WGC-Dell Match Play Preview: Tough Field to Pick

Contrary to popular opinion, that was largely built on the back of Tiger Woods in the 2000s, golfers are not, in fact, robots. The best golfers in the world can falter when you least expect it, and, likewise, golfers just hanging onto their cards each year can look like Jack, Arnie or Tiger for stretches. As was the case Sunday when the likes of Kevin Chappell and Troy Merritt looked like superstars for most of the afternoon and Jason Day looked like a guy struggling to keep it together all day ... until the final act, of course, when Day proved why he's one of the best on the PGA Tour. Proving to be human, each of the final three combatants played outside their normal level on Sunday afternoon. One played below expectations and two played above ... until it mattered most.

Merritt looked the part of the young guy who's not used to being in the spotlight. Although he has one win under his belt already, nerves got the better of Merritt early. It was only after it looked like a win was not in the cards that he turned his game around. Once he was in position for that win, however, the nerves kicked back in and one wayward shot ended his chances.

Kevin Chappell played outside his previous form for most of the day, again, until it mattered the most. A wayward drive on 18 left him little chance to make a par, and that one extra stroke on the 72nd hole was the difference. Day was unlike himself for most of the day, as well. He struggled to find greens, and although his lag putting was on, he wasn't making the bombs we're accustomed to seeing from him. In fact, you could argue that Day never really resembled himself the entire afternoon, he simply managed to hang on.

But that's what great players do, they find a way to win without their best -- a trait even a robot would envy.

This week: WGC-Dell Match Play - Austin Country Club - Austin, Texas

Last Year: Rory McIlroy defeated Gary Woodland.

PLAYERS TO CONSIDER

Paul Casey

Most years, this event is among the most difficult to pick, but this year it's even worse because this will be the first year at this course. That said, certain players, like Casey, thrive under match-play conditions. He finished runner-up at this event in 2009 and 2010 and finished T5 last year. Keep in mind that last year was on a new course as well, so you want to target golfers who played well last year in addition to previous years as to take away course bias.

Charl Schwartzel

A couple things in-play for Schwartzel this week. First, he's fared pretty well at this event over the last decade. He's dropped his first match just once in seven tries. Second, he's coming off a win, so we know his form is solid.

Danny Willett

Willett finished third in his first attempt at this event last year, and while there's no way to know if that was a result of his knack for match play, his feel for the course or his form at the time, it's certainly reasonable to think it could be that he's adept at match play. In a week that's often unpredictable, Willett might be worth a look.
Matt Kuchar

Unlike many big-name players in the field this week, Kuchar actually excels in this type of format. Kuchar won this event in 2013 and has totaled four top-10s at this event in six starts. The only reason he's not at the top of the list is all of his best showings were on one course and last year he lost his first-round match. It is possible that Kuchar simply had a feel for the course they played in his previous five starts.

Bubba Watson

The time to use Bubba is running out, and if you have someone else in mind for Augusta, then he might be your man this week. In five starts at this event, Watson has advanced at least to the second round every time and has advanced past the second round in three of his five starts.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

Rory McIlroy

McIlroy is the defending champion, but a couple things concern me this week. First, as mentioned, it's a new course this year. So, as well as he played last year, we simply don't know if it had more to do with his play or the course. Second, though he's played well in patches this season, he simply can't put two rounds together, and in an event like this, you won't last long with one poor round.

Lee Westwood

More often than not, Westwood has managed to win his first-round match at this event, but rarely has he turned that into much. In 15 starts at this event, Westwood has managed only two top-10s.

Justin Rose

Rose just simply hasn't had much luck at this event over the years. He has won his first-round match more often than not, but he's only advanced past the second round once in 10 starts. Perhaps a new venue will help Rose this week, but considering his play at the majors the last five years, it's simply not worth it to burn him here.

Zach Johnson

Johnson has also struggled in this format, losing more often in the first round than any other round. Johnson has advanced past the second round just once in his 11 starts at this event.

Dustin Johnson

Johnson is yet another big name that hasn't taken to this event over the years. In seven starts at this event, Johnson has advanced past the first round just once. DJ's style doesn't suit this event very well as he often has trouble avoiding the valleys that come with the peaks.

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Last week: Henrik Stenson (T3) - $365,400; Season - $4,988,867

This week: Matt Kuchar - I really struggled with this one, but in the end, Kuchar is the safest pick with the highest upside. Casey was a close second, but I'm going with my gut this week and my gut tells me Kuchar. Advanced analysis, I know. Seriously, though, you could run the numbers for years and never get a clear-cut pick this week -- it's just the nature of match play.

YAHOO PICKS

Points: 1479
Rank: 30,037

This Week:

Group A: Brendon de Jonge, Tony Finau

Group B: David Hearn, Brendon Todd, Luke Donald, Jerry Kelly

Group C: Chesson Hadley, Jonathan Byrd

SURVIVOR PICK

Last week: Henrik Stenson (T3); Streak - 11

This week: No cut