Weekly Preview: The Genesis Invitational

The Genesis Invitational

Riviera CC
Pacific Palisades, CA

The PGA Tour heads back to California for the star-studded Genesis Invitational.

It's not often we see a loaded field in back-to-back weeks, but after witnessing possibly the best group of players ever assembled at the WM Phoenix Open, we will see the same again at Riviera. This event is no stranger to strong fields, but I'd be hard-pressed to find a better one than we have this time, as the top 11 players in the Official World Golf Ranking are all on hand. The field is so strong that for the first time in quite a while, Jon Rahm's odds to win are in double digits! 

We'll get to that in a bit, but for now I want to take a quick look back and review the list of winners here. With a strong field annually, you would expect an impressive list of winners here over the past decade, and while there are plenty of big names who have won, there are also some surprises, like Max Homa last year, James Hahn in 2014 and John Merrick the year before. Those last two did occur almost a decade ago and for the most part, the bigger names have won here, like Bubba Watson three times, Dustin Johnson and Adam Scott, but I'm just throwing it out there that while the temptation would be to stick with the big guns, there's room for a surprise.

All odds via golfodds.com as of 9:00 PM ET Tuesday. 

LAST YEAR

Max Homa shot a final-round 66 on his way to a playoff victory over Tony Finau.

FAVORITES

Jon Rahm (10-1)

As mentioned above, it's a rarity these days that Rahm is anything higher than single digits, but that's where he. The reasons are twofold. First, the field is loaded. It's going to take someone's "A" game to win, and nothing less than Rahm's best will get the job done. Second, he hasn't been at his best recently. He's been in the mix...a little, but he hasn't really threatened over his past couple starts. With that said, his track record here is good enough to make me think that he can win if he just fine tunes his game a little.

Patrick Cantlay (12-1)

Cantlay is the best golfer on the planet right now. As in, if you were forced to choose one golfer to win this week, it would be Cantlay. He doesn't have the resume to claim No. 1 in the world, but if he stays on this track, he will get there. There's a chance that he's just on an extended heater and his play will regress to the mean sometime soon, but he's showing no signs of that and it's not like he was a slouch heading into this season. His track record here is strong, with four consecutive top-20s heading into this year's event.

Dustin Johnson (14-1)

I have to admit, I'm a little surprised to see Johnson ahead of some other names on the odds chart, as he hasn't been anywhere near his best for over a year now. However, it is hard to ignore his track record here. DJ won here in 2017 and has an amazing 10 top-10s in 14 starts here. From 2014-2017, he had a stretch where he finished no worse than T4. He knows this course, he obviously loves playing here, and it's just a matter of where his game is right now. I think he plays well, but I don't see a victory this time around.

THE NEXT TIER

Xander Schauffele (20-1)

To this point in his career, these are the types of tournaments where Schauffele shines. He's obviously looking for a major, but he's done just about everything else besides win a major and if he continues to play well against the strongest fields, eventually he'll get one. Schauffele is coming off a strong showing in Phoenix and appears ready for another victory. His track record here is strong, with four top-25s in four starts, but he'll need to up his game to wind up on top of this field.

Viktor Hovland (25-1)

My theory of Hovland taking over the PGA Tour this season only works if he starts winning soon. He didn't play that well this past week, but it was his first stateside start in 2022, so I'll cut him some slack. Hovland notched a T5 in his first start at this event last year so imagine what he can do with a little course knowledge. He'll need to get his game in better shape, but that could happen at any moment. Expect Hovland to play well and perhaps pull out a win.

Will Zalatoris (30-1)

When we last saw Zalatoris, he was on his way to his first PGA Tour win at the Farmers Insurance Open, but a final-round 71 wasn't enough to pull out a victory. He did land a runner-up, and his time is coming soon. This would be quite the spot for his first victory, but it is really only a matter of time. When that win comes, a number like this will be long gone, so consider that as you make your plays. Zalatoris has played this event just once as a pro and finished T15.

LONG SHOTS

Bubba Watson (40-1)

This has to be the strongest 40-1 number I've ever seen. I wouldn't be surprised to see Watson bet down quite a bit. His track record here is just nonsense. In 15 starts, he has only three top-10s, but those three top-10s are all wins! In other words, he's all over the place here. If he's on, he's got a good chance to win. If not, he's a non-factor. Judging by his past two starts, I'd say he's closer to being "on" than not.

Adam Hadwin (125-1)

Hadwin fits the profile of those surprise winners that I mentioned above. He's had some success on Tour, but not a ton. His track record here is solid, but not spectacular, which is exactly what you'd expect out of a long shot. Hadwin has yet to miss a cut here in seven starts and he's finished no worse than T26 in five of those. He was on his way to a top-5 in Phoenix before a final-round 74 took him out of the running.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Patrick Cantlay - We're only six weeks into the new year and a good chunk of OAD players no longer have Cantlay at their disposal. Among those that do, he's going to see a lot of action this week. Cantlay is simply on a major roll and there's no reason to think he'll slow down. If you still have him, this is a great spot to use him.

Moderately-owned Pick: Dustin Johnson - Are the days of saving DJ for big events past us? The way he's played over the past year or so has not inspired confidence in OAD players, but if I know one thing, it's that those in this format love a strong track record, and that's exactly what DJ brings to the table. I actually kind of like DJ in the sleeper role that's not really a sleeper role. As in, he will be highly used but not many expect him to play well. Does that make sense?

Lightly-owned Pick: Will Zalatoris - He was likely used by quite a few earlier in the year, and with so many good options to choose from, his usage is bound to be pretty low. It's rare that you can get a lot of upside out of a sleeper OAD pick, but that's exactly what Zalatoris provides this week. The only hurdle is his mental state, which could go one of two ways after almost winning in his most recent start.

Buyer Beware: Justin Thomas - Thomas has played well this season, but he's missing that extra gear that often puts him over the top. It's not like he's lost his game, but something is missing right now. His track record here is all over the place, so unless things click, I don't expect a great showing.

Last Week: Hideki Matsuyama - T8 - $248,050

Season Total: $3,186,724

This Week: Bubba Watson - Watson carries some risk at this stage in his career, but he has always been a streaky golfer, and he appears to be locked-in right now. He's always had his favorite courses, and this is certainly one of them. I'm expecting some to be on him this week, but not a ton because of all the flashy options. Others I considered were Hovland and Johnson.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Patrick Cantlay $12,000
Middle Range: Bubba Watson $10,200
Lower Range: Adam Hadwin $8,700

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Bubba Watson - T14

Streak: 2

This week: Dustin Johnson - This is not the safest pick given the way he has played recently, but it's hard to envision a scenario where he plays so poorly that he misses the cut. He has played the weekend 12 times in 14 appearances here and often has been well inside the cut line.