakers and the public believe he's one of the best in the world. This is a strong field, so it says a lot that he checks in here. Now, what are his chances this week? Well, his track record is solid, with top-10s in his past three starts in this event. However, he's coming off a T16 at the TOC, which isn't great. I like Cantlay's chances, but I don't like this price.

Scottie Scheffler (10-1)

This is going to be an interesting year for Scheffler, as we'll see if he's truly the player he was last season or just a really good golfer who got extremely hot for a few months. If you've read my previews for the past 12 months, you know where I stand. I believe Scheffler is elite. Scheffler has played well this season, with two top-10s in three starts during the fall and a T7 at the TOC, but he's not locked-in quite yet, so these odds seem a little lofty. As such, I'd pass on him at his opening number but keep him in mind for a live bet.

THE NEXT TIER

Will Zalatoris (19-1)

I was certainly skeptical of Zalatoris at the TOC, but he appeared to return from injury just fine, shooting four rounds in the 60s. Most importantly perhaps was his closing 65 -- his best round of the week. There had to be some rust after the long layoff, but he fought through it and finished in style. If he's back to where he was early this past year, then getting him at this price is a gift. His form isn't the only reason to like him, as Zalatoris finished T6 in this event this past year. He knows how to get around the various tracks.

Tom Kim (20-1)

It will be interesting to see Kim's odds fluctuate throughout the season. This past week he was the favorite, but he missed the cut, so his odds have ballooned. Sure, the strength of field matters, but more importantly, we are all still trying to figure out how good Kim is. I can say this -- he's better than how he looked in Honolulu. I can chalk a lot of that up to being a first-timer at Waialae, which isn't kind to newcomers. Kim should bounce back on a rotation of courses that's very player-friendly.

Tom Hoge (31-1)

I was high on Hoge this past week, but he never found his best form. That could change as he returns to the site of his runner-up finish this past year. Not only did Hoge finish second in 2022, he also posted a T6 in 2020. He has missed the cut a handful of times, but most of those came before he found his game a couple years ago.

LONG SHOTS

Taylor Montgomery (42-1)

It appears that the long layoff did not affect the momentum Montgomery built this past fall. He has eight starts this season and he's finished outside the top 15 just once. Now, that doesn't mean he's on the brink of winning, but we've seen this script before -- keeping giving yourself chances and eventually it will happen. The fact that he hasn't won is the only reason he is listed in this range at this point. Any veteran on a similar run would have smaller odds.

Will Gordon (100-1)
 
We are getting into "extremely unlikely" territory, but that's why the payoff is so great. Gordon may not win this week of course, but the signs of his improvement are everywhere. He came onto the PGA Tour a few years back with a lot of expectation, and although he failed to live up to those, he is now playing some really solid golf. The pedigree is there, and he's been through the struggles. Now he's ready to make his move.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Sungjae Im - It's not often that a player shows up in this spot after not appearing above, but that's the case this week, as I'm sticking with my belief that many OAD players will refuse to use elite players in a non-elevated event. I agree with this strategy, as if you take Rahm you need him to win to pay it off. During an elevated event, he could finish as low as third and still provide enough value. As for Im, he has the track record here, and he's not a guy you necessarily need to save for elevated events.

Moderately-owned Pick: Tom Hoge - With several elite players out of the mix due to the status of this event, the list of options is quite small, but Hoge is actually a solid play. His form is good enough and his track record here is solid. There's no need to worry about saving him for later.

Lightly-owned Pick: Will Gordon - As mentioned above, Gordon is a long shot, but I actually like him better for this format than I do on a win ticket as I expect him to play well but likely miss out on the winner's circle. Gordon has been on a run since the start of the season, and I believe he's only going to get better.

Buyer Beware: Xander Schauffele - This is a bit of a layup, as you should always be wary of anyone who withdrew from his previous start. However, I feel I need to mention it just in case anyone forgot. This doesn't mean I expect Schauffele to play poorly, it just means it's very risky to go with him as this week's OAD pick because we don't know if he's healthy.

This Week: Sungjae Im - Im was not my first choice -- that would be Hoge, but I've used him already. Montgomery -- my second choice -- was used during the fall, so I'm at option three, which is Im. It's obvious I'm avoiding all the elite players and many below that level, but that's not the only reason for this pick. Im has a solid track record here, but he's coming off a missed cut, and while that's usually a sign a player's game is off, I'm looking at it as more of a hiccup. This guy plays so often he's bound to miss a cut here or there. Once Im gets back to La Quinta, he will feel the good vibes of his past performances here and find his game again.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Tom Kim ($11,000)
Middle Range: Tom Hoge ($10,200)
Lower Range: Stephan Jaeger ($8,800)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Andrew Putnam - Putnam looks like a good option in other formats as well, as he's coming off a T4 at the Sony Open in Hawaii and his track record here is solid. Putnam finished top-25 here in four of his past six starts and he missed just one cut over that span.

Previous Results