Weekly Preview: Valspar Championship

Valspar Championship

Innisbrook Resort
Palm Harbor, FL

The PGA Tour heads back to Florida as we inch closer to the PGA Championship. If it feels like an eternity since the last major, well, you're asking for a lot! We don't know how lucky we have it. Do you remember the days when the PGA Championship was at the tail end of the schedule? If that was still the case, we'd only be on month one of a two-month break between majors. I know, that sounds awful. Luckily the schedule changed a few years ago and we shouldn't have to wait out a two-month major break again. Well...the break after the Open Championship until the Masters is nine months, but let's not think about that right now. Let's just be content with these brief breaks, and if we get some memorable moments in the middle, that's even better. The PGA Tour schedule isn't going to produce great finishes every week, though, and we can't have big names winning every event -- that just isn't possible when nearly 50 events are held each year. All we can ask for is either drama or a spectacular performance from an elite golfer. With a couple guys in the field known simply by the initials DJ and JT, maybe we'll get both?

LAST YEAR

This tournament was not held last year, but in 2019 Paul Casey shot a final-round 72 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Jason Kokrak and Louis Oosthuizen.

FAVORITES

Justin Thomas (9-1)

In a turn of events JT is listed ahead of DJ on the odds chart for the first time in a while. Actually, I can't recall the last time Johnson wasn't the favorite. But when you don't win, your odds go up. Thomas has won this season and his game has really come around since a rough start to the year. Looking back, he missed one cut during that stretch -- one cut. It felt like he was spiraling out of control and he missed one cut. That gives you an idea of how much we expect from Thomas. He should be the favorite this week, but his odds are a little light considering he has just one top-10 here in three tries.

Dustin Johnson (10-1)

Even though he's not favored, his odds are still in the same ballpark as they've been most of the season. No, he's not 6-1 like he was earlier, but this number doesn't provide a ton of value unless the golfer is a no-brainer, and although DJ is clearly one of the two best players in the field, his track record here is just average, with one top-10 in three starts.

Corey Conners (14-1)

Conners is one heck of a player and he's only going to get better, but seeing him among the favorites this week is a little surprising. He has played well enough to deserve some respect from oddsmakers, but there are some bigger names just behind him on the chart that will probably jump him before the event starts Thursday. Conners has just one start here and that resulted in a T16 in 2018.

THE NEXT TIER

Paul Casey (20-1)

When it comes to track records at this event, no one can hold a candle to what Casey has accomplished. He enters as the two-time defending champion of this event. It's never easy to defend one title, let alone two, so you can imagine how difficult it will be for Casey to pull off the three-peat, but it's not out of the question. Casey's game is not in the best of shape right now, as he missed the cut in his last stateside start, but I'd imagine his confidence will be at an all-time high when he steps on this track.

Louis Oosthuizen (33-1)

Oosthuizen nearly won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans this past week, and while that's not necessarily a direct snapshot of his individual game, you don't finish runner-up in a team event -- particularly with the final round being alternate shot -- unless both players contribute. Before this past week, Oosthuizen flashed in other spots, such as the WGC-Workday Championship, in which he finished T6. Like some of the other names on the list, his track record here is strong, with top-20s -- including a runner-up in 2019 -- in his past three starts.

Jason Kokrak (35-1)

Kokrak is having a fine season. Not only did he win during the fall portion of the schedule, he posted top-10s in three consecutive starts at a WGC event, the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS. He did his best to carry Pat Perez to the finish line this past week, but the best they could manage was a T21. Kokrak's game is in good enough shape to make a run here this week. His track record at this event is also strong, with top-15s in four of his past six starts here and a T2 in 2019.

LONG SHOTS

Justin Rose (45-1)

Rose is close, as demonstrated by his play at the Masters and his T11 in New Orleans. The question is, which way will he go from here? Rose was No. 1 in the world not that long ago, but since reaching the mountain top, he has struggled with consistency. If he's found something recently, he's a great bargain at this price. Rose has been very consistent here, with nine made cuts in ten tries and top-10s in two of his past three starts.

Charl Schwartzel (200-1)

It's pretty rare that I list anyone with odds this high, but Schwartzel has some value at this number. Schwartzel was Oosthuizen's partner this past week, which means he too is coming off a runner-up showing at the Zurich Classic. You remember what I mentioned above, right? It doesn't matter if you have a teammate -- if you finish runner-up, both golfers were playing well. Schwartzel has some history here as well, as he won this event in 2016 and finished T6 the following year.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Paul Casey - I can't imagine there will be many OAD teams on the top two guys this week, only because they are too valuable down the road. That leaves a pack of players in the middle that might look enticing to many selectors. Leading the way is Casey, who as mentioned previously, won the last two editions of this event. Though another win is highly unlikely, I'm still expecting Casey to play well.

Moderately-owned Pick: Patrick Reed - I couldn't find room for Reed in my picks above because his odds fell in between tiers, but don't let that fool you, he's a solid play this week. Reed missed the cut here in 2019, but prior to that he posted top-10s in three of four starts, including two runner-ups.

Lightly-owned Pick: Jason Kokrak - There are a lot of good options this week -- even outside the favorites -- so a guy like Jason is likely to slip through the Kok-racks...sorry I tried not to go there, but couldn't help myself. Kokrak may not be highly-used this week, so if you are looking to gain some ground, he's a good option in this spot.

Buyer Beware: Dustin Johnson - DJ is a must-start in most formats this week, but I'd be very wary about using him in this one. Johnson has not been on top of his game this season, and while he will turn it around at some point, it doesn't look like this will be the week. DJ did post a T6 in his most recent start here, but he only has three appearances total, which tells us something about his affinity for this course.

Last Week: Collin Morikawa / Matthew Wolff - MC - $0

Season Total: $3,379,138

This Week: Louis Oosthuizen - I'm not sure if "off-the-rails" fully encompasses the state of my picks in this format this season, but it does paint an accurate picture. This past week was a perfect example, as I reached for a duo with one player well off his game because I thought his partner could help. It was a total reach, but at least I can admit it. With that said, moving forward, I'm going to stick to the numbers and not rely on these hunches so much...at least until I get back on track. I'm going with Oosthuizen this week, and while his odds are high, he's got both good form and a solid track record here.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Patrick Reed ($11,600)
Middle Range: Jason Kokrak ($10,600)
Lower Range: Charl Schwartzel ($8,900)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Matt Kuchar - 7

Streak: 4

This Week: Justin Rose - I wasn't sure if I would use Rose in this format this year, but he's shown more consistency of late and his cut-making percentage here is among the best. Not only will Rose make the cut this week, he should make some noise on the weekend as well.