Weekly Preview: The Northern Trust

The Northern Trust

TPC Boston
Boston, MA

The PGA Tour heads to Boston as the FedExCup Playoffs get underway. Like last year there are only three postseason events, so everyone involved needs to make hay early. This season has been unlike any other in the history of the PGA Tour, but there's actually a sense of normalcy now that the playoffs are about to start. The format is one that we are used to, as the fields get smaller each week and the winner takes all in the end. Well, not all, but the $15 million prize for winning the Tour Championship is certainly more than enough to keep everyone's attention. 

The playoffs begin with the Northern Trust Open, which will be held at TPC Boston for the first time. But don't worry, we still have course history, as the Deutsche Bank Championship was held there for over a decade. We will use the results from those tournaments and ignore event history this week. As for playoff history -- yes, there are certain guys that seem to thrive this time of year -- I won't be leaning as much on that. With so much much going on in 2020 I can't trust one's playoff record under these conditions as much as I normally would.

LAST YEAR

Patrick Reed shot a final-round 69 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Abraham Ancer.

FAVORITES

Bryson DeChambeau (11-1)

It seems appropriate that the golfer who has performed the best since the break is the favorite, but as you know that doesn't guarantee a victory. Perhaps the biggest reason DeChambeau is in this spot is his performance on this course in 2018. He won the Deutsche Bank Championship here in 2018 when he wasn't nearly the powerhouse he is now. His game has slowed a little of late, but he's still near the top of his game.

Justin Thomas (13-1)  

It was no surprise to see Thomas fell flat at the PGA Championship just a week after his win at the WGC event in Memphis, but now that he's a few weeks removed he should again be considered a serious threat. Another reason he's near the top of this list? He won on this course in 2017.

Rory McIlroy (15-1)

It's just impossible to keep McIlroy out of the group of favorites. No matter how many times he falls flat, he always ends up back here. He has been mired in a slump lately, but we all know he can turn it around on a dime. Still, should a guy who needs to turn his game around be among the favorites in a loaded field? I think not.

THE NEXT TIER

Dustin Johnson (22-1)

Johnson was in position to win the PGA Championship a couple weeks ago, but as often been the case in majors, he simply ran out of gas in the final round. With that said, his form looks good right now, and this is a big enough event that packs prestige but lacks the pressure of the majors. Johnson has fared well on this course, with two top-10s in his past three starts.

Collin Morikawa (25-1)

Morikawa has had a great season, yet he didn't get much attention before winning the PGA Championship. We all knew he was a good player, but with that major under his belt so early in his career, there's now reason to believe he is a great player. Some golfers might struggle with that, but I have a feeling Morikawa will thrive under those conditions. He gets a chance to move the bar higher over the next few weeks, and if he does, he just might enter the conversation of the best player on the planet.

Daniel Berger (30-1)

The time to doubt Berger has long passed. Sure, he didn't exactly finish in style at the PGA Championship, but the fact that he was again in contention at a high-profile event was more proof he is back to his old self. Berger's track record on this course isn't great, but I dare say that his current form is better than when he played the Deutsche Bank Championship in years past.

LONG SHOTS

Brooks Koepka (35-1)  

Koepka's struggles at the Wyndham Championship were entirely predictable. He was coming off a disappointing finish at the PGA Championship and seemingly had no motivation to play. It's a wonder that he didn't pull out, to be honest. It's not like the FedExCup Playoffs provide a ton of motivation for a guy like Koepka, but there's certainly more to play for than your standard tour stop. Besides, when are you ever going to get odds like this on Koepka again?                

Matthew Wolff (70-1)  

Wolff is the prototypical long shot. He's a risk to miss the cut, but his upside is so high he's worth a look. In other words, it's maximum volatility with Wolff, but that's acceptable from a golfer in this range. You aren't looking for a top-10. You are looking for a win. Wolff has no track record on this course, but that's been the case for him over much of the past 18 months and it has not mattered more often than not.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Bryson DeChambeau - If you can still use him, this is a great spot. Unlike some of the other favorites, there's no reason to save DeChambeau for a major because he has little track record of success on the big stage. But he's just as good as anyone else -- and often times better -- in the next tier of tournaments.

Moderately-owned Pick: Collin Morikawa - After his win at the PGA Championship, Morikawa is bound to be a popular pick over the next few weeks, and I can't argue with his selection anywhere down the line. The only worry is that he will lose some edge after winning that major, but he seems like a fairly level-headed guy who is fully prepared to handle success.

Lightly-owned Pick: Abraham Ancer - Ancer has been one of the more reliable options on Tour in 2020, with four top-15s since the restart. He turned his game up at this time last season, and perhaps he's ready to make a run once again. His track record on this course is limited, but he did manage a T7 in his only start here.  

Buyer Beware: Rory McIlroy - This category has been dominated by Koepka and McIlroy since the restart, and I've been wrong just once. Expectations are always sky high for those two and it's hard to live up to them. Beyond that, McIlroy specifically has not had his best stuff since the restart, and there's little reason to think he's suddenly going to find his "A" game.

Last Week Kevin Kisner (T3) $312,400 

Season Total: $5,551,971  

This Week: Collin Morikawa - On one hand, I feel like I missed out on Morikawa's upside up to this point; but on the other hand, he continues to get better and better and just might not be done yet. As long as he can avoid the hangover from his first major victory, he'll be in the mix again this week, which means a healthy paycheck is coming.       

FANDUEL PICKS  

Upper Range: Collin Morikawa ($11,400)
Middle Range: Abraham Ancer ($9,700)
Lower Range: Jason Kokrak ($8,400)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Kevin Kisner (T3)

Streak: 2

This Week: Adam Scott - While I have faith that Morikawa will come through this week, the slight chance of a letdown is preventing me from using him in this spot. Instead I'll go with Scott, who has appeared in 13 events at this course and has made the cut 12 times.