Weekly Preview: Valspar Championship

Valspar Championship

Innisbrook Resort - Copperhead Course
Palm Harbor, FL

The PGA Tour heads back south for this week's Valspar Championship.

The players are heading to Palm Harbor a day later than expected thanks to the Monday finish at THE PLAYERS Championship. Speaking of that event, it really goes to show how a tight finish can be intriguing, even if the golfers involved aren't all that noteworthy. That's no knock on Cameron Smith, Paul Casey, Keegan Bradley or Anirban Lahiri. It's simply a statement that many of those involved at the end had little-to-no impact on fantasy contests or wagers, and that is, after all, a huge part of the excitement in any sporting event. With all that said, the final 18 holes were fascinating, as it looked like Smith would run away with the victory, then he let everyone back in, then he ran away again, and then he opened the door for just Lahiri before ultimately taking home the title.

Enough about last week's event with it's mega-purse, though. Let's talk Valspar. This week's prize money is right in line with most of the events played this year, and the winner will receive what the third-place finisher picked up at TPC Sawgrass. The field has a few big names, but it's obviously not as strong as last week's. The track is a familiar one, so we have plenty of course history to lean on.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 5:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Sam Burns shot a final-round 68 on his way to a three-stroke victory over Keegan Bradley.

FAVORITES

Viktor Hovland (10-1)

Hovland was in rarified air at THE PLAYERS as one of a couple bigger names near the top of the leaderboard on Sunday -- uh, Monday -- afternoon. However, as has often been the case since the start of his professional career, his short game let him down. Hovland is fully aware that his short game is an issue, and the question is whether or not he can do anything about it. If not, he'll remain one of the better players out there. If he can improve, he could become the best player on the planet. As for this week, it makes sense he's the co-favorite, as he placed T3 here in his lone appearance and his form is solid.

Justin Thomas (10-1)

I feel like we've crossed an invisible barrier here, one in which the bigger name is not the favorite simple because he's more noteworthy. That doesn't happen often on the PGA Tour, and although Thomas is still technically atop the board, he is not the only one there. JT is not quite as attractive an option as Hovland, as his track record here is decent, but not great, and his form appears to be good, but also not great. These odds feel a little light.

Collin Morikawa (14-1)

Morikawa was a very popular pick at THE PLAYERS and we all know how that turned out. He, like many other big names, was done in by the draw and failed to make the cut. I'm surprised that result had an effect on his odds, as even with a decent showing he likely would be the co-favorite. I see no reason not to ignore last week's result because of the weather. This is Morikawa's first trip to Copperhead, but I have a feeling he'll be anxious to erase last week's performance from his memory. With that in mind, I like the value here.

THE NEXT TIER

Sam Burns (18-1)

Burns had his moments at THE PLAYERS, but it seemed like he just wasn't familiar enough with the course to compete under those conditions. I should take that back. He played well for most of the week and even found himself in contention for a while, but he was never in position to win. Familiarity will not be an issue this week, as Burns won this event last year and has played the weekend in all three of his appearances. Burns offers a lot of value at this number.

Jason Kokrak (25-1)

There are several golfers at this price this week, but their paths to get there are not at all the same. Kokrak is here mainly because of his track record in this event and not his current form. Kokrak hasn't missed a cut since last October, but he also doesn't have a top-25 since January. His history here looks much better, as he has notched three top-10s in 10 starts, including a runner up in 2019.

Tyrrell Hatton (25-1)

Hatton has taken a much different route to these odds than Kokrak, as he basically has no track record at Copperhead. Well, he did play here in 2019, but that resulted in a missed cut and a short week. The thing about Hatton, though, is that he is streaky, and right now he appears to be running hot. For what it's worth, we're talking about his game and not his temperament, although he likely is still none too pleased after putting his tee shot in the water at No. 17 on Monday. Hatton played very well up until that point, and as long as he can flush the poor finish, he should fare fine this week.

LONG SHOTS

Keegan Bradley (50-1)

I'm not a fan of picks that seem too obvious, and this falls into that category. However, at this rate, how can you not like Bradley? Not only did he contend at Sawgrass until the very end, he finished runner-up at Copperhead in 2021. The counterargument would be that he's drained from this past week's run and his track record here outside of his second-place result is not very impressive. But still, you can deal with some of that at this price.

Harold Varner III (70-1)

There are a handful of guys around here on the odds chart that are coming off a good showing at THE PLAYERS but are being held down by their history at this week's course. Varner looks like the best of the bunch, as he's rounding into a complete player. He still has not picked up that elusive PGA Tour victory, but after winning overseas earlier this year, I have a feeling a win in the States is not far off. Don't look at his track record if you want to make this play. It's not pretty.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Viktor Hovland - Many OAD players have been waiting to use Hovland, and this sure looks like a good spot to deploy him. It's almost too good, if you know what I mean. The one possible fly in the ointment is the long week he's coming off. Other than fatigue, I don't see any reason for Hovland to fall flat at Copperhead. I can't argue with this pick unless you want to try and make up ground on the leaders, because that's not happening with Hovland.

Moderately-owned Pick: Collin Morikawa - I wasn't a huge fan of Morikawa heading into THE PLAYERS, but that was largely due to the conditions, as I didn't want to waste a big name with so much unpredictability in play. Luckily, that shouldn't be a problem this week. The issue is the purse, and whether or not you want to use Morikawa when the winner's share is just a standard amount.

Lightly-owned Pick: Tyrrell Hatton - Hatton is coming off a good performance, but he will be lightly owned because of his history at this track. The question is, will be perform well? My guess is he will, as his form appears solid. It's a risky play, but Hatton has a lot of upside and not many people in your league will be on him.

Buyer Beware: Dustin Johnson - Johnson finished strong at THE PLAYERS, but I'm still not sure he's back to his old self. If we were playing on a track where he's had a lot of success I might buy into the comeback, but he's had little of that on this course, with just one satisfactory result in four tries.

Last Week: Shane Lowry - T13 - $327,222

Season Total: $3,839,346

This Week: Sam Burns - It's not often that my pick is not listed among the names above, but to be honest, I'm not sure where Burns' ownership will be. I'm guessing he will be middle-of-the-pack, but that still provides an opportunity to gain ground on your competition. I did use Burns in the fall, so if you are playing the full season, my second pick would be Hatton. I like Morikawa, but I'm not willing to use him when the winner's share is well below the $2-million mark.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Viktor Hovland $11,900
Middle Range: Keegan Bradley $10,000
Lower Range: Doc Redman $8,400

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Sergio Garcia - T26

Streak: 2

This Week: Louis Oosthuizen - There are a lot of good options to consider this week, so many that it took until the very end to sneak in Oosthuizen. His game hasn't been nearly as sharp as it was last year, but he has made the cut in all but one of his PGA Tour starts this season and he has a solid track record in this event. My only concern is that he played all four rounds at Sawgrass, and that could have a negative effect on him.